What is it with Nitish Kumar that the Bharatiya Janata Party is not abandoning him? Many political strategists have been racking their brains to figure out an answer. After all, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is at the height of his popularity.
Some say the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) setbacks in the assembly elections in Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Haryana have made Amit Shah risk-averse. He wouldn’t want Kumar to again forge a 2015-type mahagathbandhan or grand alliance comprising the Janata Dal-United (JDU), Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and other parties. And that’s why he has put all speculation to rest by declaring Nitish Kumar the chief ministerial candidate of the BJP-JD(U) alliance in 2020, too.
BJP insiders have a different take on this. Shah’s priority is to finish the RJD first, they say. As per their calculation, a defeat in this election would render Lalu Yadav’s party irrelevant for good. Senior RJD leaders have already started deserting the party and another poll loss would drive the RJD’s mainstay, the Yadavs, into the BJP fold.
Nitish Kumar, 69, is playing his last political innings and once he hangs up his boots, the JD(U) does not have a second line of leadership to stay afloat for long. With the RJD and the JD(U) reduced to political margins, the BJP would become unassailable in Bihar. The long and the short of the story is that the BJP wants to use Nitish Kumar to ‘finish’ the RJD first and then wait for—and work on—Nitish Kumar’s exit from the scene to stake claim to—or usurp—his political legacy.
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BJP turns the heat on regional players
The BJP is following a similar waiting game in Odisha, too. It emerged as the principal opposition party in the 2019 assembly election, relegating the Congress to the third position. One would expect Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to build on these gains and arm-wrestle with Naveen Patnaik. Instead, the BJP befriended him to ensure Biju Janata Dal’s support to its government in Parliament. Their camaraderie is such that the BJP wouldn’t reward former BJD leader Baijayant Panda even with a Rajya Sabha berth for shifting his loyalty to the BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Again, BJP insiders say, Modi and Shah would rather wait for Patnaik, who would be 74 in October, to hang up his boots. Once Patnaik, who has also not developed a second line of leadership in the party, is out of the arena, the BJD is there for the BJP to break and take. With the Congress virtually irrelevant in Odisha today, the BJP can look forward to dominating the state politics the way the BJD has for two decades.
Modi and Shah are, however, going for the jugular in other states dominated by regional players. The Modi government needed them in its first innings because the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was far short of a majority and it needed the help of other parties for parliamentary approval of contentious bills. As it is, the NDA is comfortably placed in the 245-member Rajya Sabha with the BJP alone having 85 seats as against the Congress’ 40. Even if one counts the MPs of the strident anti-BJP parties (as of today) such as the Left, the Trinamool Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and a few others, the Congress and its allies can’t match up to the BJP’s own tally. The NDA’s MPs and the nominated members put together are barely a dozen short of the majority mark in the Rajya Sabha today, while there is a long queue of floating voters ready to support the Modi government on the Floor of the House.
The Modi government, therefore, doesn’t need to indulge regional parties any longer. Besides, while the BJP was in pursuit of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ and was consolidating its gains at the Centre and in states where its main rival was the Congress, it was the regional parties that served as a bulwark against the grand old party. These regional parties have successfully decimated the Congress in many states, creating a vacuum for the BJP to fill in and expand.
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In West Bengal, the BJP is going for the kill as Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress remains the only challenger, with the Left and the Congress vacating the opposition space for the saffron party to occupy. Banerjee, 65, still has a lot of politics left in her and the BJP couldn’t afford to bide its time.
Like Naveen Patnaik, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana chief ministers—Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and K. Chandrasekhar Rao—have been acting like BJP allies for all practical purposes. Needing their support in Parliament until recently, the saffron party let these two regional satraps fight it out with the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party. A key BJP strategist, however, told me that these two states are the “natural next stop” for the party in its southern journey.
The BJP has found “a fertile ground” for it in Telangana, which has 13 per cent Muslim population and prominent Muslim leader Asaduddin Owaisi of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as an ally of the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). The saffron party won four of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the state—as against TRS’ 9 and Congress’ 3—in 2019. The Congress may not be politically irrelevant in Telangana yet—as it has become in Bihar, Odisha or West Bengal—but the BJP has reasons to go for the kill.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress, as also the BJP, drew a blank in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. With the TDP, led by 70-year-old Chandrababu Naidu, showing no signs of revival and CM Reddy being accused of “minority appeasement”, it’s an ideal situation for the BJP to swing into action. The party sent two of its young MPs—Prathap Simha of Mysore and Tejasvi Surya of Bengaluru South—to meet actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan of the Jana Sena Party early this year. The BJP would like Kalyan to merge his party with it and become its face in Andhra. These are early days, but the BJP has started turning the heat on Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, too. The CBI is already on Reddy’s tail in the disproportionate assets case.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s demise has made the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), a BJP ally, vulnerable. The BJP has reasons to hope for a foothold in the state where the Congress ceded its space in the late 1960s to Dravidian parties and is struggling to retain its relevance through alliances with them since then.
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Congress’ blinkered vision
Even as the BJP goes after the regional parties now, the Congress continues to solely focus on the BJP. The grand old party lost its pre-eminent position in Indian politics because of the rise of regional parties, but it remains obsessed with the BJP, expending its entire energy in countering Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta pointed out, the BJP has 92 per cent success record against the Congress on seats won in 2019. And the victory margins on most of these seats are in the lakhs. The Congress is still obsessed with the BJP, instead of trying to better its score against regional players who offer a better chance.
As the BJP finally marches into regional players’ bastions, the Congress’ space for political manoeuvring is shrinking by the day. Modi and Shah have launched Phase II of the BJP’s expansionist political agenda, but the Congress can’t see it, thanks to Rahul Gandhi’s obsession with Modi.
Views are personal.
In this story, It seems Modi, Shaw are 40+their targeted opposition leaders are nearing 70.Cheran
Another print opinion piece with lazy analysis. Point 1 of the article says that BJP wants to occupy the regional parties space now that it has decimated the Congress. The BJP has not decimated the Congress, the regional parties have done so. In state after state – TN, UP, Bihar, Orissa, WB, Maharashtra, Telengana-AP, Assam and Delhi the regional parties have all arisen after taking over the Congress votes – the core BJP supporters have not shifted loyalties much. Point 2 of the article says that BJP is trying to wrest the support base of the regional parties -this analysis again does not hold water. Regional parties have 2 main base of support – caste support and minority support. The BJP may wean away caste support but minority support will elude it. These minorities who support regional strongmen have 2 options – a. vote for Muslim parties like Owaisi but Owaisi can never hope to win support of anyone else or b. Vote for the main opposition party which will eventually be the Congress. The Congress has enough support of centrist and uncommitted voters all over India to emerge as a real opposition if regional party votes are added to its tally. If minorities also support it, Congress can give a real run to the BJP for its money even with Modi. In the post Modi and post RG era, if the regional parties are not around, I think we may have a real option of a viable 2 party democracy. Regional parties need to go and I think silently the Congress seems to be egging Modi and Shah along. That is why RG spends all his time targeting BJP. It also explains why BJP desperately targets RG, no other opposition leader has his pan-India appeal. If the Congress was so dead, the BJP wouldn’t waste it’s time on RG or trying to woo Congressmen into its fold.
I am eager to know BJP’s plans for Kerela. Fed up of Lal Salam and PFi
I am eager to know BJP’s plans for Kerela.
BJP is building castles in sand. Some journalists like the author of this article are unable to see it. No political parties have been wiped out by the BJP, least of all the Congress. They are merely going through a helplessness or inactivity phase. When pitted against the saffron way of sinful thinking, each such party represents “a somewhat just way of thinking”, and such thinking doesn’t die. They are not physical entities that can be destroyed. When the BJP eventually becomes weak, through a few deaths or a few defeats, these parties will rise up again like a sphinx
Phoenix, sir, not sphinx.
Vijayee bhav, dear BJP.
That’s like saying, Vijayee bhava, RAKSHAS!!
Chamche ki jali
Well at least Kerala will not go down without a battle . Tamil Nadu also
Is this the best of political analysis from Print? This might surprise you, but this is only natural to happen in a multi-party federal system… like DUHH!! If you’re reading this Coupta, let me have a crack at it… I can do a better job that whatever this was.
And also, the writer’s lack of knowledge about Southern Politics is simply hilarious. How can editors approve of this weak sauce
Congress is virtually a dead corpse . No infusion of oxygen by tube from any ventilator can bring back life in any corpse , Similarly no amount of political gymnastics can make it an gymnast competing for GOLD MEDAL at any coming hustings. Its next destined destination is grave yard or cremation ground of HISTORY. Likewise – nature , political environment abhors vacuum . So the space from which Congress has been ejected by the voters of different states , will have to be claimed by any other political entity . Of all the political outfits available today, BJP seems to have some advantage , that is known to every body. Even it is absolutely important for BJP to increase its sphere of influence to all virgin areas where it has so for not been able to make its headway, as bulk of its seats have come already from the areas from which further increase is not possible .
When did TDP become anti BJP? By the look of it Chandrababu is dying to get close to NAMO again.
Finally some good analysis by the reporter. Also they should have focused on Kerala and TN as well. It would be good know the strength of Stalin in TN and left parties in Kerala.
Impeccable planning for India’s political future. Kuchh khayaal economy ka bhi rakha jaye toh fifty years in power are guaranteed.
Kaise karenge economy thik? Fake degrees se?
BRILLIANT ANALYSIS. On dot understanding. The TN story could have been more elaborative. Perhaps the writer has little knowledge and hence chose to avoid taking this head-on.
That is not strange in politics. What Congress tried in the past but failed, that now BJP too doing.
Why do you portray it as BJP’s fault if Congress is run by the corrupt and incompetent?
BJP can count on Hindu votes which is now Strong Polarized United and consolidated although Muslims and Christians working to divide Hindu votes on Caste lines.Muslims are more vocal against BJP and Hindus.But Christians are working behind.Many Hindus converts to Islam and Christians are working against BJP..BJP is not strong enough to take them heads on