After the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Rahul Gandhi made his resignation from the post of Congress president sound like an act of principled resistance against the party’s old guard. He seemed to have a tough time even saying the obligatory words about taking responsibility for the defeat.
Perhaps, the real reason Rahul Gandhi stepped down is that he sensed continuing defeat in imminent state elections. Resigning would be a good way of letting the old guard take responsibility for those defeats. The stupendous victory of the BJP with 303 seats made it look like a foregone conclusion that the Narendra Modi and Amit Shah-led party would sweep Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections that were to be held in the following months. The Congress was never going to be a factor in the Delhi assembly election.
In fact, a state election victory that Rahul Gandhi can jump in to take credit for, and use that to return as party president, is nowhere in sight even now. It was this sort of calculation that took him many years to go from vice-president to president in 2017.
As it happened, the Congress as a junior ally of the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha got the treasury benches in Ranchi. Sharad Pawar stitched an unlikely coalition with the Congress and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, which should have caused Rahul Gandhi much heartburn. The party won more seats in Haryana than anyone had anticipated, making it clear that if they had sacked Rahul Gandhi’s chosen leader much earlier, they could even have won the state election. Had Rahul Gandhi not resigned as party president, he could have taken credit for these results and suggested that he can rise from the ashes.
These ups and downs of state elections will continue. And they are an annoyance for Prime Minister Narendra Modi too, who has, in his typical undemocratic way, suggested ‘one nation, one election’.
Narendra Modi has separated his narrative from that of the BJP at the state level. Remember how the BJP campaigns in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2018 were not centred around Modi? In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, voters judged Modi in a national sense, and gave very different verdicts in many states just before and after the Lok Sabha polls.
Separating national and state politics is how Modi has decimated coalition politics at the national level. Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party, and the opposition sentiment at large, continue to make the mistake of seeing the Lok Sabha election as the big final that the state elections lead up to. The Congress made this mistake in 2017, for example, with Rahul Gandhi putting all his eggs in the Karnataka election basket. Presuming victory in the Karnataka assembly election, the Congress thought it would go from strength to strength leading up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
Rahul Gandhi — or anyone desirous of defeating Narendra Modi — must forget state elections.
Also read: Absent on ground, focused online — how Rahul Gandhi’s Covid strategy contrasts with BJP’s
A 3–year plan
Instead, a national opposition should look at planing a series of campaigns for the next three years: 2021, 2022 and 2023. The keyword here is planning.
Modi plans his campaigns way in advance. One campaign leads to another, making for Modi’s permanent campaign. That is what the Congress needs to do as well. Give up ad-hocism. To set the agenda, plan your own campaigns. From 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2023. The Congress should know by now what campaigns it is going to take to the people in these three years.
That is what Rahul Gandhi should be dedicating himself to. Let Ahmed Patel take care of state politics. Let Priyanka Gandhi take care of factional fighting. You know that unemployment, poor growth and stagnant wages are going to remain a big issue for some time. Plan a year-long campaign around them. No matter who wins the next state assembly election, these issues aren’t going away. In fact, inflation might be added to them.
Don’t be impatient and expect to be rewarded in the form of state elections. Be an intelligent investor: invest for the long run and have patience. Only three years.
Also read: Art 370, CAA, triple talaq, Ram Mandir are just one cycle of Modi’s ‘permanent revolution’
How to plan for 3 years
The question, then, is how do you plan a series of campaigns for three years?
Very simple. Make a bullet list of all your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. List all your SWOT analysis points. Even the smallest of them. You may not be able to see all of them, or their scale, which is why you need a survey.
Having made this list, create a campaign around each point. If you closely observe Modi’s endless campaigns, this is what he does. Each campaign has a specific objective. Hindutva is his strength so he campaigns around it. Nationalism is his strength so he campaigns around it. Falling GDP growth and unemployment are a threat to him, so he pre-empts the threat with campaigns like ‘New India 2022’ or ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’.
Before 2014, Modi had a weakness. He wasn’t very well known in rural north India. So he did a campaign just to address that. He got farmers from across India to participate in giving an iron instrument, such as sickles or spades, for the Statue of Unity. Be it farmers or Dalits or upper castes, Modi systematically lists his weaknesses and obviates them through campaign or policy (they’re the same for him).
Also read: Rahul Gandhi and Congress party can strike a fine balance in taking on Narendra Modi
A SWOT analysis of Rahul Gandhi
What are Rahul Gandhi’s strengths? The legacy of the Congress party, the rights-based laws of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), his popularity in parts of south India, and having a few state governments. Rahul Gandhi should be devising and campaigning around each of these.
What are his weaknesses? He is a poor orator, makes too many gaffes, is seen as a serial loser, disappears for days on end and appears inconsistent. He can devise campaigns to obviate each of these. Don’t give extempore speeches and instead use recorded video. Take up one issue and march from one end of India to another for it. People call you a loser? Play the underdog. Own the ‘Pappu’ insult and turn it on its head. The only way to make these happen is to devise long-running campaigns around them.
What are the opportunities before Rahul Gandhi? Far too many to count. Modi’s unkept promises, the bullet trains in the air, the black money not recovered from abroad, poor economic growth, unemployment, Dalit angst… none of these will become electorally relevant unless the Congress party campaigns to make the most of them. With every passing day, the ‘anti-incumbency’ against the Modi government keeps rising, but because no opposition party exploits it, Modi is able to prevent an anti-incumbency sentiment from crystalising. If you want to see how an opposition leader should exploit rising multi-term anti-incumbency, just study how Modi-Shah do their anti-incumbency campaigns.
What are the threats to Rahul Gandhi? They are Hindutva, fake news, Modi’s personality cult, corruption cases against Congress leaders, and so on. Once again, pre-emptive campaigns can be designed. If Rahul Gandhi does a campaign around Truth for a month, for example, his own Satyagraha, he could drill into people’s heads that a lot of ‘Pappu’ stories they hear about him are fake news.
Also read: Not young versus old, Congress battle is between two failed guards
Execution is everything
Lastly, making a plan is useless unless you stick to it. Opposition leaders are always found postponing their campaigns while Modi’s campaigns never stop. Sticking to the campaign plan is so important for Modi that he doesn’t let a pandemic come in the way of activating the Ram Mandir construction campaign, a campaign that will no doubt continue consistently until early 2024, each step of which Modi would have planned out on an Excel sheet already.
That’s a simple four-point guide to defeating Modi in 2024. 1) Forget state elections. 2) Do a SWOT analysis. 3) Make a campaign around each of your SWOT points. 4) Stick to this plan for the next 3 years, no matter what.
The author is contributing editor, ThePrint. Views are personal.
No steps necessary. In next elections, Modi sent out like Advani by new generation Scindias and Industriallists and Amit Shah also wants atleast 2 terms as PM so he takes chance like Modi in 2014 on Advani
How much is Gandhi Family and INC paying ThePrint to give out SWOT analysis on defeating Modu Govt? Keep that money safe, because Rahul ain’t going to win in 2024 or anytime in future. This country is done with INC and it is end of congress era. Mark our words, people of India will show you your place ‘The Print’
Dhanyavad for being a true Bharatiya. We don’t want drunkards, cheats and corrupted people ruling our Govt. I was feeling very uneasy the past days thinking that no. of people who can think in favour of the nation has reduced considerably. But I was wrong. People like you Sir/ Madam, have removed my worries for a long time now.
The Print, The Quint and all the Western media are propagandists paid to disrepute our Govt. They know very well this isn’t BJP – Khangress. They know this is not “Sanatani – Muslim”. They just want to get into power to do what they want. Just what they want. THEY DON’T CARE FOR THE INDIAN PUBLIC !! THEY THINK THEY ARE DYNASTIC RULERS !
We are not going to allow these people to get into power ever.
Yes now Scindias and Industrialists directly rule BJP for next elections
So a media publication is clearly planning for a political party’s defeat. Good keep it up ???.
Public is goona show you your right place.
Correct. These ultras will be put to their places. We know who is right who is wrong. How come The Print PREDICT ANYTHING ?!
They are clearly hypocrites and paid literary bigots.
Shivam vij to amit shah- aap elections choriye ye main kr deta hu aap dream 11 pr team bnaye 🙂
Shivam vij to amit shah- aap elections choriye ye main kr deta hu aap dream 11 pr team bnaye
Kya phookta hai beyyy ???
Tera Commitment to Barkha aur Rajdeep se bhi zada nikla re Vij, tere liye 2 Pidi biscuits…kha le
Bro, agar formula kaam nhi kiya toh paise refund hoga na bro????
Mr. Shivam Vij as a journalist you should atleast pretend to be unbiased. This piece is clearly agenda driven and then you use propaganda as a term liberally. Why don’t I see articles on how BJP came conquer Kerala constituency with these following steps from you? Mr. Gandhi can take care of himself I believe. If spoon-feeding your ideological representatives is journalism then allow me hand myself on a pork platter.
1.I dont know who has authored this anti Bharat Article–some unknown, not worth knowing chap.
2. But this News paper ( i am forgetting its name) should at least have the moral sense to distinguish between the only STATESMAN politician and PM Bharat has seen.
2.1. Sure, this man of humble origins has managed to attract the allegiance of the intellectual , patriotic elite of India like me, though his honesty , enterprise and NATION FIRST POLICY unlike the Italians that the fellow who has written this and the so called editor ( i dont know his name either) of this so called news paper are craving, should rule India, continuing the run of the Dynasty thrust on Bharat by some Gandhi.
3. I would like to believe that the Modi Govt has a well thought out strategy to eliminate the internal enemies of Bharat as promised.
4. having said this, the intellectual elite of Bharat would definitley have given Modi better ideas in speedier use of LEGITIMATE STATE POWER to eliminate the internal enemies of the Nation in the Opposition and elsewhere.
5. I am sure, the so called editor of papers like this and the fellow who has written this , will also get chance to enjoy life in tihar soon!
Hi bhakt
Please get out
Clearly generating propaganda for Left, and you say you are unbiased. This is wrong. People online are following such Leftist Media Houses blindly and cursing TV Media for bias. What an irony. Media houses like The Print have access to the entire world audience and they are using this position wrongly by defaming Right Wing and even Hindus. This must stop. We really want Unbiased Media.
It is not possible for rahul to do this. So its better for the cheap and biased media group print to do so on behalf of Congress and rahul Gandhi.
Worthless article.. This author is just a Pappu devotee. Shame on this author. Should never call himself a journalist .
All jannatis,katwas,chamchas of congress support RAGA to win 2024 but RAGA supports BJP And NARENDRA MODI.?
Meanwhile, Shekhar Gupta to his staff will be like. “ Kuch seekho Shivam se, Launda har time 100 comments par karta hain”
How can Soniya Antanio’s agenda to launch Rahul and Priyanka Vadra and then Miraya Vadra may the agenda of Indians ????
Today’s voters are very well educated and google everything daily basis. They are not going to believe whatever you are going to tell. Infact they have make their faith in True Nationalist News Media channels and that why people like Shekhar Gupta needs funds and news news channels like NDTV are in bade shapes.
Actually such people need to realise that new era in India has been started after 2014 which directly getting their motivation and energy from before 1857 and 10000 years ago Hindus Civilization.
( Not only after 1947). And in this theory Motilal Nehru–Jawaharlal Nehru — Indira Ghndy–Sanjay- Rajeev–Soniya Antanio–Rahul–Priyamka Vadra no where perfect fit now.
Bullshit maniac andha bhakt article of modi hater and pappu lover
Will shivam Vij put his money where his mouth is? Will Shivam chop off his beard if Rahul does exactly what shivam advises and still lose the lection?
The print should focus on realistic issues like popu control,uniform civil code rather than fuming at a honest prime minister
Are you dumb modi is a liar just see about his scripted Interview you’ll realize
Ohk.
Modi is a liar. All the corruption charges and scandals committed by the “Gandhi” family and their allies are all lies. Let’s leave that for a moment as a congi can always argue that they are a conspiracy.
The fact that no one from your favourite family (or your hopeless Maharaja – “Rahul”) wants to play active part in state politics, while he goes out on long vacations abroad & sometimes in India is also a lie. His “wonderful” statistics about active participation in the Parliament vs a 14-18 hour work day by the current PM & the fact that the CG employees too have to work equally hard at all levels is also a lie. The current government removed article 370 while congis want to get it back & it wasn’t helping them or their allies but the people of J&K are all fucking lies. Better you get your facts right and stop this stooge mentality of supporting the “Royal” & support true merit unless you are loosing out on anything personally. I can go on & on about the merits of the current government while the list of shit of the “Gandhi family” – whether pertaining to corruption or to their merit and capabilities to be able to lead the country ever again shall be even longer.
God, give it a break. Same recycled shit from this Print hack, a.k.a presstitute.
Ad nauseum and ad infinitum….. And then beggars like Shekhar Gupta want readers to fund this load of crap.
these articles which are forecasted in “the print” or “the wire” are opinions of Pakistan media and i dont understand these authors steal article from pak or they write on own!!! or may be genetic mistake of their parents make them to write these bullshit alakbulak thoughts they get into their minds
Keep your personal views to yourself. Anti national.
I hope you will also be in favour of reforming anti mushrik Ayats of Quran??
SWOT analysis hahahaha.
Maybe RG does listen to advice like this to be in the situation he is in. On a serious note , Mr. Vij as a contributing editor, needs a reality check. High school students have better points in their essays than the so called journalist with click-bait headlines and sub- standard content.
Really. High schoolers have better essays. I understand Print airing all shades of opinion. But such pedantic nonsense? It’s more shallow and superficial than what even most ardent critics of Modi would articulate.
Sycophancy at its best. The author should join the party and wait for 2029 or next. Let Rahul try to handle the any post with all responsibility .The idea of the article is only how you can oust Modi. An independent media house working as a mouth piece of congress party and you have published similar articles in the recent past praising Rahul from another author.
Agree with each word. Only for 3 years must Rahul Gandhi do this and that.. what about him, an inconsistent non motivating leader like him running the vast country that India is?
The Print and even Shekhar Gupta seems to have become polarized and do not seem to be neutral anymore
The focus of the article is not so much on defeating Modi but how Rahul Gandhi be made Prime Minister. If one sees the trend of post -2019 state elections Congress is not the winner but regional parties are: Shiv Sena & NCP in Maharashtra, JMM in Jharkhand etc. So, even if Modi is defeated in 2019, why it is not possible that a regional Chhatrap will occupy PM’s seat? Even within Congress, powerful Chief Ministers like Gahalot and Amarinder Singh are not heeding to Rahul Gandhi or High Command. Blind allegiance to one person, whether he is Modi or Rahul is harmful. People of the country deserve better than that.
To put it bluntly, Indian elections are all about caste. Dominant castes have absolute faith in present dispensation. Congress long back ceased to effectively look after their interest. For them economic progress ( which looks after country’s prosperity, security, stability etc ) don’t matter so long their interests are not safeguarded.
The more pappu campaigns the more congress loses.congress can only win by junking gandhi vadra family for some other face.if that does not happen congress will be reduced to a regional party from national party very soon.
This article is a pathetic shit. First get the Congress party to vacate all the real estate in Delhi where it is sitting for ages on tax payers money. Then they, congress,can hire this author as their spokesperson and political consultant. It’s the people of India who vote for the person/ party to work for them, not such armchair goodies.
Only a more toxic and more hateful ideology can defeat the present one. But does it help the nation?
It is a matter of a great concern that ThePrint and a section of media is so a
obsessed with the task of installing the dynasty and the party –Congress party , which could not get clear majority during last three and half decade on its own . ( last time it got majority of its own was in1984 under tragedic circumstances ) . Do the honorable journalist think that voters of India will become stupid enough to reverse this trend –IF AND ONLY IF THEIR CHOSEN DYNAST – start behaving in way Mr. Vij is advising him. ? ? It seems he is only a paid- advertising copy writer who writes as directed by his dynast pay-masters . Other wise he would have written after doing some research, studying the political trends and would have extrapolated the rise and fall of two contesting parties of present day India, – BJP and Congress party . Is Bjp going downhill ? Was its rise was one or two time fluke event ? The reason for fall of congress and rise of BJP are structural and are as per similar trends witnessed in other democracies of the world. These reasons have been internalized and ingrained in the specific DNA of both parties. and germs of growth –in case of BJP and germs of DECAY – — IN CASE OF congress too visible to be ignored by any political commentator.
There is no use comparing RG with Modi . The Vijs of ThePrint or India can not reverse the political trend by turning out trash like this article.
ThePrint is supposed to be a portal which publishes article of high intellectual standards. Do not make it mouth-piece of a departing political entity .
Best option is to appoint Sri.Modi as the chief strategist of congress. Any way you are copying his strategies. So in 2024 Narendra Damodar das Modi will work as the chief strategist and Shivam Vijayan will be his deputy.
The writer and people like him have been obsessed with defeating Modi, through RG. Do these guys even realise, the cost that the country would have to bear, for having RG as PM. Do these guys even have an iota of love for this country?…. Modi can be defeated… he is not infallible….but such a person will have to provide better leadership, will have to provide a better idea of india….. You cant defeat him by propping up a nincompoop as a leader….a person who cant even take control of his party…. and worst ran away at the prospect of a defeat….. Good luck to these guys….
And then you call yourself independent, unbiased media. LoL
Why would a media house write such content and begging for money?
You guys will not survive. People no more take media’s sh*t.
Why bother to bring some one who can’t even take responsibility of his own deeds. The present is the fact and is quite endearing
no need make people s mind sway in direction which has no future.
1. Strange objective of ‘how to defeat Modi’ instead of ‘how to deliver better governance than the current one to the country’
2. Reeks of appeasement to Rahul Gandhi, a person who inexplicably (or maybe not) keeps receiving innumerable ‘second’ (245th?) chances from sections of the media.
No wonder Congress is unable to shed its ‘heredity’ focus, as long as there are people around that are apparently blinded to the utter lack of either ability, experience or qualification, by their sycophancy towards the dynasty.
Why a so called neutral media wants modi to be defeated in next election and that too not by a strong opposition but by a failure like Rahul Gandhi
Shivam Vij – you are hired as campaign manager for 2024 election championing opposition! You are an asset to ruling BJP! Wonderful to have a freewheeling English language blogger with random thoughts on politics as campaign manager!
Why you should worry for the defeat of BJP or any other party? Let the parties do it for themselves and people are not fools which you think. Shameless article.
Why would you vote for Modi when corona is 26 lakhs and it will cross 1 lakh death . We need congress back to restore order . This is like a stupid ekta Kapoor episode kundhali Bhagya . Never ending Modi . Time for him to go
It will worse if congress where in power more people will have lose theirs life. Congress just speak lies etc n they don’t take actions remember this brother .
Why are journalists so bent upon converting brothel into a church?
What have they seen in RG in so many years?
He’s moody, politically immature and inconsistent.
Have they found single leadership quality in him or any existing congress leader who can face today’s dangerous international challenges post Covid?
The tone of this article simply highlights aspiration of those sulking congress Supports who still after fulfilling RGs wet dreams.
I agree and totally support that there should be strong and meaningful opposition, something like Mr Vajpayee, Advani, Sushma, Jaitly led over the years and created made people take them seriously.
It would have been more meaningful if this article had tried to highlight emerging Dangerous world order and challenges post Covid both domestic as well as international and what opposition leader must have in it to face those challenges as effectively as Modi if not better.
To all those journalists, please don’t make mistake of categorising all Modi gov supporters in “Bhakt”.
Many educated young boys and girls like us look at qualities like total dedication, un-corruptability, leading from front, no-nonsense, decisiveness and guts. We see all these qualities to max level in present PM.
Lastly don’t write articles on how to defeat Modi by hook or crook strategy, instead write article to highlight qualities opposition leader will need who can demonstrate above qualities by at least 70% if that’s too much to ask.
Please stop pushing RG and present dynasty.
Don’t try to convert brothel into church..
Or how about do some work in the states you govern or atleast in your own constituency, lest you loose it like in 2019. The author things elections have nothing to do with real work but just campaigning.
Mr. Vij just said the same thing multiple times. Should be Modi Ji’s campaign manager in ‘23-‘24.
Why do you want to prop up a failed and corrupt leader? Are you journalists missing your privileges under Modi? It is absurd to even dream of Pappu to be PM of the country. Looks like you guys are being paid by enemy countries to get the country a stupid leader and put the country in crises. People of this country are no fools to elect such corrupt family back to power! The more you hate Modi, the stronger he is going to come back for sure. 2024 it will be 400+ for NDA. Don’t be surprised if Pappu loses his wynad seat also.
the biggest threat to india is fake news FROM congress-backed sources and raghoul ghandy’s fan club. like this one.
its very interesting that indian based news media like yours, which ought to present india at least neutrally if not positively, only focuses on the negative stuff and makes it sound like our country is a black hole of despair. very interesting / disgusting.
this is nothing but a mafia.
Vij should quit journalism and be an election consultant like ,who else , prashant kishor .But I doubt if Vij would have any success if he continues backing rahul gandhi against modi , rahul gandhi as far as I am concerned is Modi’s Brahmashtra , he just has to remind people of India about who they are going to get if he loses , the thought must terrify the indian electorate and that is what explains the difference in state and national elections .
Focus on state election especially on Assam,Gujurat,karnataka,chhatisgargh and madhya Pradesh
The quality of this article is not worthy to be judged.Please improve writing skills.
Vij is such a person, pay him money and ask him to write about his parents. He will write. Shameless person
The Print media is one of the most bogus, biased and unrealistic. Even most of their content is anti national and they serve shit to their readers. The Print gives half information and speaks partial truth which is utter disgusting. People are not going to get into your trap and propaganda. Really very disappointed.
Shivam Vij , you being the fascist left bet on Rahul Gandhi who has been rejected by people of India. You fascists love family rule not democratic rule. What a mind a mind set.