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MacroSutra

How RBI’s inflation targeting regime has had a stabilising influence on price rise in India

Adopted by India in October 2016, the inflation targeting framework gives flexibility to the RBI to also focus on growth without undermining its inflation control objective.

Prudence over populism — why Modi govt must resist rolling out big-ticket schemes in Budget 2023

In the next budget, last of Modi govt's 2nd term, announcing a glide path to a deficit target of 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26 would lend credibility to its fiscal consolidation initiatives.

It’s Happy Diwali for economy despite inflation, recession fears. But seasonal joy must sustain

Moving holidays, like Diwali, deeply impact economic data. However, this should not be mistaken as a leading indicator of the long-term performance of segments.

RBI’s digital rupee concept has many pros, but also some risk to India’s financial stability

CBDCs have the potential to lead to greater financial inclusion, but a concept note issued by the Reserve Bank of India also rightly places emphasis on consumer protection.

Real estate, IT, gig jobs, MNREGA: Making sense of India’s roller-coaster unemployment crisis

Employment in India rose from 394.6 million in August to 404.2 million in September, and while the numbers are still below pre-Covid levels, the increase is encouraging.

India’s falling forex reserve isn’t a worry for now, but RBI has a tightrope walk ahead

With US Fed hiking rates, RBI might be pushed to increase its own rates to slow simultaneous fall of rupee & India's forex reserves. But this could also hurt economic growth.

Bank credit has bounced back, but rising interest rates & inflation can be new hurdles

Despite rising interest rates, bank credit growth rose to a nine-year-high last month. While credit to MSMEs has shown consistent double-digit growth, it’s large industries that have really helped.  

Why volatile food prices will keep the heat on India’s consumer inflation level this year

Lower rainfall in some parts of the country is expected to keep food prices elevated in the coming months. Which means inflation will be above 6%.

Falling exports, rising imports show why India has to look within to push growth for now

Boosting competitiveness is the key to enhancing exports. Inflation remains an issue but RBI should allow the rupee to gradually depreciate.

Don’t sneer at 13.5% GDP growth. But consumption, investment critical in future quarters

Q1 GDP numbers show uneven recovery and pace of growth is likely to moderate due to global headwinds and mixed monsoon.

On Camera

What’s geopolitical recession? World seems to be heading for one

The long-term rise of China and the 'Global South', combined with a decline of European and Japanese economic power is driving a fundamental shift.

With defence push, India looks to capture markets in Africa beyond western Indian Ocean

India’s defence sector is trying to penetrate the African market. But with China already extending significant influence, India must now play catch-up.      

Abki baar 90 paar for Congress? Why even 30 more seats will ruffle BJP

Discussion about outcome of Lok Sabha polls continues to boil in cauldron of expectations only from BJP. Now reverse this equation, what if we asked about the performance of the 'loser'?