New Delhi: The Congress is likely to retain power in Chhattisgarh and also form the government in Telangana by dislodging the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may retain power in Madhya Pradesh and is the favourite to win in Rajasthan, a majority of exit polls predicted Thursday evening.
All polls except one predicted a hung assembly in Mizoram. It may be noted here that exit polls are not always accurate in their predictions.
ThePrint looked at six exit polls — ABP News–CVoter, News24–Today’s Chanakya, IndiaToday–MyAxis, India TV–CNX, Republic TV–Matrize, and TimesNow ETG.
As given in the tables below, three of them predicted a clear majority for the BJP and two for the Congress in Rajasthan, while one suggested a hung house.
In Madhya Pradesh, four exit polls have predicted a clear win for the BJP, while one suggested a hung assembly. ABP News–CVoter was the sole outlier as it predicted 113-137 seats for the Congress and 88-112 for the BJP in the 230-member assembly.
In Chhattisgarh, the exit polls were unanimous in predicting a win for the Congress.
In Telangana, the Congress seems headed to dislodge the BRS, which has been in power since 2014 when the state was formed.
In Mizoram, all except one exit poll predicted a hung assembly with the ruling Mizo National Front likely to emerge as the single largest party. The India Today-MyAxis exit poll gave the Zoram People’s Movement, a party formed in 2017, 28-35 seats in the 40-member assembly.
The results for the assembly polls conducted in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana — the voting for which was held between 7 and 30 November — are scheduled to be announced on Sunday, 3 December.
Currently, the Congress is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, the Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana.
Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan witnessed a tough fight between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress.
The BJP fought the elections in the five states under the party’s collective leadership while banking on ‘Brand Modi’. In Madhya Pradesh, to counter anti-incumbency, the party refused to project Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the CM face. Similarly, in Rajasthan, it did not name former chief minister of Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje as the CM face and went ahead with Modi as the face of the campaign.
Apart from these key players, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also contested the polls in these five states.
Also read: From welfarism in MP & Chhattisgarh to Hindutva in Rajasthan — why BJP has changed its poll strategy
Focus on welfare schemes
In Telangana, the BRS (formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi) has held power since the state’s creation in 2014. Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao won the last two elections riding on his popularity as the leader who secured statehood for Telangana. The BJP won just one seat in the 2018 assembly elections.
This time, the Congress mounted an aggressive campaign with the aim of displacing the incumbent government. The BRS and the Congress’s campaigns in the state prominently featured promises of ‘freebies’ and electoral incentives, with both vowing to implement numerous welfare schemes if voted into power.
The Congress, hoping to wrest power in the state, has made promises such as as providing financial assistance of Rs 2,500 to women, free travel for women on state-run buses, and distributing cooking gas cylinders, among other promises.
Countering the Congress’s promises, the BRS has pledged to provide monthly financial assistance of Rs 3,000 to poor women, and has reduced the cost of cooking gas cylinders to Rs 400, among other things.
In Rajasthan, for the past three decades, the ruling party has changed with each election. In the last election, the Congress fell short of a majority by one seat and went on to form the government with support from smaller parties and Independents.
This time around, the Congress offered subsidised LPG cylinders, free electricity up to 100 units, free health insurance and more, while the BJP countered it by offering Rs 12,000 per year to farmers, and a scooty to each girl after she passes Class 12, among other welfare measures.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP, which had been in power since 2003, fell short of the majority mark in 2018. Its vote share was marginally higher than that of the Congress but the latter managed to get 114 seats — five more than the BJP — and went on to form the government. However, this government led by Kamal Nath fell following Jyotiraditya Scindia’s revolt in 2020, and led to the formation of a BJP government with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as chief minister.
In this election campaign, to woo women voters, the BJP government increased the amount provided under the Ladli Behna scheme from Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,250 every month and has promised to increase it to Rs 3,000 if it retains power. The Congress countered it by promising Rs 1,500 to eligible women every month, apart from subsidised gas cylinders.
In Chhattisgarh, the Congress had dislodged the BJP from power in 2018 and is predicted to retain the state now. If the exit polls’ predictions hold true, it will be the first time since Narendra Modi’s ascension to the national political centre stage that the Congress will retain power in a state.
The Congress campaign in Chhattisgarh centred around welfare schemes introduced over the past five years, and measures such as a hike in the procurement price of paddy from farmers. The BJP has made similar promises and said it would purchase paddy at higher MSP besides a one-time payment of Rs 12,000 under the Krishi Unnati Yojana. Apart from this, it has also promised Rs 12,000 per year to married women if the party is voted to power.
The BJP campaign in the state was also marked by attempts to consolidate Hindu votes by raking up allegations of tribals embracing Christianity under the watch of the Congress. This issue dominated the BJP’s agenda in certain pockets of tribal-dominated Bastar, which the Congress had swept last time.
In Mizoram, the MNF government led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga was pitted against the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) and the Congress as it made an effort to come back to power in the state.
Also read: Ladli Behna scheme has women rallying behind Shivraj, but not all men are happy