Whoever thought of July 4 as the date to hold the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit must be complimented for their sense of humour — of course, it must have been a scheduling issue and decided much in advance in consultation with all the attending states.
But the reason I say that the summit date should bring a smile to the reader is because the SCO is largely seen as a China-led organisation and 4 July is America’s independence day. And as we all know by now, China and the US are not particularly the best of friends these days.
Unfortunately, while the SCO summit will still take place on the Fourth of July, it has been reduced to online commentary or analysis. Both the big boys are likely to show up – Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine is nearing 500 days, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping – as are other heads of states and government from four out of five Central Asian states, that is, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan; dialogue partners Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey.
The three-hour-long meeting, to be presided over by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will take place from 1230-330 pm IST.
So what happened? Why did Modi, who did a full tour of every Central Asian country last year after participating in the SCO summit in Tashkent and significantly upping India’s presence in the region – decide that this summit should be held online? Especially when the excuse of Covid really doesn’t hold any longer?
After all, wouldn’t it have been an opportunity to showcase the “middle path” that Modi has publicly taken since the Russian invasion of Ukraine? That is, increase India’s uptake of Russian oil to such a significant extent that it has now touched nearly 42 per cent of its imports; while, at the same time, significantly improving its ties with the US.
Modi and Putin are believed to have developed an easy familiarity with each other over the years – Modi called Putin on his return from the US, the kind of things friends do when they hang out with other friends and then share notes.
Wouldn’t having a physical SCO summit with Xi Jinping present have been an opportunity, for example, to underline the cold disapproval that Modi is so good at demonstrating – while, at the same time, making it clear that “atithi devo bhava” didn’t allow him to insult his esteemed guest?
Wouldn’t having the four Central Asian leaders standing next to him, side by side, have enhanced Modi and India’s stature? India remains the major market in this part of the world, even if connectivity routes are stuck because of the Afghanistan imbroglio and because India and Pakistan don’t even talk to each other anymore.
But the fact remains that India has been reaching out to the Taliban government in small ways over the past two years – nobody else may like it, but it demonstrates Delhi’s interest in maintaining stability.
Moreover, with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attending, wouldn’t it have been a golden opportunity to talk about the need for “democracy in the DNA of South Asia” as well? Even if External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has made it clear that talks with Pakistan cannot take place because of the terror angle, Modi is truly capable of surprising everyone in the room.
Also read: Why India’s SCO membership still matters as China strengthens its hand in Central Asia
A missed opportunity?
So why didn’t Modi put his foot down and say, I want a physical SCO summit? Even his foreign policy managers and protocol people would have shaken their heads and replied, “The G-20 summit is likely to take place in September, where the world’s most important countries and their leaders are likely to show up, and we have our hands full with that.”
Perhaps that’s why. Even Modi realised that it might be too much to ask for both Putin and Xi to come twice to Delhi within the space of a few months – Putin, especially, is widely acknowledged to be a terrible traveller. Even when he comes for his bilateral summit meetings every other year, he barely stays the night and then pushes off.
Then there is the small problem of India and China not seeing eye to eye on the boundary, whose third anniversary of the face-off has just taken place. With 50,000 Indian and Chinese soldiers at about eyeball level in eastern Ladakh, it may have given rise to some uncomfortable moments with President Xi in town.
On the other hand, PM Modi could have used the chance to deliver some homilies about Democracy over One-Party Dictatorship, especially since these big jamborees are so tightly controlled.
We will now see if both Xi and Putin show up for the G-20. It will be interesting to see the reaction of the Western powers to their presence, especially because the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provoked a new Cold War between the East and the West.
Perhaps the real missed opportunity over not having a physical SCO summit is that the Central Asians won’t show up. Certainly, India’s lack of attention towards Central Asia has cost it severely – the Chinese are expanding rapidly, via Belt and Road, and the Russians aren’t about to give up their own influence in this part of their “near abroad.” But India has refused to put its money on promoting connectivity and pushing trade and investment. There’s only so much that Raj Kapoor and Mithun Chakraborty can do.
Then there’s the small matter of Iran and Belarus becoming full-time members at this SCO summit. Iran, especially, has been having a distinctly uncomfortable relationship with Delhi these past few months – Iran’s foreign minister cancelled a trip to India’s flagship foreign policy conference, the Raisina Dialogue, earlier in February. A physical summit would have surely increased Iran’s presence manifold.
Does all this mean that India is veering off the “middle path” in favour of one pole more than the other? That the real reason the SCO summit went online is because Modi didn’t want anymore to take the tortuous path that requires a fine balancing between various nations?
Still, all the SCO members will listen to each other tomorrow over a dedicated Zoom call – now to see what comes of it.
Jyoti Malhotra is a senior consulting editor at ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)