Barely had the dust settled on the India-Pakistan standoff last week, when US President Donald Trump announced that America would terminate India (and Turkey)’s status as beneficiary countries under its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme.
Certainly, the timing is awful. Even if the GSP decision has long been in the making, and much of it is a decision by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the fact is that Trump’s announcement comes hot on the heels of the Americans brokering a deal with Pakistan to release Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman and return him home to India.
The US led from the front, along with France and Germany, to push for the return of the captured IAF pilot. In exchange, India would de-escalate and not retaliate against the Pakistan Air Force’s actions.
Within 60 hours of his capture, Abhinandan was home. Both India and Pakistan claimed victory – the former, because it had struck Pakistani territory outside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, within kissing distance of Islamabad and Rawalpindi; the latter, because it had achieved an element of surprise by breaching the LoC in broad daylight, shooting down an Indian MiG-21 and capturing an IAF pilot.
Also read: As Trump withdraws GSP status, India puts ‘favourable’ trade package for US on hold
The weekend intervened and the world moved on. PM Narendra Modi returned to domestic politics, challenging anyone to go against the narrative on Pakistan spun by the BJP.
Then, out of the blue Tuesday morning, Trump announced India’s eviction from the GSP list. India tried to moderate the blow, saying it won’t really affect India’s exports. But the fact remains that the political signalling is terrible.
Apart from helping bring back Abhinandan, the US is leading the charge to ban Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar at the UN Security Council. The Chinese have clearly indicated they won’t play ball on that front.
Should New Delhi, at this delicate moment when it needs friends, antagonise one of its closest partners? It boggles the mind why the Modi government would not find a way to soothe Trump’s feelings on allegedly unfair trade and e-commerce decisions that promote domestic Indian companies over foreign ones.
At a time when it should be pulling out the red carpet and arranging roses, the Modi government is chastening an important partner and ally because of domestic Swadeshi Jagran Manch considerations.
The SJM has openly said that domestic industry is being swamped by e-retail American and Chinese giants and that they should be curbed.
Could there be another reason why Modi has not been attentive to Trump, still the most powerful leader in the world?
Speculation that both leaders hardly have a rapport has been rife for some time. The fact that they are alike in so many ways should have helped them get along better. But Trump and Modi seem to be growing farther and farther apart in recent months.
Trump’s fairly simple line of thinking is quite clear. His India decision indicates that he is, above all, interested in money matters. He personally ramped up the confrontation with the Chinese, because he believed Beijing was taking unfair advantage of US’ open trade policies, to the extent that both sides have now agreed that it is important to sit down and talk.
Like the Chinese, Modi definitely believes there is a Modi way of doing things – the recent strikes on Pakistan are proof. But with the Indian economy still so fragile after the upheaval of demonetisation, antagonising a good friend abroad who comes to your aid in a variety of other ways, may not be the best diplomacy.
Because of the US, Modi was able to tell his domestic audiences that he got Wing Commander Abhinandan back in rapid time; no other government, not even Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had been able to do this during Kargil. (At the time, Group Captain Kambampati Nachiketa, who was shot down by the Pakistanis, was returned only after eight days.)
Still, two lessons have emerged from the recent India-Pakistan crisis.
First, the Narendra Modi government will now milk the crisis for all its worth in the coming Lok Sabha elections. All those who ask legitimate questions of the government will be deemed anti-national. Union minister Piyush Goyal’s recent tirade against an India Today journalist is an example. It was even more surprising because the TV channel has been largely supportive of the government’s security and foreign policies.
The message to the media in the run up to the polls is clear: Either you are with us, or against us.
Also read:Is India’s protectionism reason enough for Donald Trump’s GSP move or is US being a bully?
Second, the international community is so consumed with its own troubles that it has little patience for two poor nations with their fingers on the nuclear button. It largely agrees with PM Modi’s argument that Pakistan is a recalcitrant state and uses both nuclear weapons as well as terrorism in the most toxic of ways to achieve its goals. It will largely leave Modi to deal how he likes with Pakistan.
But it will not hesitate to intervene if things reach a flashpoint.
Now that the crisis is over, the US has returned to talks with the Taliban, the British are back to being consumed by their impending departure from the European Union, the National People’s Congress in Beijing is on course and the OIC has carved out a middle path by asking India and Pakistan to settle Kashmir.
Notice, though, South African comedian Trevor Noah’s recent comments that war between the two neighbours would be “most entertaining”, as he moved his torso to Bollywood music on his show.
Although Noah has since apologised for his remarks, his comments are an indication of the belief that India-Pakistan leaders are still so childish they don’t understand adult, big-picture concerns about war.
One thing is for sure. After last week’s strikes, the detested hyphenation that India took such pains and so many years to get rid of, with its western neighbour, is back.
Close to 300 days have been invested in global diplomacy, summits abroad and at home. Very little to show for it.