New Delhi: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) took a drubbing in its backyard as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) walked away with all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.
The city-state witnessed a three-pronged battle between the BJP, the ruling AAP and the Congress, after the latter two failed to cobble together an alliance despite a concerted effort in the run-up to the elections.
The triangular contest appears to have benefitted the BJP the most. Not only has the party bagged all seven seats, its vote-share in the national capital has touched 56.6 per cent, far more than the 46.4 per cent it managed in 2014.
For the Congress, there was some redemption in defeat — the party finished second in five seats and its vote-share improved from 15.1 per cent in 2014 to 22.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the AAP’s vote-share dropped to 18.1 per cent from 32.9 per cent in 2014. In Chandni Chowk, New Delhi and North-East Delhi, the party’s candidates lost their deposits — which happens if a candidate gets less than one-sixth of the valid votes polled.
‘An imminent crisis’
AAP had run a high-profile campaign, with film personalities such as composer Vishal Dadlani and actors Swara Bhasker, Gul Panag and Prakash Raj throwing their weight behind its seven candidates.
The party had fielded Atishi from East Delhi, Raghav Chadha from South Delhi, Pankaj Gupta from Chandni Chowk, Dilip Pandey from North-East Delhi, Guggan Singh Ranga from North-West Delhi, Balbir Singh Jakhar from West Delhi and Brijesh Goyal from New Delhi.
Only Chadha and Ranga finished second, by 3.67 lakh and 5.53 lakh votes respectively.
“The shock of coming third should send AAP to the ICU for the surgical removal of the lump of arrogance that has become the norm for it. Recovering lost ground is going to be difficult; the assembly elections will be its last chance,” a former AAP leader, on the condition of anonymity, told ThePrint.
Sanjay Kumar, director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, said AAP was heading for an imminent crisis.
“It’s not just that it hasn’t managed to win a single seat — that happened in 2014 as well. The problem is that it has stood third on five of the seven seats, with a vote share below 20 per cent,” Kumar pointed out.
“AAP and Congress share a vote base — Muslims and marginalised sections of society. The resurgence of the Congress will make things very difficult for AAP when it comes to the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2020,” said a political analyst who did not wish to be named.
Another political analyst said the AAP’s localised campaign also backfired on the party.
“AAP had no national narrative, why would the capital vote for it?” this analyst said. “Moreover, a resurgent Congress eating into its vote share only helped the BJP.”
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Tough Vidhan Sabha battle ahead
AAP convener and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal now has to gear up for a tough battle for the Delhi assembly elections next year.
In the last two Vidhan Sabha elections, in 2013 and 2015, the AAP polled 29.49 per cent and 54.3 per cent votes respectively, with the latter giving it an unprecedented majority of 67 seats out of 70.
But since then, it has been all downhill for the AAP, with many senior leaders being expelled, and Kejriwal repeatedly accused of being authoritarian and not listening to anyone.
The decline had begun in the 2017 Delhi municipal elections, when AAP’s vote-share fell to 26.23 per cent, even as the Congress’ vote share had risen to 21.09 per cent.
“If there was no assembly election due next year, AAP would still have had time to regroup. Moreover, if it got the second position, it would have at least emerged as the main competition to the BJP in Delhi. But the Congress crossing it only signals an increased erosion of its vote share,” said CSDS’ Kumar.
“I see AAP falling to the third position in the assembly, but we will have to wait and see. The disillusionment with the politics of hope it presented in 2013 will only cause its vote share — which it has in common with the Congress — to shift back to the Congress.”
The first political analyst quoted above added: “The question was never whether the AAP would win any seats. It was always if it would come second or third. Third means a very tough assembly election for AAP, since the upper-class and middle-class vote it had consolidated has moved away from it.”
Just before the Lok Sabha results, Kejriwal had claimed that Muslims had ditched the AAP in favour of the Congress, but the former party leader said even the middle class had switched allegiance.
“The middle class, which used to vote for the Congress or BJP earlier, shifted to the AAP in 2015 because of anti-incumbency and the anti-corruption campaign it ran,” he said.
“AAP’s politics, the politics of the common man, will always have relevance. But morphing into a party driven by personality politics has alienated the public from it.”
Also read: This is what changed for voters from 2014 to 2019 Lok Sabha elections: Nothing
MLAs may jump ship
According to the former leader, it is likely that a number of legislators will jump ship from the AAP as the assembly elections draw nearer — some because of the party’s downward spiral, others because they are not likely to get a ticket again. This will further compound the problem, he said, since the AAP has no “fresh blood”.
But according to the first analyst, while the result will make things difficult for the party, it doesn’t spell doom since Kejriwal is a fighter and will not give up. “It’s likely that AAP will come second in the assembly elections,” he said.
‘People will vote for Kejriwal’
AAP’s Delhi chief Gopal Rai said at a press conference Friday that the party had given its “best shot”.
“The workers from AAP worked selflessly for the campaign. Despite all this, the people’s mandate from across the country and Delhi has been for PM Modi. We respect this,” he said.
“We have had discussions with the candidates and obtained feedback from various teams. One common thread that has emerged is that AAP was not able to convince the people of Delhi to vote for it in the national election. People voted to make Modi the PM, and the anti-Modi vote went to Rahul Gandhi.
“(But) our feedback also reveals that even these people will vote for Kejriwal in Delhi. The people of Delhi have shown sympathy for the work Kejriwal has done for the national capital,” Rai said.
“We have decided to work harder for the people of Delhi — in the fields of education, health, water, and installing CCTV cameras. The AAP government will hasten the pace of its work in the capital. From all four corners of Delhi, our feedback reveals that the people of Delhi will collectively vote for Kejriwal.”
Bjp, s It cell at work
AAP is a party created by media to satisfy the ego of just one person, Arvind Kejriwal. Its demise will not be mourned.
Only one person is responsible for this rout and ultimate demise of AAP- Kejriwal. His ego and selfishness is killing the party. Why he ran a statehood campiagn for Delhi when he knew it’s not possible , just to keep focus on his CM chair..what a moron he is..he killed the idea of AAP
The poor have self respect. They work and earn, feed themselves and are Patriots. They don’t want breadcrumbs thrown by Kejriwal. May the tribe thrive and shine
AAP and AK are good for nothing. Being an activist is much easier; being a doer is a different thing altogether. Our politicians need to understand this. And the arm chair critics and media, too.