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Modi-Shah might have lost today, but the BJP is not going to mourn for long

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Complacency and hubris are a lethal mix at the hustings, and with Wednesday’s verdict, BJP has learnt that the hard way.

New Delhi: Wednesday’s bypoll results in Uttar Pradesh have come as a rude shock for the ruling BJP, which was more than confident of winning at least Gorakhpur, its stronghold and chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s home turf.

But the BJP is unlikely to mourn it for long because the Modi-Shah combine is capable of quickly plugging the holes and building a new road that could lead the party to victory in next elections.

The erratic graph

This is a “shocking verdict”, BJP sources say referring to the bypoll results, clearly indicating how rattled the party is.

The bypoll results, coming just two weeks after BJP’s extraordinary victory in Tripura, are a lesson for the party that there is no place for complacency in politics. The BJP, however, is no stranger to this low-high graph pattern. After it won the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 with more than a decisive mandate, it was defeated in an audacious fashion by the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, an election where maximum voters are urban — BJP’s core vote bank.

Next came Bihar, where the mahagathbandhan (grand alliance of opposition parties) clearly outmanoeuvred the party. Down after these losses, its victory in Assam and the inroads into the northeast came as a shot in its arms. The stunning 2017 vote in its favour in the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls were followed by a not-so handsome win in the home-ground Gujarat by the end of 2017.

In February this year, Congress swept bypolls in BJP-ruled Rajasthan, wresting Ajmer and Alwar Lok Sabha seats from it. The sourness of this loss was offset by the party’s brilliant win in Tripura, where it comprehensively ousted the Left from its decades-old bastion.

Wednesday’s embarrassing defeat has further added to the BJP’s erratic electoral graph. The impact of this, however, will be far greater given it leads to next year’s Lok Sabha polls where UP with its 80 seats is the most important state. The results also help boost the opposition’s morale while dampening that of the BJP’s cadre.

What caused BJP’s defeat

It is evident the BJP could not stand up to double anti-incumbency of being in power both at the Centre and in the state. This is as much a referendum on the Modi-led central government as it is on Yogi Adityanath’s government in the state. Clearly, the party’s core voters stand disillusioned and several didn’t even care to go out to vote for it. It shows Modi’s ability to overcome incumbency each time may be diminishing and that his policies are losing resonance.

For the state government, it tells the party that the one year in governance is not matching expectations. A year is often too early for anti-incumbency to set in and the fact that it already should greatly worry both Adityanath and the party’s central leadership.

It has also exposed the vulnerabilities of the social coalition BJP had forged, the umbrella alliance that gave it the edge. While its new bases like Dalits, and non-Yadav OBCs seem to be moving away, its own core voter is demotivated. Unable to retain either new or old base, the BJP would do well to remember no voter social coalition is permanent or forever loyal.

The bypoll results are also a reflection of what a united opposition can perhaps pull off, the damage it can cause to the BJP. It shows that while the Amit Shah-Modi combine is formidable, it is by no stretch of imagination invincible.

Perhaps, in its quest to conquer newer territories, the BJP election machinery lost sight of the importance of holding its existing bases together. Complacency and hubris are a lethal mix at the hustings, and with today’s verdict, BJP has learnt that the hard way.

The road ahead

The year 2018 is unlikely to be a dream year for the BJP. In Karnataka, BJP’s two key cards — Narendra Modi and the anti-corruption plank — may not work as systematically. The former, given he may not be as popular in the southern state and the latter, because with former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa as its face, who was embroiled in corruption cases, it can hardly sell the anti-corruption narrative.

In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, like in Gujarat, the party will have to fight double anti-incumbency. The huge swing against it in Rajasthan in the bypolls, the poor image of the Vasundhara Raje government and her own rising unpopularity, weigh the BJP down. Anti-incumbency of multiple terms against Shivraj Singh Chouhan, farmer distress and allegations of scams in Madhya Pradesh aren’t going to be its best friends in the polls.

The party has so far banked heavily on Modi’s own popularity and appeal among a cross-section of voters but that is not a sure-shot way to win elections. Neither is Shah’s clever electoral strategising. The BJP has to deliver on governance, both at the Centre and in states, and with Lok Sabha elections just a year away, it has to quickly find a way to convince the voters and give them enough reasons, beyond just Modi, to bring it back to power.

However, make no mistake; the BJP, under the Modi-Shah combine, is a different political creature. This is not a party to sit back and mourn for long, or allow the over-confidence it showed in these bypolls to continue. Introspection would have started, lessons learnt and strategies formulated to address such gaps. This isn’t a party to allow losses to weigh it down. It will look to move on, think ahead and strike back. The opposition must gear up to fight this wounded creature.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. It is indeed ironical that the so deemed all powerful bjp is loosing its clout and standing in the states that they are in power!!!!!!!!!
    It is vividly clear that the people of the states who are ruled by the bjp and have tasted their rule have found the taste bitter and sour. Now they want to spit out the bitter and sour taste….
    Clearly their biased, hyped and odious blend of spicy hinduvita which tasted good in the beginning has been found by the people to be a vile daily dosage of stale food which does not digest at all….

  2. That’s the cost of complacency.Do not take anything for granted.Now BJP can expect all opposion parties and even some present allies coming together for the 2019 Loksabha elections.BJP should be able to identify it’s real friends.Start hectic work from now onwards

  3. That’s the cost of complacency.Do not take anything for granted.Now BJP can expect all opposion parties and even some present allies coming together for the 2019 Loksabha elections.BJP should be able to identify it’s real friends.Start hectic from now onwards

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