No matter which party ultimately forms the government, few would doubt the unmistakable Modi imprint on the Karnataka elections.
The Karnataka poll outcome Tuesday left two contrasting imageries: Narendra Modi rolling like a juggernaut and crushing anyone in the way, and Rahul Gandhi looking like the mythical Greek king Sisyphus, who was condemned to eternally roll a heavy boulder (read Congress) up the hill only to see it tumbling down when it reaches near the top.
No matter which party ultimately forms the government — with the Congress and the JD(S) joining hands to try to keep the BJP, the single largest party, out of power — few would doubt the unmistakable Modi imprint on the Karnataka elections.
So, what lies ahead? BJP president Amit Shah remains insatiable. Karnataka is his “gateway to the south”. Having virtually achieved the original goal of a Congress-mukt Bharat — leaving it with only Punjab, Mizoram and Puducherry — Shah has set his eyes on states ruled by regional parties, primarily in the south and the east.
The Karnataka poll results are, therefore, likely to trigger fresh efforts by regional chieftains and a desperate Congress leadership to cobble together a grand alliance against the BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The inherent contradictions in an alliance driven by ambitious leaders with conflicting interests are likely to keep psephologists busy in the coming months.
The Karnataka results have revalidated the potency of ‘Brand Modi’. The last two elections — in Gujarat, where his economic policies were put under trial by the opposition, and in Karnataka, where a satrap, Siddaramaiah, sought to turn the tables on the BJP by taking a leaf out of Modi’s book from his chief ministerial days — were tough. But the Prime Minister pulled them off, despite the indifferent image of the party’s chief ministerial candidates.
Governance at the Centre is likely to get a fresh impetus in the coming months. On the eve of the Karnataka poll results, Modi appeared to have taken a fresh guard to prepare for a longer innings as he gave Piyush Goyal the additional charge of finance (as Arun Jaitley recuperates from a surgery) and shunted controversy-prone Smriti Irani out of the information and broadcasting ministry.
The BJP may have reached the peak of its expanse and prowess, but the higher you climb the mountain, the harder the wind blows. This saying may give hope to opposition parties, but Modi has different ideas. At a meeting of BJP MPs in April, Modi quoted one of his predecessors: “Chandra Shekharji once said, ‘Once you are on top of Mount Everest, you can only come down.’ I don’t agree with him. We are here to stay and stay for long.”
For now, all eyes are on the Prime Minister, to see if he decides to ride his continuing popularity and get a renewed mandate by advancing the Lok Sabha polls to November. It could serve the twin purpose of beating the strong anti-incumbency faced by BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
These states account for 65 Lok Sabha seats. If the Congress were to turn the tables on the BJP in these states, political observers believe it could create a momentum for the opposition parties ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Such beliefs persist despite BJP president Amit Shah ruling out the possibility.
A snap poll looks unlikely — not because it could backfire, as had happened with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2004, but because Modi seems too confident of his popularity and of the opposition’s vulnerability.