New Delhi/Patna: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to make another visit to Bihar this weekend to address three more rallies for a final push to boost the National Democratic Alliance’s chances of making a clean sweep in the Lok Sabha polls. In 2019, the NDA had won 39 of the 40 seats in the eastern state.
According to a senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader, the central leadership received inputs that the sitting MPs in Bihar were facing anti-incumbency, besides the caste-politics narrative and the spirited campaign by the opposition, and that the prime minister had taken upon himself the responsibility to tackle them.
“After the election announcement, PM Modi had started Mission 2024 from Jamui, and since then, he has held a number of rallies and is now going to address three more on 25 May,” the leader said.
Modi is expected to campaign at Pataliputra, Buxar and Karakat, which vote in the last phase on 1 June, which will take the total number of rallies addressed by him in Bihar to 15, apart from his roadshow in Patna during his 12 May visit.
Besides Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also reached Patna Thursday to take stock of the situation as it was the last day of campaigning for the sixth phase. According to sources, the BJP has planned a “blitzkrieg” by its star campaigners in the final phase.
Explaining the significance of the PM’s campaign strategy for Bihar, a senior party functionary said, “So far, the PM has addressed 12 rallies, and will address three more on 25 May. He also held a road show in Patna, a first for a PM. It is also for the first time that a prime minister stayed overnight in Bihar twice within a week. This shows how serious the party and the PM are about Bihar. But, it also shows that the situation is not too great.”
Former MLC Prem Kumar Mani said, “Both BJP and Janata Dal (United) realise that the vote base they have is because of the PM and not due to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.”
“When PM Modi addresses an election rally, he galvanises voters in NDA’s favour — particularly those from upper castes. That every NDA candidate wants Modi to address a meeting in his/her constituency is understandable,” he added.
Many within the BJP feel that Nitish seems to be sluggish in his election campaign this time, which is also impacting the NDA’s chances.
“He also fell ill in the middle. If we compare his rallies with those in 2019, he has certainly done fewer. In the opposition camp, Tejashwi Yadav has taken charge and has done over 200 rallies, so far. The PM has now taken the lead to counter Tejashwi and Lalu,” said another leader, highlighting that Modi visited Bihar a second time within a week.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA had an advantage of over 22 percent of the votes cast over the then Mahagathbandhan — 54 percent versus 32 percent. In 2024, the NDA is in the fray with new members — former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha, who were with the Mahagathbandhan the last time.
“The NDA should not have had any problem in repeating its feat of getting 39 seats. Yet, after each phase of polling, the alliance appears to be struggling. This has been conveyed to the state unit, and since then, efforts have been made to galvanise the cadre, and ensure that the focus remains on PM Modi,” a senior BJP leader said.
According to another senior leader, with the BJP dependent largely on the ‘Modi factor’ in Bihar, the party wants to keep the spotlight on him and the work done by the Centre.
On 21 May, Modi became the first BJP prime minister to visit the state party office in Patna.
“He asked how things are in Bihar. All of us were tense, and he joked that he could not see our teeth because we were not smiling,” recalled a leader, who was present there.
The leader further explained the problem that the NDA is facing in these elections. “We have an immensely popular prime minister, along with unpopular candidates facing major anti-incumbency challenges after representing their seats for a decade. Of the 40 NDA candidates, merely a handful, including Union Minister R.K. Singh, are not as such impacted,” he said.
The caste card
Another BJP functionary blamed the “poor” candidate selection for the situation that the party is in. “The selection of candidates, particularly by BJP and JD(U) was lacklustre. Barely a few candidates were replaced owing to the caste composition. For instance, BJP MP Rama Devi, who belongs to the Vaishya community, was dropped in Sheohar, and it was given to JD(U), who fielded Lovely Anand, a Rajput, and wife of Anand Mohan Singh,” he said.
“Similarly, in adjoining Sitamarhi, sitting MP Sunil Kumar Pintu was dropped by the JD(U), and the ticket was given to Devesh Kumar Thakur. The result was that this angered the Vaishya community, which has a substantial population in Sheohar, Sitamarhi, West Champaran and East Champaran,” he added.
As far as the caste factor is concerned, the BJP leader said that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) played its cards much better.
“It gave seven seats to Kushwahas, who make up the core supporters of JD(U). There are reports of NDA voters from the Kushwaha community voting for RJD candidates in Nawada and Aurangabad, making it difficult to predict the poll results.”
The leader explained, “The breakup started from Munger, when the RJD fielded Asha Devi — wife of gangster Ashok Mahto. Mahto belongs to the Dhanuk caste, which is close to Kurmis and had drifted towards the BJP in recent years. Asha Devi was pitted against JD(U) leader Lallan Singh. The seat, which should have been a cakewalk for the NDA, turned into a caste-driven contest.”
Even the seats like Darbhanga and Madhubani, where the BJP won by huge margins, are seeing it struggle. In 2019, BJP MP Ashok Yadav won by a margin of over 4.5 lakh votes. After polling this time, even BJP leaders admit that the margin may fall.
“This time, the Yadav votes went to the RJD. The community feels that it must support Tejashwi to ensure that he is not demoralised in the assembly polls,” a BJP MLA from the region told ThePrint, stressing that there was an erosion in even the Mallah (fishermen) voter base because of Mukesh Sahni’s allegiance to the INDIA bloc.
What’s working for NDA in Bihar
In Saran, there is the sentiment of anti-incumbency against MP Rajiv Pratap Rudy. Voters claim that he seldom meets the people.
“But I will still vote for him because we want Narendra Modi to be the PM again. If Rudy wins, it will be because of Modi,” said Mithilesh Singh, who runs a shop at Sohna chowk in Saran, and is a Kurmi by caste.
“We receive 5 kgs of rice due to Modi ji. Who else will we vote for?” said Sohan Sahu, who runs a tea stall in Goriakothi, one of the blocks of Maharajganj, where BJP’s Janardan Singh Sigriwal is the sitting MP. Sigriwal, he said, has done nothing for Maharajganj for the last 10 years.
In Jehanabad town, Jevan Kushwaha remarked that even if he asked his wife to vote for the RJD, she would not listen. “During Modi ji’s tenure, we have got a toilet, a cooking gas and 5 kg of rice each month.”
A huge number of these scheme beneficiaries, largely belonging to the Economically Backward Classes and Dalits, who still swear by Modi. There aren’t many who talk about Nitish Kumar — the man who has been the chief minister of Bihar for the last 18 years.
(Edited by Mannat Chugh)
Also Read: Strongman Suryadeo Singh’s legacy to BJP’s Dhullu Mahto, Dhanbad politics remains in grip of crime