Why it’s difficult for BJP to come to power in Delhi

It’s easy to see why Congress isn't even in the race in Delhi election. But to understand BJP’s position, one needs to go back a little – when Delhi was still old.

A workers carries cut-outs of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah at Ramlila Maidan in New Delhi | PTI

For a political party to form a government in the 70-member Delhi assembly, it needs the magic figure of 36 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party, with 67 legislators, is in a comfortable position. Even if Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s party manages to lose 50 per cent of the seats, it would still remain very close to the halfway mark.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, with just three seats in the assembly, must necessarily get all the seats that the AAP would lose in a hypothetical scenario, in order to be able to form the next government in Delhi. The situation is worse for the Congress, which didn’t win a single seat in the 2015 election.

It is a tall order for the BJP and the Congress to match the AAP’s 2015 performance level. Ironically, in the changed situation, the AAP itself is struggling to match its own previous performance. While the Congress’ decline and the AAP’s predicament are understandable, one would need to go back a little in history, to the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) days, to understand the reasons for the BJP being in such a tight spot.

Non-existent old base

There was a time when the city was still confined to the limits of Old Delhi settlements, inhabited mainly by the refugees of the tragic Partition. The Bharatiya Jana Sangh famously claimed total control over the city ruled by the Metropolitan Council, which was then considered the citadel of power, at times more important than the Raisina Hill housing the Parliament and other centuries-old buildings. Members of this Council later went on to occupy positions of power in both Houses of Parliament.

With the emergence of New Delhi, the voter base widened far beyond the refugee settlements and business areas of Old Delhi to include the sprawling colonies and high-rise buildings. Then came the newer areas of Noida and Gurugram that became the nerve centre of business and attracted a much larger population commuting between the affordable Delhi and the developed National Capital Region (NCR). Thus, not only the area of operation but the voter base of Delhi also underwent a metamorphosis.

New voter base

Not surprisingly then, the voter base of Delhi changed over the years. The percentage of traditional voters who would prefer a BJP or a Congress government appears to have dwindled far below the level that could help either party to win an election. The BJP and the Congress could hold on to power alternatively on the strength of their dedicated voter base and popular leaders like Madan Lal Khurana and Sheila Dikshit.

This transformation in the voter base could pose a serious challenge to the BJP. Except for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP has no serious star campaigner – and it was visible in the Delhi election campaign. Moreover, this is the first election that the party is facing without senior leaders like Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, who knew the city and its voters well. Although, the AAP too is suffering from a major credibility crisis and anti-incumbency factor.

With a major shift in Delhi’s voter base and with the city’s representative population tilting towards migrants from nearby states, the BJP had to go for figures popular in other states – Manoj Tiwari in Bihar and Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh – instead of someone who represented the generations that built Delhi brick by brick, or rather colony by colony.

Even these gated colonies developed a new pressure group called the Resident Welfare Association (RWA), which was more concerned, and naturally so, about the ‘bijli-paani-sadak’ issues.  And who has better tapped into this section than Arvind Kejriwal?

Absent ally

In the past, the BJP would ‘manage’ to form governments in states even if it didn’t have the required numbers because it had the magician, Amit Shah, perform the tricks for it. But with Shah now in another role and no longer heading the BJP – even though his writ in the organisation runs large – it is doubtful if the BJP would be in a position to cobble up a majority in the event of a hung assembly.

The BJP is contesting without allies that could garner popular votes, win a significant number of seats and come to its aid in such an event. Even long-time associate Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is not with the BJP this time. This could also reduce the percentage of votes polled by the BJP in traditional Akali stronghold areas.

What added to its woes was the Congress’ virtual absence from the battlefield. The party seemed to have given up all hopes and so decided to not even put up a symbolic fight. The BJP would be the happiest if the Congress is able to retain its vote share from the 2015 election.

What’s the hope?

The lack of enthusiasm of Delhi’s voters is a sign that the capital metropolis has lost much of its interest in the polling process. The controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has added a new dimension to the existing debate over vote bank politics. The Shaheen Bagh sit-in has consolidated the voters of a section of society but it may have also polarised other voters.

Delhi has serious problems like pollution, connectivity, and housing besides having to feed and provide a decent living to millions, many of whom are unemployed. Law and order is another problem threatening to damage the image of not only Delhi but that of India as well. In such circumstances, there’s always the surprise factor that could turn up to make a mark. Will it be so on 11 February? Whatever the result, we must hope that the winning party or the combination will be more serious about governance.

The author is a member of the National Executive Committee of the BJP and former editor of Organiser. Views are personal.