What many commentators seem to have overlooked is the fact that constructing national majorities is no longer just an arithmetical formula consisting of seat-by-seat verdicts.
A year is left for the next Lok Sabha elections, but speculations about the results have already begun. A consensus of sorts has emerged among many commentators that the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is on the downhill, and even if the party emerges as the frontrunner, it is unlikely to be anywhere near its 2014 performance.
Four possible scenarios are being listed by these commentators: a BJP-led government without Modi as the prime minister; a Congress-led government supported by other parties; a Third Front government; or perhaps a hung House necessitating fresh elections.
There are good reasons why such speculations have gained momentum in the past few weeks. The BJP was pushed to a corner in the high-pitched battle in Gujarat and suffered a massive defeat in the Rajasthan bypolls. The government’s performance on the economic front has been rather modest, and politically it has not dealt well with social tensions in many parts of the country. Furthermore, the opposition along with the newly appointed Congress president, Rahul Gandhi, has been consistently strident in attacking the BJP government.
Would this be enough to dislodge Modi and BJP?
In our view, the evidence available at the moment is not strong enough to rule out Modi’s return to power. The time-series data collected by Lokniti-CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) indicates that there hasn’t been any major change in the popularity of the BJP and Modi vis-à-vis 2014.
In the latest round of the CSDS survey conducted in January 2018, more than one-third of the respondents (34 per cent) stated that they would vote for the BJP if Lok Sabha elections are held immediately. It is true that surveys often tend to overestimate the popularity of the ruling party, but even after discounting for that, there seems to be no major change in electoral support for the BJP. Furthermore, the preference for Modi as the prime minister also remains strong at the moment.
There is indeed a decline in the popularity of the BJP and Modi in comparison to the last survey held in April 2017 (See figure 1 and 2). However, to consider this as a signal for BJP going downhill is statistically presumptuous.
Figure 1: Voting intent in recent surveys
Figure 2: Prime ministerial preferences
Note: Preference for Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have been added to Rahul Gandhi’s figures.
The 2017 survey was conducted right after the BJP’s historic victory in Uttar Pradesh and a decline in support as compared to a high point must be interpreted with caution. To be able to say anything meaningful about the 2019 scenarios mentioned above, one needs two more, or at least one more data point, to confirm a declining trend. As of now, the available evidence suggests that there is no change with respect to the 2014 baseline.
Electoral contests are largely about who controls the narrative during the campaign period. The BJP is clearly on the defensive at the moment, but whether the opposition would continue to have a home run for next twelve months is an open question. This control over the narrative may change hands many times before the real campaign for 2019 begins. It is very much expected that the BJP would do well in this round of elections in the North-East.
The Congress, on the other hand, seems to have given up on Nagaland and Tripura. Even in Meghalaya, it is not entirely sure of returning to power.
It is no surprise then that the Congress has already shifted its focus to Karnataka where the party seems to have an edge. The BJP may not start as the favourite, but it is too early to rule them out of the contest.
The Janata Dal (Secular) led by Deve Gowda is fighting a battle for survival and is making all efforts for building a pre-poll front (that includes BSP and NCP at the moment) with eyes on Vokkaliga and Muslim votes. If the JD(S) succeeds in its effort, the Congress would have a hard time coming back to power in the state.
Thus, all such scenario-building before the Karnataka results is an exercise in futility. These speculations seem to be driven by an old-style arithmetic of constructing national majorities – how many seats the party can win in each state.
Given that the BJP virtually swept Hindi-speaking states, winning 190 of 225 seats, analysts are counting the number of seats the party may lose in each state and thus arriving at a scenario in which Modi may no longer become the PM.
What many commentators seem to have overlooked is that with 2014, not only the nature of election campaigning but also the mechanics of constructing national majorities got transformed.
It is no longer just an arithmetical formula consisting of seat-by-seat verdicts. The campaign has become centralised and contests plebiscitary in nature. We have already seen how Modi turned the rising tide against the BJP in the last two weeks of campaigning. With Modi leading the BJP into 2019, and more than a year to go, all bets are off.
The authors are PhD students in political science at the University of California at Berkeley, US.
i happened to read this article of feb 2018 on 3 july 2018, about 125 days later1 and as i read, i got curious about the back ground of these gentlemen who wrote this peice, and clicked on their names! i found they apparently wrote many articles in the print during this period. i could not inside1 but the head lines appear to give away their game1 these gentlemen do not appear impartial analysts or observers or didinterested political pundits!
their knowlegeable bias appears to be to present a distorted picture knowingly.
their writings appear to be good material for a comparitive study post 2019 or early polls in late 2018. i would be interested to study what and how they wrote before 2010, if they were on writing scene! and i would like to read their articles in 2021, if Modi is still there as pm and if modi is not there as pm.
i request others to study these gentle men and other gentlemen and ladies writing in different media publications with this past present future basis and determine those of scholarship and those of payroll business!
god forbid, some good journalism appears to be gaining momentum in india because of the inability of neo-fascist governments to control the online media!
Gujarat election was a wake up call for BJP. They took it seriously and North East was painted in Saffron. They kicked out the commies from Tripura with a majority of their own. That shows that they have taken the wake up call very seriously.
Now, their next destination is Karnataka. It is their weak point, because all BJP leaders of Karnataka are proved to be useless on their own. But here too BJP has an open ground to go all out and grab a majority. They have already started attacking where it hurts the congress, South Karnataka. Its for this reason sleeping siddha a.k.a nidderamaiah went ahead and announced the lingayat religious status. If congress loses in south karnataka and old Mysore areas, they are dead entity in karnataka politics. Precisely that is what will happen in May 2019. Now congress has two enemies in old mysore areas with the entry of BJP there, the other is their part time partner JD(S).
Rajasthan is definitely the weakest spot of BJP. Entirely because of Vasundhara. Party should have dumped her 3 years back. MP and Chatisgarh will have a strong competition coming from Congress. But its not sure if the same is to be seen in Lok Sabha election. There is a possibility BJP will have a reduced number in assembly or a change in one of the state. But electorate will favour BJP for a strong center.
Andhra and Telangana are two states where BJP will go alone and that might give them few surprise wins. if that happens, the game of southern regional parties will be over and that is good news for BJP and BJP alone. Possibility of this happening is very high.
Karnataka will be the trend setter because whoever wins this time, will have the upper hand and psychological advantage in the assembly elections coming towards end of 2018. If BJP wins Karnataka with a clear majority, they could turn around in Rajasthan easily and win it for a second term. This could be a possibility worth pondering over. Because Modi and Shah are in charge and they take it seriously and plunge into it whole heartedly. That is BJP’s biggest advantage.
Popularities fluctuate wildly during the last year of ruling. BJP has taken bold decisions, people have seen it and rewarded them for it. So my gut feeling says BJP has the psychological advantage and rest of the opposition is not even geared up to challenge them. It will be good if BJP can go solo and tell the electorate to give them a clear mandate, which they will do. They can justify by quoting the unreasonable and silly demands of the allies. That will tame and silence the potential post poll allies who are only eager to pick any crumbs thrown to them without any grumbling. Many of the NDA allies (except the one’s from North East) need a sound thrashing. BJP will be better off without them.
The authors conclusions are incorrect. BJP won massively in 2014 due to a unique set of circumstances of Congress’s creation 1. The economy was in bad shape 2. Perception of lack of governance 3. Graft issue 4. No leadership in congress (Sonia was sick and out of action) 5. Congress largely fought on its own even in places it could have had an alliance 6. Congress seemed to have given up and too tired to fight. For the BJP 1. there was a fresh face in Modi who managed to sell the “Gujarat model” 2. He promised the sky to the people if he was voted to power, 90% of which was impossible to deliver 3. Modi seems to have raised an enormous amount of money, which Congress or other parties were unable to match (for example in Kerala, where BJP had no prospects of winning a seat, the BJP outspent the LDF and UDF by a factor of 3x indicating the unlimited ill-gotten wealth it had amassed. WHAT HAS CHANGED 1. Modi has not been able to deliver 2. His alliance partners are deserting him while there is more desire among the opposition to defeat BJP 4. Congress seems to be in a mood to fight 5. Congress is raising serious draft allegations against the Govt, some of which is beginning to stick while the UPA members are being exonerated of the graft allegations by the Courts one by one, but most importantly 6. People are hurting more than in 2014. Only hype by the Govt keeps their hopes alive, but this is likely to fade in 1 year.
Also I think Modi’s worst enemy is Modi himself. By projecting an autocratic face and an attitude of not even giving an impression of caring the views of alliance partners, Modi will find it very hard to form alliances in 2019. It will have to fight on its own. Even if it manages to repeat the performance of 2014 and get 31% vote share, it will still be defeated. The large number of ex-Congress politicians in the North who are returning to Congress is an indication of how these people are perceiving the change in wind. Back in 2013/14 MPs, MLAs and other politicians were leaving Congress by the hoards — it was a tsunami. You don’t see that this time and indeed there a reversal now. GST is hurting common man (prices of everything has gone up when it shouldn’t) and the demonitization has destroyed the economy which may takes years’ to recover.
If you are targetting 300 plus out of 545, why do you need these allies who make unconstitutional demands. BJP is better off without them. Modi and BJP must fight 2019 for a clear majority. IF any allies are accepted, it must be on condition that they will get nothing, but will have to contribute more than 100%.
Ex-congress men returning to their old party is not an indication of congress is on the upswing. its because they are comfortable only amongst their own kind, i.e., Congress. It is a deceptive reversal and all of us will be fooled by this.
GST and Demonetisation is still being blamed for all the ills in economy is an excuse. I have seen many doing roaring business after GST. They say things are easier for them now. IF you entered into a business at the wrong cycle, then you are bound to suffer. that is the reality. Blaming Modi for everything is a fashion now. Economy is already recovering world over and India is bound to recover. Economic recovery always comes with a time lag. IF economy is destroyed, show me company that has lost 50% of its sales growth and is on the verge of closure.? There will not be even one. After initial setbacks, most of them are doing well. Everything happens with a time lag and that is what is happening in India. Yes, I accept the fact that India is over valued and it corrected itself for a while. Now it has a new base to start from, and the next move is into a higher trajectory.
if Rahul Gandhi is leading for PM post that means Indian voter is sick of honesty and wants corruption.. which is now in root of routine life of survival. Public need money only by hook or crook (that also with ease)
During Advani ‘s days the entire forces under the command of Sangh parivar comes around 186 MPs. In 2014 there was a strong Modiji wave and there was a quantum jump of nearly another 100 MPs thereby getting nearly 280 MPs. In the present scenario the organisation is not able to maintain the Modi wave intact. New faces having little experience in political party organisation is a handicap for BJP, and a new trend is coming in the organisation where everything is highly dependant on Modiji. In parliamentary election covering entire nation with Modiji alone is difficult to imagine.InNE the organisers in BJP assumed that there are no hard core activists in this region and start building up the party by recruiting from congressman to whom the old cadres fought more than thirty long years. Thus in NE it is a great experiment and testing ground for BJP whether the old guards will come out as usual or not or will they oppose the official candidate. This situation is created by the organisers in charge of NE in an attempt to irradicate Congress. Only time will tell us whether these persons having Congress DNA will transform to true nationalist as desired by the party or facing a disaster for BJP in NE in future. Moreover taking sound financial background as major criteria in selecting key position in BJP has left many senior BJP hard core to sidelines. Moreover the public perception of looking at BJP as team B congress in small states of NE is another sign of great danger.A balancing act is the need of the hour for BJP in NE.The damage control mechanism of BJP is very weak. Many inexperienced are handling in NE. In spite heavily expecting on NE by BJP ,the key man Hemant Biswas Sharma basically a congressman is trying his best to recruit congressman. Thus we need a closed watch to the new development in the coming months. The setbacks in implementation of good schemes and complete lack of organisational skills will be a handicap for the party. However Modiji always sprang with some new ideas which we called Modi magic has to be seen. How this time Modi magic will operate has to be seen.
South, East and partial north and west will be against BJP’s chance for individual majority.If the political parties in these area have decided suitably, BJP will be seated as opposite party in Parliament. There may be a possiblity of good coalition government comprising regional parties to ensure the real federalism.
I know congress was under scams. But I also feel BJP would also be also doing the same scams, but must be doing carefully. Modi is only crude puller in his rallies. He says much but does very less. He is communal with a bad backgrounds. Where as congress is secular and much more care taker for the poor. Its Anna Hazare who fought against congress which give a chance to Modi to get majority. 2019 election will be very difficult for Modi.
BJP Govt led by Modiji will sweep the 2019 polls…offcourse pre 2014 most of the Indians didn’t know about Nehru led and other Gandhis led Govts. as well as their scams…now every citizen has come to know about the facts and as Narendrabhai delivered the post budget speech in both the houses ..it is very clear that due to blunders after blunder in policies made by Nehruji ..the biggest was partition in 1947..we are suffering still now…Modiji will bounce back with even more seats…
Modi came to power promising lots of changes, however nothing has changed on the ground. In fact it has gotten much worse, and will continue to get much worse if reelected. Congress was branded as a scam ridden party, and therefore the Indian people on the heels on Lokpal Movement voted for BJP to implement those plans. However nothing was implemented, people have forgotten the reasons why they were angry and wanted change….. Has anything changed? Only the faces have changed from Congress to BJP. Still playing the same old blame game, like 2 small children fighting over candy. Real change will be hard for India, whose people are weak minded, and forget pains of the past easily. Both partys and all its minister’s should be banned permanently from politics. We need new blood to lead this nation.
where is the new blood???Kejriwal cannot be the alternative or Kanyaiya kumar who cannot be youth icon. Modi is the only alternative…
There is no doubt that the BJP will not be able to retain power in the next general elections. Modi is the worst prime minister India has ever seen, worse than even Vajpai. How can these western educated people who know no language other than English see the pulse of common people.
a war with pakistan would change the whole situation – since pakistan has been engaging in a proxy war with india for so long that the indian prime minister can choose the time to say enough is enough and we are going to an all out war to end this manace once and for all – though the opposition may cry foul and insunuate that it is politically motivated – there is line beyond which they cannot go against the national mood which at times of war would be firmly behind the govt – in such an eventuality it would be re-play of the 1971 scenario
Very valid point. Modi may just do that after he loses Rajasthan and MP
MODI ji is only person who will be developing Bharat…
JAI
I stand by my views expressed above.
Modi ji in four years has taken some good initiatives to clean up the mess created by previous governments and made lives of people happy. But for Senior Citizens he has made their lives very very miserable. Those dependent on MIS have been hit hard. His govt has not done anything for EPS pensioners who are getting a paltry sum of Rs 1000 to Rs 2500 as pension per month despite the fact that Supreme Court has riled in favour of EPS 95 Pensioners. Modi I think will face the music in 2019 election and will hardly get votes from Sr Citizens and EPS95 Pensioners who constitute a sizable number of voters. If something is not done in the matter shortly there is every apprehension of Modi and BJP loosing in2019.
The present article seems to be a pr excersise for the present regime,too early to be taken seriously.
When Modi ascended to power, he came in with an announcement “Achhe din aa gaye”. Over 3 years have passed and now both Modi and rest of BJP leadership have realized that a country of billion can’t be changed overnight. One thing working in their favor is the full majority and hence they are able to pick their ministers. This helps them avoid any major scandals that can be squarely blamed on them.
The image of being corruption free is just not enough. BJP has to deliver as well which is where they are falling short. On the other hand, Congress still yields significant power through its proxies situated in different positions of power e.g. media, NGOs, universities, etc. This gives them fighting chance and helps them create narrative in their favor. As people realize that BJP won’t be able to deliver in short time, they are getting anxious and Congress proxies are using it to their benefit.
I believe 2019 outcome will depend upon whether people will be able to keep their anxieties in check, give more time to BJP like they did to Congress or get swayed away by narratives built by Congress proxies.
Saahil you seem to ignore the fact that about 52 lac crore of public money has gone to the pockets of UPA approved granted loan seekers.
Had Mr. Modi highlighted this by a white paper when he came to power in 2014, India’s credit worthiness would hv gone to dogs.
After 2004, Rest of the UPA parties have had party on Vajpayee ji’s excellent work between 1999 to 2004. Cong (I) has encouraged looting from Treasury.
one year is left for general election .As on day Rahul attack Nirab modi shows his weaknes to hlm.He added why Modi mum.But every one know about scam that in U.P.A Rule.This drama will get in budget section when cong give notice.MODI Govt clean.The budet who are benifisorys in bubget farmer and middle class health scheme and also benfit to seniot citizen 50thousand extensios t.d.s ‘ benfit for road connetivityto villges wifi connrvtion.Modi a good aretor explin these benfits as heart touching way to the urbon village people make him seond time prime miniser.g.s.t solutions slowly reached to the public.demonitisation wounds are cured slowly in the public.
It’s a falls propaganda to defame the well stablished modi govt.At present days about more than 70% of Indians are with modi G,so jai hind,jai modi G
Why are you adding MMS share to RaGas. I can vote for MMS but not RaGa. I would prefer Modi in comparison to him.
No matter how much Congress & other opposition parties try, the key would remain in the big states like that of UP where from the majority is elected. Even a 50% score in UP would ensure a cake walk for BJP. Another issue people face is that of credible alternative. Even if people may want to move away from BJP, they do not find any credible option to go to. Congress has failed drastically and with selecting Rahul Gandhi its president, Congress once again have left people with bad taste in their mouths. Gujrat election was a major win since the voter did not go for the anti incumbency of 22 years. No such example is there. People might not have been able to understand the latest move of the government in the form of Budget, however, they still believe that only Modi led government can do any good for them. Any populous move would only degrade the perception people have about Modi. People like and want to see right and just happening around them.
If Rajul Gandhi had taken the offer of NCP for tie-up and given them the 10% seats it asked for, Congress-NCP will be ruling Gujarat now
BJP having Modi as PM candidate wd win comfortable 2019. There is no opposition. RAGA is making him fool by giving false information to public.
The author is d #Piddi of donkey #Pappu. His wit has gone for wool gathering. He is intoxicated by BarBala Italian Taraka. As per my view, Modi will get more than 2014 seats.
When our system of governance and the constitution is questioned, many relevant questions pause and we have no proper answers. Although BJP is trying to create a Hindu Rashtra, we all know what would be the ultimate rections of the minorities and also the image of our country. Now the election is faught in the name of religion and majority people are mesmerized.
Surfacing every week a scam and is being highlighted ferociously sure damage the economy picture better (if any). All the development at standstill now, deteriorate further. The cow-belt Govts ignite the Mandir and hate issues resulting chaos everywhere. Finally, Modi’s theatrics won’t work.
BJP and Modi’s popularity has gone down compared to 2014. But, I feel it is because of the suicidal policies of the Modi govt
1. Doing politics in Kashmir, soldiers getting Killed, no hope of scrapping A-370
2. Muslim Appeasement, No hope of building Ram Temple in Ayodhya, BJP uses Ram temple as political tool and couldn’t take a stand to use all its powers to override any judgement or lobby to build the temple, while demolishing Babri Masjid, did they take approval? But, now BJP is doing Muslim appeasement through lobbying with Shia groups and banning Triple talaq to woo Muslim women to vote for them so they will never take a lead to build Ram Temple.
2. Doing caste politics, caste appeasement has gone too wrong, BJP has not made Advani the president because he is an upper caste and Kovind has become India’s president because of his Dalit brand, is this the criteria of choosing leaders of the country? There is no hope of removing Reservation System rather making it worse.
3. Forgetting Hindutva, people really believed Modi is a Hindutva leader who would have a strong viewpoint about rebuilding the country with founding principles of Hindu religion and culture and take stern action against Jihadi, Naxali, Missionary groups, it failed to take a stand Modi doesn’t even utter the word Hindutva after becoming PM
4. Letting Fraudsters go, Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi, Mallya, Zakir Naik, Raja, Kanimozi and the list goes on, Congress UPA leaders they are all free nobody is in Jail for scams and corruption and Modi govt didnt take action rather used them to do politics and hit at opposition.
5. Leaders and ministers who are not credible at all, Smriti Iranis, Arun jetleys and few others in Cabinet are not liked by people and of course due to their political links they become cabinet ministers this questions nepotism in BJP
Yogi Adityanath is all that people expected from Modi, but Modi couldn’t become a strong leader like Yogi Adityanath, and thus
Good analysis.You are right about plebiscitary nature of our Lok sabha elections.Winning or loosing a state election or a by election will not matter in a poll that is a referendum on five years’ performance of a government as well as function of alternatives available to voters.In 2009 LKA and BJP were not considered by voters as MMS was still considered an honest and more experienced alternative to L K Advani led BJP.In 2014 Modi changed this narrative.In 2019 Modi will have a lot to speak for by way of achievements.Rahul Gandhi led Congress is making the mistake of relying only on criticising Modi or his decisions or policies.By way of agenda he is only repeating jaded promises of helping poor or helping farmers or workers.If Congress fails to come out with alternate vision , 2019 will be a cake walk for Modi
Well said…
The corrupt and criminal politicians are ruling all over the country. The public must stop voting such anti-national politicians who have the criminal and corrupt background to bring prosperity and peace to our country. SC must ban all charge sheet politicians from fighting any future elections. The election commission should also take immediate measures to ban such criminal and corrupt politicians facing court proceeding to cleanse the dirtiest politics prevailing in this country.’
I stopped reading after this line: “The time-series data collected by Lokniti-CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) indicates that there hasn’t been any major change in the popularity of the BJP and Modi vis-à-vis 2014.”.
Only a naive or a bhakt would believe the above statement. Rest all Indian harassed and tormented by the economic and social policies of this government are desperately waiting for the day when Modi announces in Loksabha that he has dissolved the house for going to next polls.
I think you have a drink too much kool aid, in 2019 Modi will win with bumper seats LS.
Sure sure. People are nut crazy to vote for this cry baby bjp. Even if a dog sneezes blame it on Nehru. Rubbish. Bjp cannot do anything else but blame congress. People are sick and tired and are desperate to get rid of the infestation named bjp which is eating away the nations economic social and cultural wealth.
100 percentage true.
Yep. Coz clearly you know.
Its funny how each and every one of these keyboard warriors speaks on behalf of the”people”
“People” are tired. “People” are harassed. “People” want to throw xyz out. Cry me a river Princess. Speak for YOURSELF.
Fact is…NONE of you wankers have an inkling of what this massive electorate is capable of so how about you get that carrot out of your anus & deal with it ?
So true. When confronted with allegations of graft, their answer is “Congress did it too”. Graft allegations will catch up soon. For example, Cement price shot by by 60% after Gujarat elections. Manufacturers complain that they had to pump so much money into the coffers of BJP for the elections that they had no choice to raise the price (and Govt allowed it). The same goes for the price of drugs, which has shot up enormously. I am in the drug industry and we know now much companies have to give to BJP for elections.
All research or likewise article start with a hypothesis. What is hypothesis in subject article is clear.
In politics, that too in India, even a month is too much, the year long period would be beyond mathematical/statistics models.
Things keep changing at a faster pace till election.
BJP coming to power in 2014 with majority was beyond belief.
So it remains a hypothesis et el.
I Think This is Just a Speculation. Ground Situation and Indian Political Game are Beyond Imagination. You Can’t Predict Indian electrol scenario before 1 year. even 1 week time is game changer in Indian politics.
Well said !
Politics is , it’s seems to be game of its and buts. And we laymen cannot overlook developments of short terms happenings or misshappening during the period approaching 2019 Election.
1 . If we have good monsoon,
2. If we have scenario of devastating flood
3.State sponsored /ignored communal violence
4. Ram Janmbhumi based polarisation of votes ,
5. Manipulation in voters list including EVM problem taking center stage
6. Border disputes
And last of all the outcome of pre and post alliances of political parties.There may be more ifs ,if we go for searching but the political parties think otherwise up above the sky where a bird named Power flies.
Political pandit are seating in ac rooms and assuming but ground reality is different peoples are sufferig but beliving on Modiji Bjp will get clear majority in election 2019,
Good. Keep up the HOPE.
You are on the other side any way so keep your hope that sehzade will come to power
Prasanth, the moment you start leaving the facts on the back foot and get into name calling , your logic goes down the toilet. Rahul Gandhi has as much control as where he was born as Mr. Modi and continue to blame him for something he can’t control does not answer the fact that Modi government has lied and failed on multiple grounds
So you will settle for an even worse and useless politician called Rahul Gandhi? Maybe you need to start garnering facts about Rahul Gandhi and keep them on your front foot. If after garnering all the necessary facts you feel like voting for Rahul Gandhi, then God help you and God help this Nation.
Now coming to the meat of the matter, it doesn’t matter what Modi government did or did not do in these 5 years. What matters even more now is that we are heralding into a completely new World which will soon be dominated by AI. There will be massive job losses the likes of which we have never seen before. Now forget your biases and look at the hard facts… which leader do you think would be able to handle this situation? Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal or Narendra Modi?
rahul gandhi at his worst is less dangerous for country than modi at his best. modi has destroyed all independent entities i.e. courts, police, election commission & supreme court.
May be old arithmetic but not the outdated one. All the factors which worked in favour a modi in 2014 aren’t there now. 10 years of anti-incumbency, scams, media hype around modi, favourable victories in certain north Indian states, etc. Rather, the credibility of modi govt is very low, they are forced to be defensive, nothing much to atone their exaggerated claims. All these will matter to the non partisan voter. So there is much sense in the old arithmetic.
I doubt the people are as stupid as is made out to vote in the Congress led by RahulGandhi, he displays the intellect of a 16year old and even that is saying too much !!!
Exactly ! Inc (I) has been exposed too much to hide back anything to get votes.
Anti-incumbency increased vote% for NDA in Grujrat , but reduced % of vote for congress in Himanchal. Why? One has to look beyond traditional vote banks and address floating voter, RG and opposition does not have enough wisdome to understand and address.