Congress will have no truck with a party that has any doubts about Rahul Gandhi being the first among equals in the opposition camp.
Rahul Gandhi is not only ‘ready’ to become prime minister, he will not break bread with anyone who harbours any idea of putting up a challenge.
This aggressive alliance strategy indeed leaves no room for doubt about his bid for the PM’s post, and sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s official entry into politics last week is only one of the many deft moves he has made over the last few months.
The UP strategy
The Congress will have no truck with a party that has any doubts about Gandhi being the first among equals in the opposition camp.
Recent mood-of-the-nation surveys commissioned by TV channels have predicted a hung Parliament. Such projections would further stoke the ambitions of many in the anti-BJP brigade. But the Congress is not prepared to encourage them any longer—not even for the grandiloquent cause of a ‘Modi-mukt Bharat’.
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati is the most aggressive among the lot of prime ministerial hopefuls. Along with Akhilesh Yadav who sees the next prime minister coming from UP—keeping options open among Mayawati, his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi – the BSP chief sought to cut the Congress down to size in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere.
But Rahul Gandhi has hit back with the best weapon available in his arsenal in Uttar Pradesh, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The idea is to win more seats outside the family borough of Amethi and Rae Bareli even it comes at the expense of the SP-BSP and to the BJP’s advantage.
Also read: Priyanka Gandhi’s success in UP will be Modi’s success
Dealing with Mamata, Naidu
Among the top advocates of an anti-BJP front at the national level, there were two who sought to defer the issue of prime ministership post-election—Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.
After M.K. Stalin of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) proposed Rahul’s name for the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate last month, Naidu sought to differ, stating at a function in Visakhapatnam that the name would be decided post-elections.
The Congress has now decided not to ally with Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) even though the former again faces the prospects of decimation in the state where it had drawn a blank in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in 2014.
The Congress will also have no tie-up with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal where the BJP has got a huge momentum going in its favour. Saffron party leaders believe it could win 23 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It’s a tall claim and one takes it with a pinch of salt. But who saw the BJP sweeping Tripura until it happened?
Apart from Mayawati, Banerjee is the only one in the non-Congress, non-BJP grouping who can reach anywhere close to the magic figure of 40 in the Lok Sabha in 2019 elections—the minimum number of seats that political strategists believe would be essential for a leader to make a claim for the coveted throne in Delhi in the event of a hung Parliament.
The TMC chief enjoys a good rapport with the Nehru-Gandhi family but is also known to have uninhibited ambitions.
Also read: No one can deter Mamata Banerjee from her unrealistic PM ambitions now
Support for Rahul Gandhi
There is a longer list of prime ministerial hopefuls, apart from Mayawati, Naidu, and Banerjee. But the others on the list have kept the Congress in good humour.
Former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda of the JD(S) has publicly stated that he will have no hesitation in backing Rahul Gandhi as PM. Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has suggested that the prime minister would be chosen from the (opposition) party that secures the maximum number of seats, thus endorsing Rahul’s candidature.
Stalin has already weighed in favour of Gandhi as PM and so has Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD.
The Congress’s list of alliance partners in the states as of now figures the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the JD(S) in Karnataka, the RJD in Bihar and the NCP in Maharashtra. Further additions to the list would depend on what they think about the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate—nothing less and nothing more.
Also read: Sibling support, not sibling rivalry behind Priyanka Gandhi joining Rahul’s Congress
Make it official
While the Congress is now following an aggressive strategy to work out alliances that support Rahul’s bid for the top post, it has been hesitant in formally announcing the PM candidate.
Till a few months ago, two factors were at play that possibly stopped the party from making an announcement.
The first was borne out of a fear of the consequences of a Modi-versus-Rahul presidential-style contest. The opposition party saw better prospects in a contest that centred on issues and ideologies, and not on personalities.
The second factor was the Congress’ desperation to keep regional leaders in good humour and interested in an anti-BJP alliance. While these factors are still relevant, they not necessarily as strong today.
Now, with most contenders for the prime minister’s post not part of its alliance in states, the Congress doesn’t have to bother much about their sensitivity on this issue.
As for the other factor, the recent India Today survey has shown that Modi’s popularity rating is 46 per cent—down from 65 per cent in January 2017—and Rahul’s at 34 per cent, up by 24 per cent from last year. Modi is still more popular than Gandhi but the gap is narrowing fast.
The Congress, therefore, needs to rethink its strategy of not declaring a PM candidate. Does it want to show Rahul as a leader who is scared of a direct electoral fight with Modi or as a doughty warrior who is ready to fight no matter how fearsome the opponent is?
It’s not a difficult choice to make.
The most intelligent statement comes from Shri Sharad Pawar. Brings to mind Henry Ford’s, They can have any colour, so long as it is black.
Priyanka vadra, she appears once in 5 years and fools everybody. We Indian’s to be saluted
1. There is no doubt that BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the coming Lok Sabha (LS) election will be adversely affected by (a) Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into politics & (b) alliance of BSP & SP and by (b). 2. As I see it, one major advantage for the Congress party of Nehru-Indira Gandhi dynasty can be exploited in the Southern States, dynasty of Nehru-Indira Gandhi is known as a family with an all India image. In other words, Priyanka or Rahul Gandhi will not be regarded as someone who belongs to UP or as someone who will be more interested in furthering interests of people of Uttar Pradesh say in preference to say Madhya Pradesh or Karnataka. This is not case with any other politician, even PM Narendra Modi. 3. As regards Congress party’s performance in the coming LS election in UP, I think, it will be more dependent on benefit of division of votes. If as announced by Congress General Secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, Congress fields candidates for all 80 Lok Sabha (LS) seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), then there will be a minimum of three candidates in each LS constituency, one each of (a) SP & BSP alliance, (b) BJP & (c) Congress. Question in such a scenario would be this: who would benefit from division of votes? I think that is pretty uncertain. 4. BJP was the biggest beneficiary of division of votes in 2014 LS election. But it may not be so in 2019. Perhaps Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra may be able to play a significant role in containing electoral damage to Congress on account of BSP-SP alliance but whether her campaign results into significant gains in terms of LS seats of Congress is, I believe, pretty unpredictable. We will have to wait & see.