Congress president Rahul Gandhi has left Narendra Modi-baiters extremely upset. With alliances largely in place, battle lines drawn, they now know his views on the much-debated question about his priority in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections: Ousting Modi or reviving the Congress?
But they are unmindful of the fact that it’s not PM Modi who is the biggest political enemy of Rahul Gandhi or the Congress; it’s the regional outfits.
A large number of liberals, innately opposed to Modi or anyone even remotely linked to the RSS and those greatly disillusioned with him due to lapses in governance, wanted the Congress president to just dethrone Modi. It had as much to do with their ideological pride and prejudice as with their lack of trust in the Congress leader to achieve the revival of the Congress. They are infuriated with Rahul Gandhi now because he may have jeopardised ‘Mission Oust Modi’ by taking his own sweet time to seal alliances.
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The last shot
Rahul Gandhi would have his Congress colleagues believe that he is a master strategist who can achieve both goals. It’s beside the point that the party’s internal assessment as of today gives it 95 seats only in the coming elections. This tally is expected to go up to 125 or even 150 by the last day of polls, depending on whether you are talking to battle-hardened warriors or to dream merchants in the Congress. If this is the best scenario for the Congress in 2019, as per its own assessment, Rahul Gandhi might be right in driving hard seat-sharing bargains with regional outfits.
Is ousting Modi more important for the Congress at this stage? So important that it should play second fiddle to regional parties and keep ceding its space? There is near-unanimity in political circles and the commentariat: Yes, it is. The Congress will be finished if Modi is in power for the next five years, they say. Much of this apprehension emanates from the fact that the saffron juggernaut was unstoppable for five years. Modi-Amit Shah virtually attained their goal of a “Congress-mukt Bharat” by last November when the grand old party’s rule was reduced to just Mizoram, Puducherry, Punjab and Karnataka (as a junior coalition partner). During the same period, the Congress has been in disarray and its top leader the butt of ridicule.
So, what does the Congress achieve by ousting Modi? An immediate shot at power, one assumes. And power is the only lifeline of the Congress. But can Gandhi hope to become the prime minister with 125-150 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha?
Theoretically, he can. Manmohan Singh became the prime minister in 2004 with the Congress tally reading just 145. But then the Left Front gave it a solid cushion of 60 seats.
The Congress got 140 seats in 1996, but it had to prop up a United Front government led by Deve Gowda whose party secured just 46 seats. The moral of the story is that Rahul Gandhi could be the last leader to have a shy at the prime minister’s post if the Congress tally is below 150 (the most optimistic figure predicted by Congressmen), especially when 2019 could be the last chance for many veteran non-Congress leaders to realise their dreams.
And if the Congress has to prop up a third front leader as the prime minister, why should it cede any ground to regional outfits?
Besides, these arguments are premised on the possibility of the NDA not getting a majority. In fact, if the Congress is anywhere near 100, the ruling coalition would have a great chance of returning to power with a clear majority. If one were to assume that the 2019 verdict would be so fractured that both the BJP and the Congress would feel compelled to prop up a prime minister from another party, Modi and Shah have proven talent and resources to deny the Congress this opportunity.
So, to repeat the question in different words, what should Rahul Gandhi concentrate on ousting Modi by ceding his party’s space or using the opportunity to consolidate, if not expand, its base in states?
Also read: Rahul Gandhi is wrong in thinking anti-BJP votes will automatically come to Congress
States, step by step
Knowing the number of incorrigible optimists in the opposition party, I should present the worst scenario this way: Even if Modi gets another term, it wouldn’t perforce be doomsday for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi must have read John Bunyan: “He that is down need fear no fall….”
Besides, as the last round of assembly elections in November-December showed, when tested against anti-incumbency, the saffron party falters as it did in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan (and earlier in Goa and Punjab).
Even if the NDA manages to keep the Congress out of power at the Centre in 2019, the opposition party would be regaining its relevance nationally step-by-step as 17 NDA-ruled states go to polls in coming months and years.
There is no state where the BJP could reduce the Congress into irrelevance for good, seemingly. Even in Gujarat where the Congress has been out of power since 1995, it has remained a political force to reckon with. But in states where regional outfits have weaned away the Congress’ social base, the grand old party has been left on the political margins and reduced to irrelevance—Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana (the last two being the most recent).
The BJP has shown its ability to feed on smaller, regional parties but it’s the other way round in the case of Congress. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi’s decision to play hard ball with regional parties may not be as thoughtless and reckless as some bleeding hearts in the so-called secular camp make it out to be.
Precise and nicely flowing.
Congress should make use of your services .
I think Mr Rahul Gandhi should have remained present at CM Mamata Banerjee’s mega rally in Calcutta. That would not have automatically conceded the PM’s post to her; woh manzil abhi bahut door hai. It would have acknowledged that, in bits and pieces, no one could have stood in the way of the juggernaut, also that Didi had earned her right, at this point in time, to become a nucleus for opposition unity, at least to the limited extent of avoiding its vote being split. Till 23rd May, all of us are flying kites, anything could happen. However, the Congress President is making a priceless contribution to a second term for the incumbent.