BJP looks as vulnerable to anti-incumbency as any other party, which is not heartening news for the ruling party ahead of 2019.
New Delhi: Assembly poll results may not be a verdict on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity but they certainly bring a clear lesson for the BJP: That it cannot rely solely on the Modi factor to win elections.
Also, the saffron party could look like an unstoppable juggernaut when it comes to building a narrative of hope and aspirations in opposition-ruled states, but the BJP looks as vulnerable to anti-incumbency as any other party. That’s not heartening news for the ruling party ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
As the early trends suggested, the Congress was heading for a clear majority in Chhattisgarh while it was ahead of the ruling BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Although Modi did draw impressive crowds in his rallies in these states, it was the BJP chief ministers who were the dominant factors.
The chief ministers of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh — Raman Singh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan — enjoyed personal popularity despite their governments facing 15 years of anti-incumbency. It was the yearning for ‘badlav’ or change that could do them in. If the early trends hold true, the Modi factor clearly couldn’t make much impact.
In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje was hugely unpopular and the BJP banked on Modi magic to make up for her omissions and commissions. The trend suggested that the BJP could, however, take heart from the fact that the Modi factor might have averted a rout for the party in the desert state.
In Telangana, the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi seemed to be cruising to a clear victory. While the Congress has reasons to be disappointed, the BJP has none to cheer either.
As early trend suggested, the BJP’s tally — 5 in 2014 assembly polls — could come down in this election despite Modi having addressed three rallies in the state.
The Congress, the trend suggested, could lose Mizoram to the MNF, a regional outfit, but the BJP, which fielded candidates on 39 out of 40 seats hoping to play kingmaker, was leading on only one seat.
Also read: In early trends, Congress looks set to snatch Hindi heartland from BJP
Implications
Of course, these results do not hold much significance for 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which could be a battle of personalities between Prime Minister Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi and the former is still far ahead of the latter on the popularity chart.
But Tuesday’s results also indicate that while the heads of the government — say, Chouhan and Singh in MP and Chhattisgarh — could remain very popular, their popularity has its limitations when issues come to the centre stage.
Chhatisgarh is an unambiguous defeat for CM Raman Singh and his party. However, the CMs of MP – after three terms – and Rajasthan have put up very impressive performances. These are the powerful satraps both national parties need to nurture. The decision since 2014 to appoint inconsequential personalities – following Mrs Gandhi’s approach – as CMs could prove costly next year. Each appointee has to build up a fine body of work over five years to get reelected. Khattarji is not in the toxic league of Yogiji, of course, but both will let down their party. 2. One unrelated point. The style of campaigning may have to change for the general election. Mocking / cursing the Congress and its long departed leaders is not resonating with voters. New speech and script writers need to be hired.