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There Is Something In The Air

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It isn’t what you think. Political winds haven’t shifted yet. But the air is thick with doubts, economic stress is hurting and for the first time since his rise in 2013, PM Narendra Modi is fighting back.

There is a new pattern to how conversations often begin these days, particularly if prominent members of the entrepreneurial community are present. Someone usually beckons you to a more private corner and begins:

“Can I ask you a question, off the record?”

“I am a journalist, I am never off the record, sir. So please ask me anything on the record,” I say.

“No, that is OK, but it is a very sensitive question, so off the record please,” the interlocutor pleads.

“Sir, I have nothing to say off the record. People might sometimes speak off the record with a journalist, a journalist has no need to do so.”

It can go on for a bit on these lines, and then the deadlock is broken by the person telling you, with sheepish dread, that it is he who wants to be off the record. He doesn’t want anybody to know he asked this question. That word given, comes the question:

Aap kya sochtey hain, kuchh hawa badal rahi hai?” (Now, what do you think? Are the winds shifting?)

The reference is to the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I answer it with utmost honesty, and so I am writing it here on the record, with a simple ‘I don’t think so’. What you are hearing is usual mid-term noise. But there is, finally, some noise, although it’s well past the mid-term point in this government.

A picture of Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of ThePrintIf such a conversation came up again over this weekend, my response, however, may be somewhat clearer. I might still say, I don’t think the winds are shifting yet, but that there is something in the air. Something we haven’t sniffed since the electoral catharsis after the bitter years of UPA-2, its pessimism and doubts.

The new doubts, and some pessimism come from a growing unease over the state of the economy. The stall may have begun during the last two years of UPA, but has now gone on for too long. Six quarters of consecutive GDP decline, two 1,100-volt jolts (demonetisation and GST), job losses, wage freezes (except in the government with the 7th Pay Commission) are beginning to hurt.

Most people may not care for the finer points of RBI reports, monetary policy, GDP, current account deficit, balance of trade, real interest rates and other such exotic jargon. But the pain of somebody in the family losing her job, or not being able to get one, the frustration of forced under-employment at the family mithai shop, hurts. It also hurts if demonetisation punched a six-month hole in the output of your tiny bangle-making business. Having to wrestle with the intricacies of GST now is just that much salt over the wounds. The Prime Minister’s popularity remains formidable. If there was an election now, it doesn’t seem the result will still be radically different to 2014 or even what the last India Today ‘Mood of the Nation Poll’ (August 2017, 349 Lok Sabha seats for NDA) showed. But three things can be said for sure. The faithful have suffered for too long and doubts have begun to assail their minds. The Prime Minister is not in decline as most incumbents are expected to be at the two-thirds point of their tenure. But his ascent has stalled. Politics can’t stay frozen for nearly two years until the next polls.

Concern was visible in the Prime Minister’s spirited, hour-long speech to the gathering of company secretaries this week, hours after the RBI had lowered this year’s growth estimates further and denied the government the steroidal breather of a rate cut. The speech was vintage Modi. All fire, fury, ferocity and confidence. But, for the first time since 2013, he was fighting back. Combative for sure, but on the defensive. You could read it in his repeated comparison of his three years in power with the Congress party’s last two, which were so bad, it was reduced to 44 in the Lok Sabha. I bet his supporters went home all fired up again, such is his magic with words, and so magisterial his sway over public opinion. But worry showed on his face.

It also shows in many of his recent actions. His attack on those “spreading pessimism” was prickly, and of a piece with Indira Gandhi’s condemnation on those “creating cynicism” in her crisis months and former US Vice-President Spiro Agnew’s fabled flourish of “nattering nabobs of negativism”. The return of the Economic Advisory Council he had dismantled earlier was the first rollback of an idea. Within months of pouring scorn over Harvard-educated economists, he has now drafted one at least from Princeton (Surjit Bhalla) in this council. The second was the rollback of excise on petrol and diesel, weeks after senior ministers had aggressively defended these as most necessary to raise resources for development. The new tourism minister was so bold (this isn’t sarcasm, I agree with him) as to remind the whining middle classes that those owning motor-vehicles should stop complaining about taxes. Now, BJP leaders are tweeting to thank the Prime Minister for this “pro-poor” step. The finance minister has said he will write to state chief ministers to cut their VAT too. Between these two blinks came RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s “state of the union” address on Dussehra, expressing concern over jobs, prices, traders and economic distress. This is unusual when the BJP is in power.

The government draws comfort from the state of the opposition, its lack of a leader to match the Prime Minister’s appeal, energy and focus, or a common agenda. But as we know, a most popular leader can also suffer a decline if people get so angry they vote against him, never mind the rival. That’s how Rajiv Gandhi lost despite his much larger majority in the Lok Sabha than Modi’s now.

That tipping point looks quite far yet. But there are interesting straws in this wind. Among the first indications of trouble for a leader is the appearance and popularity of inspired jokes, and in these times, funny memes. About the Modi government, that started about six months ago and has gathered momentum. Second, however broken the opposition may be, it has cracked the science of social media warfare. The BJP used it brilliantly to demolish the Congress and allies. Now it doesn’t look so one-sided.

In fact, the balance of firepower in this electronic warfare is shifting. AAP was always good at this, Congress has learnt it, and the very articulate and well networked community of what The Economist described this week as India’s “lingering Left-liberal elite” has added its might, and the BJP has competition. The BJP had put itself at great advantage by controlling the message. That control is now fraying.

The Prime Minister put his oratorical best foot forward this week. He has no competition there. But at this likely inflexion point, just this won’t be enough. Too much energy these three years has been invested in turning the party into an election-winning machine. Governance needs greater attention, ironically just when important state elections come closer. If the government doesn’t revive its waning momentum, a slide could be lurking. Just changing the message won’t do. To recover its mojo, the Modi government needs a more impressive set of economic figures to flaunt. And of its own tenure, not from the UPA’s past.

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  1. Thank you for every other wonderful post. The place else
    may anybody get that kind of information in such an ideal method of writing?

    I have a presentation next week, and I am at the search for
    such info.

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    like used cars in Bangalore, pre owned cars and second hand cars in Bangalore.

  3. Ambedkar’s Annihilation of Caste speech so succinctly spells it out that you cannot build a world class society with caste differences. The BJP government has exacerbated those differences not just amongst caste but also amongst religion. And we also now seem to be led by the so called “superior castes” mentioned in the shastras. This is fundamentally wrong and this government will fail if not today, then on another day. Economic weakness and lack of talent factors will just make it faster.

  4. One thing I don’t understand when Congress wins an election(after 2014),it’s described as people’s mandate or against “Modi Wave”. But at the same time when BJP wins, then it’s turned a Election-winning machine not people’s mandate. Same group of people abusing Modi for communal before 2014 now calling him a failure economists which he never claims for himself.

  5. What is said is to keep ruling dispensation happy & saving own skin
    Which is not espected from a person of Ur caliber

  6. In Bengal BJP president of the state heckled. In Gujarat there were disruptive noise while AmitShah addressing. Even the changing decibels of speeches into shrill voices common man observing intently. Voters go to cast their votes keeping in mind their sufferings. They don’t cast votes by reading articles.

  7. Mere wishful thinking of anti Modi/anti BJP brigade.The one hour speech referred by you has made many thing clear regarding state of our economy.Modi said that he will not compromise on the long term interests of the country for any short term gains.

  8. SG Sir..huge diff in 2012..Govt allowed the things to drift…here Govt has gud 1 year plus. Fixes hv started happening …apart fm eco…OBC will roll out…Ram temple another back up

  9. The author has tried his best to appear neutral but has unfortunately not succeeded in passing-off his wishes as impending reality Looking at things from the other side of the spectrum, the fact that Modi has been able to out-rightly counter the onslaught of his opponents for good three years, in itself speaks of his grit. Even if the recent maneuvers appear to be defensive, as the writer would like to believe, Modi’s ability to convert crisis into an opportunity should not be under-estimated. AS far as the economy is concerned, it is never as good as the government of the day projects or as bad as the opponents portray. Some slowdown was always expected after the two 100-volt jolts, not so much because of their superficial impact but more because of the cultural shift they have imposed on the business community that was used to a more ‘amenable’ way of doing business. Even if we ignore the jobs created by the persistent infrastructure push over the last three years, and a relatively good monsoon this year, the overall employment scenario, which has always remained challenging, hasn’t deteriorated substantially. On the other hand, as much as the opponents might want to disbelieve, the fact remains that large sections of the population have also benefited directly through schemes like Ujwala, Ujala, Mudra, DBT, etc. It would be difficult to expect crores of such direct beneficiaries to be forgetful, especially with the kind of aggressive social media coverage the welfare schemes have obtained. Lastly, let us also not commit the mistake of mistaking the silence over high profile corruption cases of the previous government, as permanent closure. Sufficient political arsenal might have been gathered on these cases stealthily over the last three years while the media was busy with petty aspersions. This alone could be sufficient to win another central election.

  10. A more liberal view from a liberal mefia who did not go down aggressively against the PM. Yes economy is down due to GST and Demonitisation. But this bitter pill had to be taken at some stage.

    Now we need to see how the last 1.5 years turn around. Modi has always surprised people, politicians and especially the media

  11. A more liberal view from a liberalisation who did not go down aggressively against the PM. Yes economy is down due to GST and Demonitisation. But this bitter pill had to be taken at some stage.

    Now we need to see how the last 1.5 years turn around. Modi has always surprised people, politicians and especially the media

  12. Nice article Shekhar Gupta ji. The tone of the article was set perfectly, no whining or bashing, but with nice and slow facepalms. Hop the Oratorical master gets the point.

  13. Dear sir,

    You have well articulated the political situation especially about the govt and Mr. Modi… Hope Govt takes note of these and act accordingly to improve the confidence of the people who have faith on Mr. Modi.

    Rgds Venkat.

  14. It is no surprise that the poor people in the country are in such a miserable state when a journalist from a business publication supports > 100 % taxes on petrol — High petrol taxes that affect poor people much more so than “the whining middle classes”. And the same high taxes are then used to help ~800 members of parliament live in tax-payer subsidized housing – while many of those houses each have a market price equal to >Rs. 600 crores.

  15. I wonder at the consistent manufacturing of new ideas to down Modi since aeons. I bet name an euridite army of our wonderful journalist who is never off record, I can tell what he has written. Further, Congressme, Corrupt, Free loaders and Muslims can never accept Modi doing good for India.

  16. The economy was the least of anyone’s concerns. There were so many peripheral issues taking centre stage, creating bursts of static, drowning out what ought to have been the symphony of a government purring like a Rolls Royce engine, its tanks brimful of political capital, enjoying the enormous tail wind of drastically lower oil / commodity prices. Instead, we now have India growing more slowly than many of its peers. So the wind is shifting. Good, constructive, remedial action is required, lest it become a gale.

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