Some of the typically sluggish indicators such as consumer sentiment, bank credit have seen a pick up. But escalating geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices pose risks.
The currency is likely to have stable value, limiting appeal as an asset. It may be safer than holding cash, but tech, connectivity will pose issues, if meant for wide use by households.
Lack of dedicated debt agency leads to conflict between managing govt debt and inflation. RBI chose former, but rate hike would have helped normalisation, attracted foreign funds.
The big capex push will not only create productive assets, but also more jobs. This, in turn, will create sustainable demand as well as crowd in private investment and push growth.
The Modi government has given a boost to capital expenditure and announced several infra projects to pump-prime private investment and economic recovery.
Budget should offer immediate relief to people worst hit during pandemic, focus on public investment in infrastructure, continue disinvestment plans for PSUs.
Budget could also look at tax rebates to stimulate housing demand, raising standard deduction, getting rid of redundant stock market taxes to encourage households to invest.
Rules-based framework should be put in place up front for govt to exit from Vi, sell 35.8% stake to public. This should prevent future govts from treating it permanently as PSU.
With both GDP and inflation rising, central banks around the world may hike interest rates leading to instability in financial markets. But it’s not all bad news.
While the rest of the world has converged on a model—technical judgement inside the institution, as a permanent organisational property—India remains a conspicuous and costly outlier.
The shipment earlier bound for Gujarat’s Vadinar has changed course amid payment concerns; could still reach India if issues are resolved, according to Kpler.
INS Arihant was first vessel under SSBN project and was quietly commissioned in 2016. The second indigenous SSBN, INS Arighat, was commissioned in August 2024.
It’s easy to understand why the government can’t speak the hard truth. When this war ends, as all wars do, India’s interests will lie with both the winner and the loser.
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