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Riding A One-Trick War Horse

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The Narendra Modi government has invested too much time and capital to further its political conquest. Today’s crisis shows it may be left with too little time in this term to refocus on governance.

History tells us there are two kinds of conquerors. One who consolidates after a victory and settles down to govern, improve the lot of people and remains content within the empire. The second is the constant campaigner, for whom conquest is an obsessive fix.

It is risky now to use examples from Mughal history although it is tempting to compare the relative legacies of a significant dynast in either category, Akbar and Aurangzeb, and how history judges either. It is safer, and more illustrative to talk about Emperor Ashoka, who represents both types in one life. A disruptive conqueror in the first phase of his reign, and a calm, reflective, and reformist ruler in the second, after Kalinga. This is when he made a lasting impact, laid the principles of modern governance and foundations of India strong enough to last for millennia. It is that Ashoka, in his second innings, whose symbols adorn our national emblems and flag.

The era of military conquest ended long ago. Today’s leaders campaign for political power through elections, alliances and manoeuvres. What Narendra Modi recorded in the summer of 2014 was a political victory unparalleled in India’s history. Members of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty may have won more seats than him in the past, but never was an incumbent defeated so humiliatingly, and that too by an outsider. The two-thirds point of his reign after that, is a good time for Modi to review what kind of ruler he has been so far.

On honest reflection, he might agree that he and his generals never rested their cavalries. They have been incessantly in campaign mode. It isn’t just that the government and the party have become single-focus election-winning machines. Besides the targeting of rivals through state agencies, and opening up new fronts in distant states where usually regional satraps rule and the BJP hardly exists, the government has also been unable to break out of the rhetoric that won it the election. All of these have distracted it from the boring, patient and hard grind of governance. The result is today’s low mood. This predicament is complicated by the fact that it has come when there isn’t sufficient time left for course-correction and recovering lost ground. Going ahead, there is a state election every six months. And each one, in these 18 months leading to the big one, is crucial.

No successful leader rests on his laurels. It isn’t, therefore, our case that Modi should have frozen his political expansion. Truly great leaders, however, have the skill and patience to prioritise their time and mind space. Even more important than these is their political capital. It is at its peak in the early honeymoon phase, and then wanes. The most difficult decisions should be taken when public support is at its strongest and you have the time to see your efforts bear fruit. In its campaigning obsession, the Modi government wasted that opportunity. It has left hard decisions, particularly on the economy, for too late. Hence the current crisis.

There were three prongs to the spectacular BJP/Modi campaign in 2014: achhe din (better days), a muscular national security policy and the fight against corruption. Of these, the third had packed the greatest degree of hype: the promise of recovery of lakhs of crores of stolen money, the return of so much Indian black money that every Indian could be sent a gift-cheque of Rs 15 lakh, the prompt arrest and prosecution of all corrupt and powerful people, beginning of course with Robert Vadra.

The most difficult decisions should be taken when public support is at its strongest and you have the time to see your efforts bear fruit.

This is the horse a clever ruler would have gotten off first, after it had taken him to his destination. The Modi government fell in love with it. The balance sheet at, say, the 42-month mark has very little to show on this count. A few raids and meandering cases against defeated rivals, a new reign of tax terror and very little recovered wealth. If anything, the one powerful “crony-capitalist crook” the government could have made an example of, Vijay Mallya, escaped and sadistically rubs his finger in India’s eye from Britain.

Demonetisation was one audacious, if poorly thought out move that, it is quite evident now, failed to uncover any black money, whatever it may have done to enhance the use of digital cash. It ended up being disruption for disruption’s sake. It left the unorganised sector and supply chains devastated and combined with an already slowing economy to produce this awful job distress. It also narrowed the government’s stabilisation window for GST by creating a scorched-earth situation for the micro and small-scale economy in the months leading up to GST implementation.

The government in a permanent mode of political expansion left major policy decisions waiting. The bullet train is an example. If it was to take five years to build, the smart time to launch the project was the government’s first year. By the end of its term much progress would have been visible on the ground. It’s too late for that now. The next 18 months are too short a period for visible progress, while giving the opposition the chance to ridicule a good idea as wasteful in times of economic distress.

Similarly, heavy-lifting like bank consolidation, clearing up the bad debt mountains, large infrastructure projects such as Mumbai’s coastal road and new airport are yet to see a brick laid. For a government that takes pride in its project implementation ability, it’s embarrassing that work hasn’t even begun on its political showpiece projects like the offshore Shivaji memorial in Mumbai. The larger ‘Make In India’ project has stalled, and barring the two-squadron Rafale order, defence production or acquisition shows no breakthrough. Since this government lays such store by its commitment to modernising the defence forces, it is instructive to note that the only acquisitions in its three years were deliveries on orders by the UPA. Military acquisitions do have a long gestation period, but even three-and-a-half years is too much time spent without resolving the fundamental issue of choosing an assault rifle for the Army.

From banking reform to financial reconstruction, bullet train to Navi Mumbai airport, to choosing a new medium fighter aircraft to be made in India, time is running out in this NDA term. How could a leader as energetic and astute as Narendra Modi have left it for so late?

Here’s a hypothesis. The headiness of 2014 and subsequent state election wins persuaded the BJP to take a second term for granted. It presumed it had the time and space to use its first term mainly for political conquest of all of India and destruction of all opposition, national or regional, however small and distant. Once total, unchallenged power was secured, there would be plenty of time in subsequent terms for the more thankless job of governance, like a dominant team taking it easy in the first innings and leaving the hard work for the second. But cricket isn’t the only game of glorious uncertainties. Politics, if anything, is less forgiving, and doesn’t appreciate complacency. That is one explanation for the Modi government’s waning elan.

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23 COMMENTS

  1. Do you morons sincerely believe the Modi and BJP have lost?????? Do you sincerely believe Modi has nothing to offer in his goodie bag?????? Modi will come to power.. and with style in 2019.. and God I would love to see you press-titutes applying burnol.. 😀

  2. partly true the feeling of national pride is up though govt is blundering on defence preparedness the recent article in india today suggests they want to get whatever is available under the make in india banner even if appears to be Decades old technology
    Our negotiating power should be such that we get the best tech if not the latest to counter China our enemy number one economically and geopolitically and not Pakistan
    Demonetisation and GST have certainly not made any impact
    Imagine paying a tax of nearly 100 rs on two subway sandwiches worth rs 400

  3. By and large the article is a good reminder though Mr.Gupta has no love lost for Modiji.Pojects like bullet train ,though funded by japan at negligible cost could have waited.instead the the training programme as reported is true,should have given much more importance.Absence of experienced, capable and dependable leaders to take responsibility is one of the reasons for slow implementation.Even ministers like Mr.Prabhu and Gadkari have to complain about delays in implementation due to bureaucratic delays .
    I feel Govt can still impress people/voters if Hon.Prime Minister shake up his colleagues and officers.Ultimately Rural India decides the future of political parties.We have seen this in 2004 when Shri.Vajpayee lost despite “India Shining ” campaign with Mr.Shourie and Yashwant sinha campaigning vehemently.
    Let Prime Minister seriously implement {1} village Adoption {2] give high importance to Khadi production and {3]develop industrial parks in All States to train skilled technicians coming out of ITIs and train them with support of our MNCs and foreign collaboration to manufacture products required for defense,railways,tel- communications and various other industries.we have talents .it should be channelized and utilised properly.
    Agricultural production and crating marketing facilities can be done much faster than creating infrastructure for manufacturing.Competent minister/s should h be given responsibility for implementing schemes .PMO must monitor progress periodically.If farmer gets legitimate price for his products and consumer also have to pay only reasonable price majority of common men will be satisfied.
    same with rural employment and improving rural economy by creation of jobs .Fortunately Govt is free from corruption and all efforts of opposition to malign them has not succeeded.

  4. My respect for Shekar Gupta as an intelligent journalist is coming steadily down with his articles singularly focusing on anti Modi agenda. This article particularly how a journalist can push one sided story and hide other relevant aspects. Here are few counter points :
    1. Lack of majority in Rajya sabha and partisanship shown by Congress in preventing all important legislations made it plain to even a simple observe that BJP had to get majority in RS to get any meaningful legislation passed. Thus the aggressive focus on all assembly elections and breaking existing Congress alliances like Bihar. Shekhar could have mentioned this at least in passing instead of the long story about conquerors.

    2. No big change can happen instantaneously. Most of BJP supporters understand that Modi will need at least 2 terms to make the real impact on our nation bound by several demographic and bureaucracy related issues. What ever progress is being made is far more than what congress have. Simple point in illustration – is Shekhar expecting a complex deal such as Bullet train to be achieved in first year of the govt term? Really, are you serious? Same goes for defence deals. My conversation with some folks dealing with defence orgs in India points to contrary where they are clearly seeing much faster decision making since 2014.

    If Shekhar had listed these facts too and pointed out the low pay BJP is taking it would have been a balanced article.

    I look forward to reading well researched articles with depth from Shekhar but not good if he is taking us for fools.

  5. What nonsense. Ashoka spent all his time, energy and the empire’s money on propagating Buddhism. So the empire became bankrupt and there was no money to pay the salaries of the bureaucracy and the army. That’s why the Maurya Empire collapsed. Chanakya and Chandragupta had painstakingly built India’s first empire – and Ashoka destroyed it. That is Ashoka The Great’s contribution to India . . .

    • I never read detailed history of India so I can’t say I know that the reader, ‘Indian’, is correct. But the thought occurs to me what if s/he is right. At the same time, what if this view is completely out of whack. Don’t know.

  6. The subordinates of Modi are just street smart and they know specific pattern of problems and tactics to address the same. Todays economic is very different, volatile and you need to be an intellectual to take wise decisions. I don’t see any such individual in Modi’s team. Another biggest problem is they are very absessive and never try to learn from mistakes. They are defending all their wrong actions at any cost. This is very dangerous because justification of your wrong deeds neither help you to grow nor solve the problem. Yes, I totally agree they are left with shorter period to make an visible impact. Mood swing has already started. BJP trump card castism may not be sufficient in 2019 election, because you cannot fool people twice.

  7. Shekhar Gupta has crossed his use by date for journo long time back …so hallucinating that Army was marched with Delhi kind of stupid theories. This is one such pot boiler with no substance. BJP has to increase its base and presence it cannot rely on cow belt states which milked to max last time.

  8. The subordinates of Modi are just street smart and they know specific pattern of problems and tactics to address the same. Todays economic is very different, volatile and you need to be an intellectual to take wise decisions. I don’t see any such individual in Modi’s team. Another biggest problem is they are very absessive and never try to learn from mistakes. They are defending all their wrong actions at any cost. This is very dangerous because justification of your wrong deeds neither help you to grow nor solve the problem. Yes, I totally agree they are left with shorter period make an visible impact. Mood swing has already started. BJP trump card castism may not be sufficient in 2019 election, because you cannot fool people twice.

  9. Mr S.Gupta,
    Your article is least objective in assessment of Mr PM Modi’s 3 and a half years Government.
    A senior jurno of your stature seems to have an axe to grind against Mr Modi.Why have you not included in your article the Economic Mess that PM Modi inherited from the UPA Government ? Also, he is a novice to Luyten’s Delhi power- politics, because he is first timer MP and the PM.
    Your comparisons of Modiji Rule of 42 months with Akbar’s Rule of around 40 years in Medieval Indian History is definitely in a poor taste; and reflective of your infertile brain with age having caught on you .
    Your poor brain cells imagined the Army- Coup theory during General VK Singh’s time in UPA Government.
    Similarly, you overlooked the rampant corruption in UPA-2 and policy paralysis.
    Also, the Family Bloodlines politics of UPA.
    Mr Modiji is not carrying the baggage of Family Bloodline.He is a Karamyogi that has best happened for India.
    Mr Gupta, a mother takes 9 months to give birth to a child. Another one year the child takes to walk , and by 5 years he joins Nursery Class.Do you think , Mr PM is a magician to give us all in 42 months or 5 years.
    He needs 10 years to root out the legacy of counter productive policies of Congress Misrule.
    Please grow up Mr S.Gupta. We know your grooming under Mr Arun Shourie is deep rooted… and you are unable to write objectively about Mr Modiji.
    He gave us , the Armed Forces Veterans the OROP in 24 months of his Rule, that was denied for 42 years by Congress and its allies.
    Col Manmeet Singh, SM, Apolitical and Agnostic Veteran, New Delhi

    • After reading the article, almost identical thoughts emerged in my mind, especially comparing Modji’s 42 months with Akbar’s 40 years! Shekhar has always been prejudiced, now it is more prominent in his writings.

  10. My accusation is Modiji is habitually more fond of announcing grand, spectacular, big bang things for the sake of enhancing his image (can any one deny his image consciousness?), his political, electoral image, than doing good things for the sake of people. Has he not admitted to so much recently when he said that he was not for doing ordinary things but for doing grand things, in the context of the statue of Sardar at the site of Narmada dam (One is tempted to react that he would be doing grand things not from his own money but from the trust money of the people of the country)? I would even argue that his much proclaimed Gujarat model is hollow because Gujarat has achieved business and industrial development under every regime because of the inherent trade & industrial acumen of its people rather than because of any particular Government. The achievements in social indices would be more appropriate to consider, if one were to judge the real contribution of any regime in Gujarat. But, as the author has rightly pointed out, he is a Sikander type, winner of elections after elections, or just that?

  11. Dear Shekhar,
    Governance is a difficult path to tread on, requiring all stake holders to measure up. Modi needs to adopt a bottoms up approach. An approach where we empower honest from all quarters. Let us forget about catching thieves and criminals. Let us put so much premium on honesty that we are substantially a better people and country in turn.

    Ways of past 70 years are alluring and strong enough to allow a fresh thinking.

    We need to radically alter our way of doing things and start with a new constitution that is rooted in the ground reality of our people and it’s institutions. A simple document that even a common man can understand.

    Do I expect it to be heeded by this or any other government? Sadly the answer is no.

    We are stuck in our past and deification of leaders of freedom movement has blind folded us even has world has changed drastically.

  12. I grew up in Sachin Tendulkar era charmed by his strokes. Even those days, when the master batsman will miss a ball or two, people will comment: “Aise nahin, aise khelo!”. The argument in the article looks somewhat similar 🙂

    It’s nice to hear the suggestion that economic heavy lifting like bank liquidity, bullet train, Mumbai infrastructure projects should have been front-loaded in 2013-2014. That’s like saying if you had made runs at 10 an over in the first 20 overs, you would be cruising by now 🙂

    Yeah, and where would the money come from? The writer conveniently forgets that fiscal deficit by the end of UPA2 were close to 5 percent, inflation above 8 percent and growth had hit below 5. One of the biggest achievements of Modi government has been fiscal discipline (helped by oil prices). Yes, FII investments had started pouring in by 2014, because of government change, but those were limited to stocks (and not bonds). Plus, there was so much uncertainty about outflows from the maturing 30 billion dollar bonds that India had taken in 2010-2012. I think land reform could have been a big change, but it was scuttled by the opposition. I don’t think Modi had a political capital (or votes in Rajya Sabha) to carry out reforms in the first two years. It was only in his 3rd year, after defeating opposition parties in (state) election after election, did he earn political capital and enough seats to do the heavy-lifting.

    And as we can see, reforms cause a dip in popularity. They always do. But they are needed and pay in the long run.

    • In 2013 crude was at $150 per barrel, this went down to 25 and averages 50 presently. This has meant 100 billion cut down on Costa , hence the lowering of the fiscal deficit. Aadhar, debt mnrega were all started prior to 2014, but we’re constantly stalled by the BJPs non cooperation. After the financial collapse of the WORLD economy, the then govt maintained aGDP growth higher than what this govt has achieved. Note, the new formula adds 2% to the old valuation.. Digitalisation could have been encouraged by the banking sector, without the disruption of demonetisation. GST is NOT a single rate tax, and emerging evidence of tinkering with rates shows that tha Govt real aim was to further drain everyone’s pockets, and was like demonetisation not thought out. The main beneficiaries of demonetisation are the Banks that received over 4 lakh crores, the tax and excise dept and municipal corporations that received inflated receipts paid out of otherwise banned currency. The fact is the economy has slowed down, lower inflation has not abated the misery of already high prices. ONGC has not produced an extra ounce of crude or gas in the last 25 years, inspite of fuel demand exponentially rising. No efforts have surfaced to discover gold, silver and diamonds which comprise a huge part of our imports. Curryin favour with China has only increase our dependence on them, with no tangible steps to level the balance of payments.

  13. Looking back, I think the first Budget was a wasted opportunity, likely because Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand were going to the polls a few months later. There was serious anti incumbency in all three and the afterglow of that magnificent summer victory would have seen the BJP through. The troubled economy the new government inherited, especially the problem of NPAs in the PSBs, merited inmediate attention. The promise of higher growth required serious reforms. 2015 started with Delhi and ended with Bihar. The appetite for reform waned, populism appeared more rewarding. Now, in end 2016, there is a full fledged economic crisis. One year is insufficient time to turn the ocean liner around. The only saving grace, which has kept us afloat, is the fortuitous fall in oil / commodity prices. Politics one does not understand, but the national interest requires all the right things to be done for the economy. It would have been wonderful – and electorally very rewarding – if all this had been taken up in 2014, starting with the introduction of GST.

  14. Writing on the wall is clear. People should not get the feeling that mandate is squandered. Feeling is never the less closer than one thiks.

  15. Our own areas of assessments are: being sovereign, democratic, secular and republic.
    On a sovereignty front, NDA government accelerated a speed of assimilation with US, our relations with Russia are at low ebb, non alignment is a non entity, part of NSG,dysfunctional SARC, nationalistic attitude aka majority’s view and aggresivve posturing. Governance is outsourced to Vivekanand And India Foundations. Dovals Senior and Junior, active but failed.
    Democracy is about winning elections. Perfectly done. If not majority, then wholesale transfer.
    Secular got a new defination as a panthnirpeksha. No scope for others.
    Republic – Repulic TV replaced the role of prasar bharti. Or New suit in a republic day. Rule of law outsourced to go rakshaks and similar.
    Socialist- Dumped and burried. But posturing to RSS.
    In Social sphere extra ordinary achievement questioning ethos of tolerance, ahimsa.
    In Economy – ask Yeshwant sinha.
    Overall as per Shekhar Gupta Mood is low.

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