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Why the BJP is sleepless over Jats & Muslims joining hands in Uttar Pradesh poll

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Many will vote for RLD but only because the candidate is a Muslim; say Jat-Muslim unity thing of the past.

Kairana: The Kairana Lok Sabha bypoll is being seen as another test of the potency of a joint opposition against the BJP but at the core of this contest is the question of whether Muslims can forget the 2013 riots, and join hands with Jats to vote for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) candidate, the joint opposition nominee.

The RLD was the dominant force in the Western UP region due to its successful consolidation of Jats, its traditional voter base, and Muslims. But post the 2013 riots, Muslims and Jats drifted away. As a result, the RLD didn’t manage a single seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Now, for the Kairana bypoll, slated for 28 May, Muslims appear to be once again aligning with Jats to vote for the RLD. It, however, doesn’t mean that they have forgotten the past.

The sticking issue is a series of riots that rocked Western UP in August 2013. They had their genesis at Kawwal village, where two Jat youth, Sachin and Gaurav, allegedly killed a Muslim boy Shahnawaz over alleged stalking of a Jat girl. Angry Muslims killed the brothers in retaliation.

It was the flashpoint for widespread incidents of violence between the two communities across the region, in which, over 50 people were killed in the following two months.  Thousands of Muslim families had to leave their villages and shift to temporary camps established by the local administration. They later sold their lands and houses to the Jats of their respective villages at throwaway prices.

The ramifications

The fallout of the violence was felt in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when Jats voted en masse for the BJP. In Kairana, BJP MP Hukum Singh won by over 1.3 lakh votes against the SP candidate Nahid Hasan.

In the 2017 assembly elections, while Jats began returning to the RLD fold, Muslims largely snubbed the party. “Though we lost, our votes increased in 2017 as compared to 2014,” says senior RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary. “For example, in Shamli assembly seat, we got 33,000 more votes. Since Muslims didn’t vote for us. It was the Jats who came back.”

In Kairana, the RLD, mindful of the ground realities, has fielded a Muslim candidate, Tabassum Begum, against Mriganka Singh of the BJP. Mriganka is the daughter of Hukum Singh, whose death in February necessitated this bypoll.

But even if Jats are ready to embrace them, Muslims are wary. “We are not voting for (RLD chief) Ajit Singh. We are voting for Tabassum,” says Mohd Sajid, 52, a carpenter from Jalalabad. “Where were they when we were mercilessly killed and forced to leave our homes. The Jats can forget, as they were the ones who killed us but how can we? There will never be unity among Jats and Muslims in the region.”

Muslims in Gangoh, where SP MLA Nahid Hasan was addressing a gathering, echoed similar views. “Had it not been for a Muslim candidate, we would have voted for Kanwar Hasan, an independent,” says Riyaz Sayeed, 23.

Kanwar has also joined the RLD, providing a major boost for the party that is being backed by the BSP, SP and the Congress in these bypolls.

The RLD has also split campaigning, with Tabassum largely focusing on the regions that have a substantial Muslim population, leaving Jayant Chaudhary to cover the remainder of the areas.

“It is better to divide the constituency among ourselves so that there is proper focus on specific regions. It’s a huge constituency with five assembly seats and one person can’t cover the entire area,” says Chaudhary.  “There is nothing like that. I am going to all areas wherever possible,” says Tabassum, while attending an Iftar party in Jalalabad.

A nervous BJP

It is not just the Jat-Muslim consolidation that is worrying the BJP. With the opposition firmly behind the RLD, Dalit voters too appear to be moving towards the party.

Kairana has around 16 lakh voters, of whom Muslims are the highest at 5.6 lakh. There are 2.5 lakh Dalit voters, especially Jatavs, while Jat voters number 1. 6 lakh. Though the BJP has a firm grip on the Gurjar vote (1.35 lakh voters) and has support among the Kashyaps (2 lakh), the Sainis (1 lakh) and other OBC communities (1 lakh) in the constituency, any coming together of Dalits and Muslims, who total 7 lakh voters, will severely dent the party’s prospects here.

Party candidate Mriganka Singh is aware that this bypoll will be a very close contest. In a meeting of party workers at her residence in Kairana, when a party worker from Agra told her that she would win by 2 lakh votes, she was quick to add, “Yeh aar-par ka election hai (This is a very crucial election). Even a win by 500 votes would be counted as a victory this time.”

At Jahanpura, a Muslim-dominated village near Kairana, where she later campaigned recalling the work done by her father, a party worker tells the voters, “Is baar karibi mamla hai. Aaplog sath de do didi ka. Babuji ne bahut kaam kiya hain aapke liye (This time it is a close election. Please vote for her. Her father has done a lot of work for you all).”

The Jat factor

There is a visible anger among Jats towards the BJP, particularly over agricultural issues, and clear sympathy for the RLD. “I had voted for Modi last time. But he didn’t do anything for us,” says Omveer Singh, 52, a farmer from Kasampur village in Shamli. “This time we will vote for RLD as it has been our party. It doesn’t matter if the candidate is a Muslim. This vote is for Ajit Singh.”

Jayant Chaudhary gets a warm welcome in every Jat village he visits. At Sonta, village elders donate Rs 11, 000 to the party fund with a promise to vote for the handpump, the RLD’s election symbol. “My grandmother visited your village when she was contesting elections from here in 1980. I am your son and have come to you for support. This is battle for self-respect,” Chaudhary tells the crowd.

Once Chaudhary finishes his speech, some Jat youth of the village urge him to visit the nearby Dalit houses. “They shouldn’t feel left out. Just assure them that we are with them,” says Shubham Jawla, one of the youths.

A worried BJP has been making efforts to address the Jat anger. “There is an anger among Jat voters towards us,” says Shamli BJP MLA Tejendra Nirwal. “They are upset over sugarcane and other issues. But it is between us and we will resolve it among ourselves before voting day.”

The party’s Jat leader, Sanjeev Balyan, has been deputed to campaign in the Jat-dominated areas but has faced resistance from villagers on a number of occasions. “There is no problem at all and we all are together,” he says. “They (Jat voters) are raising some issues and we are resolving them. That should not be seen as they are unhappy with us and will vote for others.”

पढ़ें हिंदी में: उत्तर प्रदेश में जाटों और मुसलमानों की एकता देखकर क्यों उड़ गयी हैं भाजपा की नींद

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