Patna: Asaduddin Owaisi, the chief of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), seems to be giving the jitters to the Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance in Bihar. Sitting in his chamber in the assembly building Monday, the chief minister, in the presence of some journalists, told a few grand alliance MLAs to beware of Owaisi.
“AIMIM is working at the behest of the BJP and is even funded by them. If we do not take counter measures, it can wreck us,” he told them.
Nitish’s concern stems from the performance of AIMIM candidates in last month’s bypolls. While the party did not field its candidate in Mokama, the AIMIM candidate in Gopalganj got over 12,000 votes. Though the BJP candidate won, the victory margin was less than 2,000 votes. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate came second.
In the Kurhani bypoll, the AIMIM got a little over 3,000 votes but contributed to the defeat of Nitish’s Janata Dal United (JDU) at the hands of the BJP by about 3,600 votes.
Gopalganj and Kurhani each have about a 10 per cent Muslim population.
“The Muslims in these two seats voted for the AIMIM with the knowledge that it did not have a chance to win and it would indirectly help the BJP. If this pattern continues, and AIMIM candidates take away 3,000-5,000 votes, it will make a difference in several of the seats where margins of victory are low. It will work to our disadvantage,” a JD(U) minister who did not wish to be named told ThePrint.
The AIMIM is livid over Nitish Kumar’s allegation that it is funded by the BJP. “The charges are being levelled by a man who has spent more than two decades with the BJP and helped establish them in Bihar. He should be a worried man as he has not done anything for the Muslims and even brought Urdu teaching to a standstill,” state AIMIM president Akhtarul Imam to ThePrint.
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Seemanchal & beyond
In the 2020 assembly polls, the AIMIM left its footprint in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal by winning five seats and coming a close second in three others. Four AIMIM MLAs have defected to the RJD since.
Seemanchal, consisting of 25 seats, has a Muslim population of over 35 per cent in almost all the seats. Similar to its performance in Gopalganj and Kurhani, the AIMIM can cause upsets in the over 40 seats outside Seemanchal where Muslims do not have a decisive vote, said the JDU minister quoted earlier.
According to AIMIM chief Imam, his party is expanding its base beyond Seemanchal because it wants to raise its voice “not only for the Muslims but for every deprived section of society”.
He said that there was no difference between the BJP and the “so-called” secular parties. “The RJD and Nitish Kumar have tried to weaken an emerging Muslim force by engineering defections.”
Imam further said that younger generation Muslims were attracted to the AIMIM: “It’s like a bird being freed from a cage.”
Weariness towards Nitish, RJD
Muslim leaders say there is a growing weariness among Muslims towards Nitish Kumar and even the RJD.
“The RJD and JD(U) must realise that they get Muslim votes more out of compulsion than because the latter love the so-called secular parties. Muslims may have respect for Nitish Kumar for not allowing the BJP to play its communal card despite JD(U)’s association with the party. But during the stir against NRC (National Register of Citizens), while Muslims hit the road, they saw that the leaders of these secular parties remained inside their homes,” said former MLA Akhlaq Ahmad.
“They have taken Muslim voters for granted, there is a vacuum of leadership among Muslims which is only growing bigger. Owaisi managed to get inside Bihar because of this vacuum,” he added.
The estimated population of Muslims in Bihar is around 18 per cent. Until the 1980s, they remained with the Congress. But after the Bhagalpur communal riots in 1989, and the Babri Masjid demolition, the Muslim voters shifted to Lalu Prasad Yadav.
However, in the 2005 assembly polls, Muslims voted for the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), then led by Ram Vilas Paswan, in many seats, helping it win 29 seats and also thwarting the possibility of Lalu coming to power.
In the 2010 assembly polls, a section of Muslim votes shifted to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Lalu hit his lowest with the RJD winning just 22 of the 243 assembly seats.
With the rise of the BJP as the most dominant party nationally, the RJD has been able to consolidate its hold on the minority population. It is Owaisi’s foothold in Bihar that seems to be giving the grand alliance nightmares about a split Muslim vote.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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