Why love for Modi in Odisha may not convert into votes for BJP

Lack of BJP’s organisational infrastructure, strong local leadership & state schemes overshadowing central schemes might dent BJP’s chances of winning.

PM Narendra Modi | Narayan/Bloomberg

Bhubaneshwar: Across Odisha — which voted in its final and fourth phase of the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections Monday — there is a growing clamour for Narendra Modi as the prime minister and Naveen Patnaik as the chief minister, especially in urban and semi-urban areas.

But, despite the growing buzz around the BJP that has emerged as the principal opposition party to the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), there are some reasons why even die-hard BJP supporters are wary of predicting the number of seats the party might win in Odisha.

BJP’s ‘weak’ organisational infrastructure

The buzz around Modi might have gained momentum in the state, but the hype has failed to match the party’s organisational infrastructure on the ground.

BJP leaders in Odisha told ThePrint that not only does the party lack “well-heeled election machinery” like the BJD’s, but it also lacks a strong leadership in the state to convert the support for Modi into votes.

“We have traditionally been strong in western Odisha. So, we have some organisational infrastructure there. Otherwise, as of now, we do not have the infrastructure to take on the organisational heft of the BJD. The BJD’s network at the grassroots is very strong,” said a BJP leader, who did not wish to be named.

The leader added that while the BJD’s organisation has penetrated into the ward level, the BJP has only managed to reach upto the panchayat level.

Also, unlike the BJD, which has CM Patnaik as its face, the BJP does not have a strong leadership in the state.

“This does not give much confidence to the voters. The BJP only built its poll narrative around PM Narendra Modi, which is not enough,” said another leader of state BJP unit, requesting anonymity.

With the Congress relegated to the sidelines, the BJP has come to occupy the opposition space in Odisha, said Dr Tapan Pati, a lecturer in Kendrapara Autonomous College. “But, not to the extent of forming the government.”

A senior BJP leader, who holds a position in the state unit, said the problem began after union petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan was given the responsibility to prepare the party’s strategy for the 2019 elections.

“Infighting started between Pradhan’s faction and the old guard who were sidelined by the former. There is a lot of resentment against Pradhan as he is seen as someone who is arrogant and intolerant,” said the senior BJP leader.

The infighting, he added, intensified as elections got closer. “Many of the state unit leaders who had contested in 2014 were either denied ticket or replaced from their old constituencies,” he said.

Among the leaders who left the BJP after falling out with Pradhan and being denied a ticket were Rajkishore Das and Subhas Chouhan, both of whom were from the RSS and among the handful involved in setting up the BJP in Odisha in the early 1990s.

“I was with the BJP from 1992 onwards and worked hard to prepare the base for the BJP. But since the last four years, the new party leadership in the state has been doing things their way. They sidelined us,” Das told ThePrint in Mayurbhanj.

The last nail in the coffin, Das said, was when he was denied ticket to contest from Morada Assembly seat in Mayurbhanj. Das had lost from the seat in 2014.

“After working selflessly for the party for 25 years, I could not take the humiliation and quit. I joined the BJD as there was no other alternative,” Das said.

Central schemes overshadowed by state schemes

In the last five years, though the BJP-led NDA government has been generous to Odisha and showered the state with central funds to implement schemes like Ujjwala, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, among others, they have been overshadowed by the plethora of schemes launched by the state government.

On last count, the BJD government had launched close to 60 schemes in the state for the poor, women, farmers, disabled and the elderly.

“There is hardly any group of people who have been left out of the state-sponsored schemes. People, especially in rural areas, who have benefitted the most from Patnaik government’s schemes, are his most loyal supporters,” said professor R.K. Satapathy of North-Eastern Hill University, who closely tracks Odisha politics and is also part of Lokniti, the research wing of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

Union tribal affairs minister Jual Oram, who is the sitting MP from Sundergarh, however, said the BJP has succeeded in making people aware that majority of the doles given by the BJD dispensation were funded by the central government.

“The state government on its own has just funded a handful of schemes. Naveen Patnaik does not run the administration in Odisha. It’s his close coterie of bureaucrats, who run the show for him. People are now fed up and want change,” Oram, who is seeking re-election from the same seat, told ThePrint.

Triangular contest

A senior BJP leader in the state said wherever there is a triangular fight, the party will have an edge because of division of votes between the BJD and the Congress.

“But a weak Congress, which has been relegated to the sidelines in the state, might end up playing spoilsport,” said the leader.

The BJP has identified 12 Lok Sabha seats where they are expecting a triangular contest — Kalahandi, Bolangir, Sundergarh, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Balasore, Nabrangpur, Koraput, Bhubaneshwar and Kendrapara.

The BJP had won just one seat in Odisha in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and came third with a vote share of 21.88 per cent, up from 16.89 per cent in 2009. The BJD had won 20 seats with a vote share of 44.7 per cent while the Congress did not win any seat but had a vote share of 26.3 per cent.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP had won 10 of the 147 seats while the BJD won 117 seats. The Congress had secured 16 seats.

However, after 2014, BJP’s renewed focus on Odisha saw the party gaining ground in the state. In the 2017 panchayat elections, the BJP had won 300 of the 854 seats, coming second to BJD, which won 650 seats. In the 2012 panchayat elections, the BJP had won just 36 seats.

“There is a strong undercurrent for the BJP. We have it in us to win all the 21 Lok Sabha seats, but let’s wait for the results on May 23 to see,” Oram said.