BSP decision to fly solo in MP, Rajasthan may have immediate fallout for Congress but it’s 2019 — read Uttar Pradesh — that’s at stake here.
New Delhi: The Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) decision Wednesday to go it alone in the forthcoming assembly elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is likely to have a serious bearing on the opposition’s attempt to forge an anti-BJP front in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too.
The BSP’s announcement will impact the Congress party’s electoral prospects in Madhya Pradesh in the immediate context but it could also imperil the incipient alliance of opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh in the next general elections.
Also read: Pressure mounts within Congress for alliance with Mayawati in MP and Maharashtra
A national anti-BJP front was a non-starter, but a state-level grouping of all opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh could pose a huge challenge to the BJP, which secured 71 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Uttar Pradesh is vital to the BJP’s chances of returning to power at the Centre in 2019.
Declaring her party’s decision to go it alone in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Mayawati didn’t speak on her party’s strategy for the Lok Sabha elections but a spurned Congress is unlikely to cede much ground for the BSP in 2019.
A BSP-Samajwadi Party alliance in 2019 could, however, still be a possibility, given that Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has repeatedly hinted his willingness to offer more seats to Mayawati to ensure a joint contest against the BJP. But if the Congress, which won 21 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2009, decides not to join that alliance, it will splinter the opposition votes, much to the advantage of the BJP.
Maya’s moves
Mayawati is said to be eyeing a tally of 40 in the next Lok Sabha to be in the reckoning for the Prime Minister’s post in the event of a fractured verdict. She has, therefore, been disinclined to forgo many seats for the Congress to contest as the grand old party desires. The Congress wants to contest at least 15 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
On Wednesday, the BSP chief said the Congress was becoming “arrogant” and was thinking that it could defeat the BJP on its own. “But the people haven’t forgiven the Congress for its mistakes and corruption,” she said, declaring her party’s decision not to have an alliance in MP and Rajasthan.
Mayawati had already tied up with Ajit Jogi’s Chhattisgarh Janata Congress, undermining the Congress’ prospects in the state. She had also announced 22 candidates for Madhya Pradesh but it was then seen as a ploy to pressurise the Congress.
“Congress leaders like Digvijaya Singh do not want a Congress-BSP alliance. They are scared of ED and CBI,” said Mayawati.
What Congress thinks
Congress sources said the party didn’t want an alliance with the BSP in Rajasthan “anyway”.
“And she wanted 45 of 130 seats in MP. How could we allow her to expand her party at our expense?” a senior Congress functionary told ThePrint.
Also read: Why Mayawati won’t break her alliance with Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh
Congress leaders claimed that people in Madhya Pradesh were “determined” to remove the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government and, therefore, the BSP wouldn’t be able to play spoilsport. And in Rajasthan, they said, the BSP is no force.
Even if one were to accept the Congress leaders’ claims at face value, Mayawati’s move could lead to a fractured opposition in Uttar Pradesh in 2019. And it’s that state that will determine which party or alliance is in power in Delhi for the next five years.
Having said that, even a SP-BSP and Ajit Singh-led RLD alliance could be a formidable challenger to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. But, given Mayawati’s unpredictability, as displayed again on Wednesday, the anti-BJP camp will be keeping their fingers crossed.
It is difficult to say if the Congress was trying to bulldoze its way by acting high-handed just because it is an older and national party, or if Mayawati was trying to be too ambitious by asking for a more than realistic share of seats sensing the desire or desperation of the other side to defeat the BJP. (One would like to point out to the Congress that it sure is a national party in terms of cadre and infrastructure, but at least for now it has lost its national following. So a bit of humility won’t do it any harm. Behan Mayawati can be reminded of the rustic wisdom that one shouldn’t try to stretch a rubber band too much, or it’ll snap! )
Whatever the reasons for the present failure of talks, the Congress should pay heed to her specific mention of Digvijay Singh in a negative sense. Has he slipped into a “Raja-mindset” without realizing it, because he indeed was a Royal at one time? Another reason for suspicion is the way he handled, or botched, the Goa case. (I don’t remember the full details, but he kept waiting for someone to ‘make the first move’ and the BJP grabbed a half-chance and staked the claim. The Congress was left high and dry despite being the largest party.)
In any case, the state elections will have A BENEFICIAL EFFECT on opposition unity for the 2019 elections. Whoever of the two, the Congress or Behan Mayawati is being arrogant and overconfident now will have sobered down by the results, and will bargain more maturely for the grand finale.
No one should be keeping their fingers crossed. Behenji has been made an offer she could not refuse. I don’t see her joining hands with the SP in UP next year. Her votes in MP and Chhatisgarh will once again be wasted, to the benefit of the incumbents. Vital in states where the difference in vote share between winner and loser is small. What has been promised to her is not immediately apparent. However, there is zero prospect of her becoming PM, and she is intelligent enough to understand that.