The Congress, whose president Rahul Gandhi has already shown interest in the top job, plans to wait for assembly elections before taking any call.
New Delhi: The Congress has decided to adopt a wait-and-watch policy as prime ministerial aspirants in the opposition camp start tossing their hats in the ring.
West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee made her intentions clear last week by announcing her plan to hold a rally of the ‘Federal Front’ in Kolkata on 19 January next year. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati is not as vocal about her ambitions but is silently preparing the ground to garner enough number of seats to be in the reckoning in the prime ministerial sweepstakes in 2019 in the event of a change of guard at the Centre.
“Both Mamata and Mayawati want to be second to the Congress in terms of their numerical strength in the Lok Sabha in 2019. Both seem to be looking at a figure of around 40 MPs. They see a chance if the Congress secures 120-130 MPs,” said a senior opposition leader with a long experience in dealing with the two women leaders.
“But what if the Congress crosses 150-mark? That will change the entire scenario. We will cross the bridge when we come to it,” he told ThePrint.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi has already shown his interest in the top job and his party colleagues have declared that the “tail can’t wag the dog” — suggesting that smaller parties can’t dictate terms to the grand old party. The principal opposition party has, however, chosen to skirt queries about Banerjee’s or Mayawati’s projection as contenders for the prime minister’s post if there is a vacancy in 2019.
Alliance compulsions
The BSP chief removed party vice-president Jai Prakash Singh last week for calling Gandhi unfit for the coveted post because of his mother Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin. A Congress strategist said she may be keeping the Congress in good humour but is playing hard ball in alliance talks.
“She wants to finalise seat-sharing arrangements for state assemblies and the Lok Sabha together,” he said.
In a move that is seen by the Congress as a pressure tactic, Mayawati issued a statement Monday, saying her party will contest all seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh “if not offered a respectable number of seats”. If the Samajwadi Party and the BSP are ready to accommodate the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, “same conditions” should apply elsewhere, she said in her statement.
As it is, the Congress is desperate to have an alliance with the BSP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — where it has been out of power since 2003 — but is not very keen on sharing seats in Rajasthan. Aware of the Congress compulsions, she has raised the stake and wants to negotiate Lok Sabha seats in those states, too.
Federal Front
Mamata Banerjee is relatively louder about her prime ministerial ambitions. She declared last week that she will organise a rally of the ‘Federal Front’ in Kolkata on 19 January next year to “boot the BJP out of power” in 2019.
“Start working for the Brigade (Parade) Ground rally from November. Leaders of the Federal front will come down to Kolkata on 19 January for Bengal to lead the country,” media reports quoted her as saying in Kolkata last week.
There are also reports about her plan to visit New Delhi to personally invite the so-called federal front leaders, including former Congress president Sonia Gandhi, to the 19 January rally. She is also likely to deliver a lecture at St. Stephen’s College in the national capital. Months before his formal projection as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi had addressed students of the Sri Ram College of Commerce in the national capital in February 2013. Banerjee will also start a ‘BJP Hatao, Desh Bachao’ campaign from 15 August.
‘Wait and see’
A section of Congress leaders believe that Banerjee’s invitation to Sonia Gandhi to the Federal Front rally could put the party in a tight spot as participation in it would be tantamount to accepting her leadership of the anti-BJP front. A senior leader, however, countered it, saying, “Since there will be state-specific alliances, the federal front is just notional.”
The Congress is not inclined to upset Banerjee either. Desperate to dislodge the BJP from power at the Centre, the grand old party doesn’t want to alienate prospective allies, especially someone like Banerjee who is trying to play a lead role in bringing anti-BJP parties together. Despite reservations of a large section of West Bengal Congress leaders against an alliance with the Trinamool Congress in the state, the Congress party’s central leadership is open to it.
“There is no denying the fact that we have suffered the most under Mamata Banerjee government and we are actively doing what an opposition party should do,” said Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, the West Bengal Congress president and party MP.
“We have conveyed our message to the high command. Whatever they decide, we will work on their direction.” There has been an exodus of Congress leaders to the TMC in the past two years. Even at Banerjee’s 21 July rally, four Congress MLAs joined the TMC in Kolkata.
Yet, the Congress’ dalliance with Banerjee continues, notwithstanding her moves to project a non-Congress PM candidate in 2019. “You are jumping the gun. There is a long time to go. We also have assembly elections in four states. Wait and see how things unfold in the next few months,” said a senior All India Congress Committee office-bearer.
That would be the smart thing to do. Not to upset the mercurial ladies when the birds are still in the bush, not on the dining table. Forty each is a stretch; thirty five in Bengal, thirty in UP is closer to reality. That would still be way behind the Congress, even at its lower band of 125. How well the Congress does in R / M / C will make the picture more clear. 150 is possible. It will do well in Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, perhaps Delhi. 2. In a coalition arrangement, other regional parties would feel more comfortable dealing with the Congress. The DMK will be a major presence – why should it accept Ms Banerjee as PM ? There will be intense bargaining for what Shri Shekhar Gupta calls the ATM ministries; it is here that the Congress will have to be magnanimous. However, it should not allow coalition partners to go berserk, as happened during the UPA.