New Delhi: The fresh farmers protest can upset the BJP’s poll calculations not just in Punjab and Haryana, where the agitation has originated, but also in Uttar Pradesh, where farmer leaders are weighing their options on joining the stir.
While the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), a former ally and prospective partner for the BJP in Punjab, is already feeling the pinch of the agitation, jitters are also afoot in the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), with which the party is in alliance talks in UP, and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), its Haryana ally.
Both the RLD and the JJP have a key vote bank in the Jat farmers of their respective states.
Farmers from Haryana and Punjab set off Tuesday for a renewed ‘Delhi Chalo’ march, reiterating their demand for a legal guarantee for minimum support price and pension for farmers, among others.
However, they were stopped at the Haryana border. In their bid to stop the farmers, security personnel used teargas shells, placed beds of nails and barbed wire on the road, giving the Opposition ammunition to target the BJP — in power in Haryana — ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
The farmers’ march comes days after the Modi government announced Bharat Ratna for former PM Chaudhary Charan Singh, the grandfather of RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary and a prominent farmer leader, as well as agricultural scientist M.S. Swaminathan.
The Bharat Ratnas as well as alliance efforts with the RLD are seen as the BJP’s outreach to farmers after they led a year-long agitation (2020-21) against three farm laws brought by the Modi government that have since been repealed.
RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary has not reacted to the latest protest so far, but several party leaders said the sudden developments are building pressure “to find a solution”. During election time, they added, any bad optics can be detrimental as the Samajwadi Party (SP) “can take advantage” of the situation.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has expressed his support for the farmers’ protest, and questioned the treatment being meted out to the protesters.
“What kind of government is this that puts barbed wire in the path of farmers,” he said. “What kind of respect is it to farmers’ well-wishers Chaudhary Charan Singh ji and Swaminathan ji that the BJP government is laying nails to impede the farmers’ movement. The truth is that the BJP government is hiding its shortcomings.”
Speaking to ThePrint, RLD general secretary and former MP Munshi Ram said they “are a party of farmers and the party will stand with farmers’ demands”.
“We can’t be mute spectators. In 2021, we were against the government, to pressure the government to fulfil the demands of farmers. This time we are with the government, but we will ask the government to find a solution to the problem as early as possible.”
Another RLD functionary added that it was “true that we supported the 2020 farm agitation and it was due to our support that the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) and other farmer organisations led protests at the Ghazipur border to pressure the government to recall the three farm laws”.
“Today, after aligning with the BJP, our responsibility has increased to transfer Jat votes to the BJP in alliance. We have our hold on Jat voters, but we have to be more careful as the party won’t take the risk of not aligning with farmers if the agitation reaches the Delhi border.”
Chaudhary’s party wields considerable support among Jat voters in western Uttar Pradesh. The BJP lost eight of the region’s 27 seats in 2019 as the SP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the RLD joined hands and consolidated the Jat-Muslim vote.
In Punjab, the SAD, which broke away from the NDA over the farm laws, Tuesday demanded early fulfilment of commitments made to farmers. With the Congress and the AAP backing the farmers’ protest in Punjab, any intensification of the agitation may stall a potential reunion between the SAD and the BJP.
In Haryana, the Khattar government, which is trying to stop the farmers from proceeding towards Delhi, has been attacked by the AAP for “turning the border into Pakistan”.
While there is no confirmation on whether the BJP and the JJP will continue their alliance in the state polls this year, the latter was crucial to helping the BJP form its government in 2019, when it fell short of a majority.
While Haryana Deputy CM and JJP chief Dushyant Chautala did not break away from the BJP during the previous protest, the Congress, led by former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and the AAP used the opportunity to try and consolidate their Jat support base.
Speaking to ThePrint, JJP spokesperson Deep Kamal said they are “waiting to see how the protest unfolds”.
“It’s not the JJP, but the Centre has to address the situation. The Haryana government has taken several steps to address farmers’ problems in the state.”
Farmer unions weigh their options
The action against the farmers participating in the fresh protest is believed to be putting pressure on counterparts in western UP to support the agitation as the demands being raised are similar to those made earlier.
The Tikait-led faction of the BKU, which led the previous farmers’ protest as part of the original Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) — the current one is being led by the SKU-non-political and a group called the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha — has not yet decided on supporting the agitation.
However, the group has called a ‘Grameen Bharat Bandh’ on 16 February to push for the same demands. BKU national spokesperson Rakesh Tikait has also called a meeting on 17 February to deliberate on the protest, and the government’s action against the protesters.
Tikait told ThePrint that “they would join the agitation if the farmers are ill treated”.
“Our demands are the same and we have given a call for a Bharat bandh. Let’s see how the government responds to the demands of farmers’ unions,” he added.
Two splinter groups of the BKU — BKU-Arajnaitik and BKU-Mahatma — have already announced support for the Punjab farm organisations.
Dharmpal Mallik of the BKU-Arajnaitik told ThePrint that they “have supported the agitation as western UP farmers have similar concern as farmers from other areas”.
“The promised price for sugarcane is not given, and it’s lower in UP than in Haryana,” he added. “Farming is becoming unsustainable day by day, and the government needs to address the concerns. Tikait will have to join the protest sooner or later.”
Explaining why other farm unions have not joined the protest yet, an SKM member said, “Firstly, Punjab farmer unions did not hold deliberations with counterparts in other states before marching to Delhi. They probably think that other leaders will hijack the agitation, like Rakesh Tikait became the face of the agitation in 2021.
“Another reason is that other organisations are waiting for them to cross the Haryana and Delhi border. If they reach the Delhi border, UP farmers’ organisations will have to support them anyway.”
(Edited by Sunanda Ranjan)
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