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BJP likely to win over 300 seats in 2019, shows party’s own survey

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The BJP survey results run contrary to common perception about growing dissatisfaction among people over rising fuel prices, job loss and farm distress.

New Delhi: The BJP is likely to win more than 300 seats and the party-led alliance, the NDA, more than 360 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, an internal survey of the ruling party has predicted.

The survey, said a senior government functionary, suggested that the NDA will get 51 per cent of the total votes in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, about 12 per cent more than what it got in 2014.

The mood of the nation is upbeat, thanks to the government’s welfare measures that have “benefited” 90 per cent of the villages, he claimed.

In the 2014 polls, the NDA had won 336 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats with the BJP alone winning 282 seats.

Also read: From Purulia stage, Shah throws Mamata a challenge, says BJP will win 22 seats next year

Although the government functionary did not share any further details of the purported internal survey, the results ran contrary to the common perception about growing dissatisfaction among the people over rising prices of petroleum products, unemployment, farm distress, among others.

Surveys commissioned by different publications at different points of time this year also didn’t indicate any uptick in the ruling party’s electoral prospects in the next general elections.

In May, an ABP News-CSDS ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey predicted that if elections were held at that time, the NDA would get 274 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress-led UPA would secure 164 seats. The survey, however, also found that 47 per cent of the people were not in favour of a second term for Narendra Modi headed NDA government.

India Today-Karvy Insight’s Mood of the Nation July 2018 poll suggested 281 seats for the NDA and 122 for the UPA, if Lok Sabha elections were held that month.

Individually, the BJP’s tally would, however, drop to 245 seats — from 282 seats in 2014—and the Congress’ would go up to 83 seats, almost double its 2014 tally.

These surveys suggested a dip in the BJP’s tally, but the saffron party’s own survey seems to suggest otherwise.

At the BJP national executive meeting last weekend, the party had skipped any discussion on the opposition’s aggressive stand on oil prices, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi asking the delegates not to get trapped in the opposition’s issues. He asked them not to respond to them and focus on the government’s achievements instead.

Opposition parties have been raising the issues of oil prices, joblessness, the alleged Rafale scam, the falling rupee, and the failure of demonetisation and its adverse impact on the economy, among others.

The ruling party skirted these issues at the meeting of its top decision-making body last weekend.

The internal survey results might have given the ruling dispensation the confidence to continue blowing its own trumpet, hoping that it would drown all dissenting voices from the opposition camp.

For the record, the BJP has maintained that it will be able to explain to the people the rationale for rising oil prices. Fielding questions on this issue at the party headquarters Wednesday, union minister Piyush Goyal said there is no need for knee-jerk reactions as the economy is doing very well.

Also read: Here’s why the BJP is obsessed with Rahul Gandhi, even though he poses no threat to Modi


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  1. They are perfectly right. The moment Modi explains to people as to why it became necessary to put extra tax on oil, people will understand the extent of looting Sonia & the gang had done by way of scams like 2G,Coal, ISRO & so on apart from robbing banks indiscriminately. They will also realize that corruption isn’t a news item or a material for TV debate & it can impact their day to day lives miserably. Anger on Sonia & MMS & PC will multiply for having caused havoc in their lives & the result will be they will be driven out & into jail eventually.

  2. Quite posssible. Where is the person for opposition would be PM? And when the Maaaaha ghatbandhan will form. Just before elections. Who will beleive in them. Finally will anybody accept Rahul baba as PM. So opposition and RG are the main Plus points for BJP.

  3. The party will win 576 out of 575 seats, giving it a 101% majority, internal survey shows. The PM himself will win 100% of the votes cast in his constituency, which itself will be 99% of the electorate. And India will grow at 25%, the GDP will explode, debt will go down to 1%, the rupee will trade at parity with the dollar and a cure to AIDS & cancer will be found in his next term.

  4. Survey bhi apna results bhi apni icha mutabik, andha bantey rewari. Jb aise khud hi survey honey lagain apni jeet batane lagein to samjho mamla gadbad hai???

  5. Poor fellows with 31% vote share they got last time they won quite a bit of seats as the opposition was fragmented. Its not the case now. Their vote share will be around 25% or less and so let them be in dreamland.

  6. Some place the figure at 175, with a downward bias if economic headwinds stiffen. Difficult to spot states where accretion is possible, even as substantial losses are expected where it had maxed out. Allies will make their presence felt.

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