Deoband: The importance of the huge mahagathbandhan rally in Deoband in Muzaffarnagar Sunday afternoon is not limited to the fact that this is the first time in western Uttar Pradesh — or indeed, in any part of the state — that three big regional leaders have come together to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi on an anti-Modi platform.
The fact that BSP leader Mayawati, RLD chief Ajit Singh and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav have understood the old adage, “united we stand, divided we fall”, confirms the significance of the move.
In 2014, each of them fell by the wayside in the face of the unrelenting Modi wave. This time around, they are seeking to breach the psychological divide that cuts across widely diverse Hindu communities such as the Jats, Dalits and Yadavs, as well as heal the chasm between Hindus and Muslims that first sent them apart in the 2013 riots in and around Muzaffarnagar.
In this afternoon’s rally, Muslim men sat cheek-by-jowl with Hindu men with last names such as Balyan (of the same caste as Sanjeev Balyan, sitting MP from Muzaffarnagar and an accused in the 2013 Jat-Muslim riots in the area) and Valmiki Dalits.
Some came from as far away as Baghpat, which is about 40 km away. A few intelligence bureau men in safari suits admitted that this was a “huge rally”, and that as many as 80,000 to a lakh people attended. The state administration was stopping buses 10 km away and people were walking to the venue.
Rajiv Kumar Balyan of Kutba, one of the riot-affected villages in 2013, told ThePrint that Sanjeev Balyan had come again to ask for his vote. “I had voted for him last time around. But this time I refused,” Rajiv said. “He has done no work at all.”
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The sugarcane dues
No work here translates into the Yogi Adityanath’s government’s failure to pay dues to sugarcane farmers. Last year’s dues have recently been paid but the current season is pending, despite the UP chief minister’s announcement on 3 April.
If Yogi had paid up those dues on the eve of this huge rally, the enthusiasm of farmers would certainly have been mitigated. But the silence from Lucknow is resounding.
Later, on the road to Shamli in Kairana constituency, sitting on top of a tractor loaded with sugarcane, Ashok Pal conceded that the lack of payment had brought his household to a standstill.
“School fees have not been paid, we will soon be on the verge of starvation,” Pal says, adding, “but I will still vote for the BJP because Modi has done a lot for us.”
Pal turns out to be from the Most Backward Gaderiya caste. If the MBCs are shifting to the BJP, then the direct fight with the mahagathbandhan candidate Tabassum Begum and the BJP in Kairana becomes even more significant.
Congress the target as much as BJP
At the rally itself in Deoband, there was much excitement in the air, as if power was finally within reach. All the leaders on stage didn’t hesitate to criticise the Congress.
“The Congress has failed, despite ruling for so many years,” BSP chief Mayawati said. “In the Congress-ruled states, wrongful practices came to notice…so they eventually lost their voter base”
She also attacked the Congress’ NYAY scheme. “Indira Gandhi too made a 20-point programme to remove poverty. Was it effective?” she asked the gathering.
But the choicest words were reserved for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, according to Mayawati, had betrayed the nation by destroying the economy through demonetisation, by refusing to pay farmers a fair wage for their sugarcane and by failing to prevent attacks like those in Pulwama.
“If the prime minister (Narendra Modi) was serious about welfare of poor, they would not have been inaugurating schemes after polls were announced… they would have performed during their five years,” Mayawati said. “In the last budget… whatever announcements were made by the government were nothing but empty poll promises.
“Removing Modi is not enough, (UP CM) Yogi (Adityanath) also needs to be shown the door,” she added.
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The poll arithmetic
A question the rally threw up is whether the Muslims will break ranks and vote everywhere in favour of the mahagathbandhan candidate? Imran Masood, the Congress candidate in Saharanpur, is said to be very popular but he is bound to cut into the vote of the “alliance” candidate.
But it’s not as if the BJP is giving up without a fight in western UP. Modi remains hugely popular, even if sitting BJP MPs aren’t. Across the region, upper castes are voting for the PM who, they believe, “has done a lot of work and deserves another five years”.
The question is if the arithmetic adds up.
According to the leaders on stage in Deoband this afternoon, it does. Mayawati expressly asked her audience to transfer their votes to the Samajwadi and RLD candidates, as did the others.
A fight to the finish is on the cards. Each of these three leaders knows that. So does prime minister Modi. The lack of a discernible “wave” in favour of one or another means that every village, kasba and town in every constituency in western Uttar Pradesh has become an exciting contest.
Coming only four days before the first phase goes to the polls on 11 April, the rally in Deoband this afternoon could well become a turning point.
With PTI inputs.
Yogiji’s name will be on the ballot as well. Appointing him was a huge gamble. If he had risen to the challenge and the opportunity, with 325 seats in a house of 403, he could have immediately improved law and order, brought a development orientation to the administration. This election comes almost halfway through his term. So this is also very much a referendum on him.
Anything from forty to fifty seats.