Narendra Modi, seen as merely a strongman by his critics, is actually quite adept at changing his image. Modi went from being an extremist Hindutva figure to a man known for development. He evolved from a parochial Gujarati leader to a pan-India mass leader. Now he’s going through another image change. He’s being nice to regional parties and allies, signalling that the Modi of 2019 will not be the same as the Modi of 2014.
In early 2014, the BJP was running a campaign called ‘Mission 272+’. The idea was that the BJP wanted to win at least 272 seats for itself. This was an open declaration that it sought to give up its dependence on allies. Modi did not arrogantly break up the NDA after the election. He knew he’d need it for future elections.
What we are seeing these days is Mission 272 Minus. The BJP is going around appeasing regional allies, conceding space and seats to them, as an acknowledgement that it may not be able to win 272 seats this time. That’s an act of humility from a party that was anything but humble in its attitude towards regional parties for much of the last five years.
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One-party state
Anyone would prefer a less unilateral PM, even from the BJP. That’s where someone like Nitin Gadkari sees hope. After all, he’s been friendly with every political party, big and small, opposition and ally.
Modi’s image has been that of the lone ranger who likes to have his way, without having to bother with the niceties of consensus building. He didn’t even wait for the Reserve Bank of India’s approval before announcing demonetisation!
‘Modi can’t lead a coalition,’ many critics have felt for long. Why would any regional party want to be in the Modi cabinet when Modi’s ministers are the weakest Union ministers in a long time? Be it the PDP or the Shiv Sena, everyone has seen how poorly the allies have been treated by Modi and Amit Shah.
Their ambition to make India a one-party state has been no secret (remember Amit Shah’s ‘Vistar Yatras’).
At one point, PM Modi even went about trying to drum up support for the scary idea of ‘One Nation One Election’. He wanted all state elections to be held with the general elections so that the BJP could over-ride the local factors and win all states in one go. Modi could then rule as the king.
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2018: the year that changed Modi
After the Gujarat assembly election in December 2017, it was clear that brand Modi was on a bit of a decline. People would still speak well of Modi but his economic mismanagement was hurting them enough to give the BJP a hard time at the polling booth. After the BJP’s inability to sweep Karnataka in May 2018, it was clear that the Modi wave was waning.
The prospect of shedding substantial seats in Uttar Pradesh, thanks to the SP-BSP alliance, only added to the BJP’s woes. It had anyway peaked in the Hindi heartland in 2014.
Making concessions in every state
In July 2018, Amit Shah said in Tamil Nadu, “We will give respect to our existing allies and bring in new friends before the Lok Sabha elections and give the nation a clean government.”
In October, Amit Shah announced the BJP was going to be an equal partner with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in Bihar. The BJP had won 22 of the state’s 40 seats, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had won 31 of the 40 seats without Nitish Kumar in 2014. By giving Nitish Kumar the status of an equal ally, contesting 17 seats each and thereby giving up five seats, the BJP sent out a huge message. It was willing to walk the talk on respecting regional allies.
Similarly, Amit Shah salvaged the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra. The BJP will contest 25 and the Shiv Sena 23 seats. They have also already decided they will contest an equal number of seats in the assembly elections later this year.
Old friends are always welcome, said Narendra Modi in Tamil Nadu recently. He could have meant the DMK too! Stitching an alliance with the AIADMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu has been a part of the BJP’s effort to show that it can work up a coalition and lead it, with parties from every corner of India. Even in Jharkhand, it gave up its claim on one seat to ally with the All Jharkhand Students Union.
The BJP is also almost done with appeasing its small partners in Uttar Pradesh. It has neutralised the TRS in Telangana and the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh.
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The Congress high horse
Given the alacrity with which the BJP has sealed its alliances, it is now the Congress, which appears unable to do coalition politics. It hasn’t been able to finalise its seat-sharing agreement with many of its key allies. It has been humiliatingly edged out of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in Uttar Pradesh, and just given Amethi and Rae Bareli.
The difference between the BJP and the Congress here is that the BJP has been willing to climb down, accept the changed realities, respond to the state election results and ground surveys. It is not trying to bite more than it can chew. It is ready to eat the humble pie when it needs to. That’s a side of Modi-Shah we are not used to.
The Congress, down and out, is refusing to give up its arrogance. Rahul Gandhi won’t go to a Mamata rally, can’t find middle ground with a desperate Aam Aadmi Party, won’t take Akhilesh Yadav’s calls. The index of NDA unity is already higher than the index of opposition unity.
Modi is successfully changing his image, becoming Vajpayee-esque in managing coalition allies, but the Congress is regressing and being difficult when it has a far greater need to be accommodating.
The real test will come when – assuming – the NDA coalition comes to power a second time. Will the structures of centralisation of power be dismantled, will ministers and ministries reclaim their legitimate space and autonomy, will state governments controlled by opposition parties – AAP in Delhi – be allowed to breathe free in a spirit of cooperative federalism. It is one thing to stoop to conquer. That everyone – barring the Congress President – does. 2. The more important question – which is where PM ABV comes in, since this column mentions him as a role model – is whether there is a genuine conviction that India is a diverse country, requiring a catholicity of spirit to govern well, Vajpayeeji came to Delhi and Parliament as a young man, left his native Bhopal and provincialism behind. He must have observed a young Republic form before his eyes, heard strange languages in the Central Hall, different styles of dress and diet. Even with 272 of his own sheep in the flock, he would have ruled by consensus. Some allies may have tried his patience, as did his ideological parent. However, there was space in his heart for the largeness of India. A very rare gem in India’s public life.
The climb down is to climb up. Like Britishers BJP would first make a foothold and then slowly finish smaller parties. Congress with all its limitations have no RSS workers to spread BJP.