Some people think that the protesters in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh should pack up and go home, while others think that the demonstrators should relocate so that they don’t cause road closure that is affecting traffic. These concerns have arisen because the BJP has decided to fight the Delhi assembly election not against the Aam Aadmi Party but against the people of Shaheen Bagh.
Shaheen Bagh is, thus, blamed for ‘polarising’ the Delhi election and some fear that this is only ‘helping’ the BJP. The party has helpfully leaked an “internal survey” that says it is likely to win 30-35 seats in Delhi thanks to the Shaheen Bagh traffic issue.
That is a laughable claim because the Shaheen Bagh traffic issue affects only a small number of people as compared to the size and spread of Delhi. And many of these affected people have their votes in Uttar Pradesh. Besides, such people are likely too happy with the free electricity to complain about a little traffic diversion.
If you ask the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) about its internal surveys, the party says it will win all 70 seats. This claim sounds equally ridiculous. But it is telling that even in its bragging, the BJP only claims it might just reach the majority mark whereas the AAP is confident that it will not lose a single seat.
Before we start patronising Shaheen Bagh protesters and placing on them the burden of deciding an election, we need to understand why the BJP is making Shaheen Bagh a central issue, why its Delhi campaign is increasingly looking like Hindutva-over-development, and why Home Minister Amit Shah has become the face of this campaign over Prime Minister Narendra Modi or BJP MP Manoj Tiwari.
The answer to all of the above is that the BJP is doing so badly in Delhi that it risks losing even some of its core voters to the AAP. If that were to happen, then it would be extremely embarrassing for the party.
So, the BJP versus Shaheen Bagh trope is not going to make the BJP win Delhi. The Shaheen Bagh protesters need not worry. They may keep calm.
Shaheen Bagh is not affecting the outcome of the Delhi assembly election in either direction. If anything, the BJP’s attack on Shaheen Bagh and its upping of the Hindutva narrative will only help Muslims not waste their votes on the Congress.
Also read: The people’s occupation of Shaheen Bagh speaks truth to power
When all tricks fail
That the AAP is going to win the Delhi assembly election has been a forgone conclusion for some time now. The joke is that the BJP’s election slogan in Delhi is “Abki baar, teen paar” (this time, we shall cross three seats).
The question is about seats and vote share. If the BJP again wins single-digit seats in the 70-member assembly, it will be quite a humiliation. You could say the 2015 Delhi election was bad luck, but for a single-digit result to be repeated in consecutive election will reflect very poorly on Amit Shah. He has had five years to apply his Chanakyan strategies to Delhi’s state-level politics.
It’s all about the executive face. In the last two Lok Sabha elections, people voted for Narendra Modi. In Delhi’s 2020 Vidhan Sabha election, the best face available before the voters is Arvind Kejriwal. The AAP has been taunting the BJP by playing on its own unofficial slogans for 2019: Aur hai kaun? (Who else is there?) Kejriwal versus who? Who is the BJP’s CM candidate? We know by now that the executive face is the biggest game changer in assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP in Delhi is failing the game, but not for the want of trying. In theory, the idea of giving a Brahmin-Baniya-Punjabi party a Purvanchali face is excellent, that too a Bhojpuri film star who is already well-known. So, no one will ask: Who is Manoj Tiwari?
Alas, familiarity is only the first step to build an executive face. The face also has to look like s/he is capable of running a government. And Manoj Tiwari doesn’t sound like he could govern a mohalla. Making Amit Shah the face of this BJP campaign serves many purposes. Apart from Hindutva positioning, it also helps people forget the failure Manoj Tiwari has been.
Also read: Delhi’s migrant voters from south prefer AAP but UP & Bihar could decide election outcome
‘Modi for PM, Arvind for CM’
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won all seven seats in Delhi with over 56 per cent vote share. That’s a massive public endorsement for a multi-party election. But the AAP cannot win Delhi without taking away at least some of these people who voted for Modi just a few months ago. This is why Arvind Kejriwal won’t directly attack Modi or make a trip to Shaheen Bagh. The AAP convener needs people who voted for Modi in May 2019 to vote for him in February 2020.
And it looks like Kejriwal is succeeding in that mission. If you have a quick chat with people in Delhi, you will realise that even people who say they vote for the BJP think that their party is losing this election. When voters think their party is losing, it is a sign of a sweep for the other side.
As a result, the BJP’s own core supporters, workers, volunteers and voters have been disillusioned in this Delhi election. A few interviews by Manoj Tiwari are doing to the BJP in this election what one interview by Kiran Bedi did in 2015.
Narendra Modi and Amit Shah were banking on a magic wand to change things around for them in this election: ‘regularising’ (meaning: legalising) unauthorised colonies, which BJP leaders say will benefit 40 lakh people. But this failed to be the Brahmastra that it was supposed to be because it will mean that people who were living in small houses will continue to live in small houses.
People are more moved by free or cheap electricity, the improved sewage lines and the free and regular water supply that the Kejriwal government has ensured for them. The AAP’s efforts in the field of education and healthcare have given it an image of a party that cares for people whereas the BJP since 23 May 2019 has been busy with controversial ideological issues that don’t improve the daily lives of even Hindu voters in any way.
The state of the Indian economy and the poor performance of the BJP-held three municipal corporations in Delhi, the Modi government’s inability to reduce pollution or decongest Delhi roads are also poor advertisements at this point for the BJP in the national capital.
Also read: Shaheen Bagh not just a local protest, it’s India’s Tahrir, Taksim Square: Umar Khalid
Tables have turned
In the 2015 Delhi assembly election, the BJP claimed to represent vikas (development) and called the AAP ‘anarchist’. But the Amit Shah-run Delhi Police is now looking the other way as pro-BJP goons take to beating up students, ransacking libraries and firing openly on Delhi streets.
The tables have turned: this Delhi election, the BJP is offering anarchy, the AAP is offering vikas. This inversion is helping the AAP attract voters from all ideological folds.
Views are personal.
Very biased article . AAP may still win but with reduced seats and may just get majority . But one thing is sure , lots of money is directed against Central government to ensure that ground is created for BJP to lose Rajiya Saba control at least for now and yes that can happen. But right after June 2024 , you will see BJP again in center . That is because Indian democracy is maturing and it infact has matured. This is what we saw in 2019 as well right after losing MP , Chattisgarh and Rajasthan
The corrupt journalist who got paid by the AAP to write the article will eat crow when the the AAP loses in a humiliating fashion on February 11th.
how much do u people get as coolie per month? looks like ur stupid analysis has no bounds. Its not just the people that get directly affected by the inconvenience, but the fact is that these people that get affected, could create an impression on the whole of delhi, and with social media and newspapers, every voter could be easily influenced and impacted. get ur head checked in a mental hospital. i wish modi becomes a dictator and hangs traitors like u in public
Paid media surely got 1-2 lacs for this bias article shame on you paid media…BJP will get 40-43 seats Delhi don’t want to repeat Joker again. Thanks.
Yup, you are right they will NDTV,quint, print etc are Anti BJP & anti Hindu.
On the other hand, republic, times now and zee news are supportive to BJP.
Even if they are supportive to BJP at Least they don’t vilify Hindus and only shows positives.
BJP will suffer, but Congress even more.
You are clearly underestimating the power of communalism. Development politics is always less exciting than communal and caste politics.
Bjp and its fountainhead rss must be rooted out of delhi and also india.
This is completely incorrect, AAP in 5 Years has done 1 or 2 Schools improvements by painting the buildings, AAP has political party made great promises about water, basic infrastructure road and reducing pollution in Air, none of that happened, if people think roads across Delhi is good, then answer is no, and government hospital are not good, no minister for their treatment go to government hospital, why I think people of India know the answer. Now if I tell complete Muslim people living in Delhi gives vote to one party ofcurse they will win the election and form the government and again do nothing for people until next 5 years, same with Kajriwal nothing only promises and Shaheen Bhag is a threat to Indian democracy and Indian people. As Indian we have ethics, we cannot sacrifice because of this protest.
Shaheen Bhag Protests for what? Protest for CAA, Protest for Economy/jobs (85 year old needs job now), Protest for Jina wali azadi(create another pakistan, by dividing Assam from India), CAA is protest for Kashmir, Protest for save democracy, protest for Muslim Shariya, protest for theen talak, protest for making India islamic state, protest for completely destroying Hindutwa and putting it in graveyard (so message is make india a islamic land), Protest for scolding Indian Army(who die for their country) and comparing it with Rapist/terrorist Pakistan Army, Protest for a bill NRC which didnt even come, Shaheen bhag protest is to give employment to 80 years and uneducated Muslim people, Shaheen bhag protest is against India Court and stand against any decision made by Supermen Shaheen Bhag protest is to Scold all Hindu People, and scold our gods, and Shaheen bhag is protest against Hindu and against for NRC is not bringing their brothers Muslim Pakistani terrorist in India, I can keep going about this protest, finally BJP stand for Country and welfare for people
Thanku…well described..
You are dumb or what … 2 or 3 schools the whole government school infrastructure have been improved first time government school students has higher score than private ones, Kerala is learning from Delhi what else you need blind bhakthards.
Delhi government schools ‘leave out’ 66% of failed kids
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67781786.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Your fake report of 66% has already been exposed by the wire and other fact checkers.
Formula is very simple – Do nothing for 4.5 years ..Then last 3 months give all freebies and all donkeys will come out with saliva falling from their mouth .. Jal Board Electricity Board is bankrupt soon Delhi will go out of power and water ..And Public Buses will be pulled out by the same donkeys who have their saliva out for freebies now..hahahaah
You look fascist. Fascism didn’t work in 2015 and definitely not in 2020.
Bang on mark!
Lol it was fine till this shaheen bagh drama was not there. It seems Mr Vij lives in his own world.
Lol it was fine till this shaheen bagh drama was not there.
That is where people fail to understand Modi-Shah’s style of politics.
1. They know they will lose Delhi, but they want to replace congress as the challenger in every state.
2. BJP wants to keep a habit of fighting.