The Lok Sabha elections in the months of April and May will not only determine the near future of India, but also make it clear who will be eclipsed on the political horizon and who will be the new generation of leaders — both dynasts and non-dynasts.
Young politicians without any political legacy have joined the electoral fray, such as Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel and Kanhaiya Kumar. Even actor Urmila Matondkar has come on board with the Congress.
A new ‘Gen Next’
Although in Indian politics, the term ‘Gen Next’ is often associated with a family passing their baton to the younger kith and kin, another kind of Gen Next is now changing our political landscape.
The Congress welcoming Hardik Patel into the party, adjusting with Jignesh Mevani and taking in Urmila Matondkar are signs that the party is practicing a non-dynastic approach to politics. There are many more such examples in the states.
A few mass leaders in the farmers’ movement, tribal leaders in Chhattisgarh, as well as many activists from the environment movement have chosen to bring their non-government organisations (NGOs) into active politics. Some men and women from the world of art, literature and media are also joining politics. Most of them have not yet made it to the national headlines or front pages. But some of these young or middle-aged activists have either been given tickets or promised assembly entries.
Also read: What will Narendra Modi do if he is not PM in 2019?
A new political canvas
Yet, a new thesis currently in circulation suggests that the Congress is actually aiming at 2024 and not this year’s hotly contested elections. There is no evidence for this hypothesis. The failure of mahagathbandhan is considered by these analysts as the Congress’ greatest shortcoming. They think the party is simply not being serious enough about challenging Narendra Modi. These analysts do not even mention the ideology of strident anti-Congressism that has been the main hurdle to opposition unity.
Be that as it may, the year 2024 will surely see a completely different set of politicians in elections and in power. The transfer of generation has already set in. L.K. Advani and
Murli Manohar Joshi May are the most striking examples of this. But the sun is also setting on the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Deve Gowda, Virbhadra Singh, even Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar, and perhaps Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj.
The political canvas is already witnessing a rise of next generation of dynasts and non-dynasts — the latter with experience in civil society, farmer or tribal movements. But what are the agendas or issues that this diverse class of Gen Next politicians will pursue? It is interesting to note that neither the dynasts nor the activists have a working ideology to fight for.
Also read: Unlike Vajpayee & Advani, gen next BJP leaders groomed by Modi-Shah don’t look promising
Election scenarios
Will Hindutva trigger the same passion and violence in the politics of 2024? Will the frenzy of nationalism be felt again? Narendra Modi will be 74 by then. By his own party’s rule, he won’t contest that election. Will his successor be able to hold the party together? In the absence of a clear ideology and aim, there will be chaos in Parliament and on the streets, as the economy goes for a free fall.
Anyone watching the shenanigans in the BJP closely can tell that the party is held together because of power, Modi’s omnipresence, the fear factor and the absence of a united opposition.
Once that bond of fear and media-generated Modi charisma wanes, the BJP could rapidly fall into a semi-Byzantine disorder. The only cementing force that could remain would be the network of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS would also provide the ideology. It is not clear yet who brought the BJP to power in 2014: the RSS network or Narendra Modi’s hyper-political campaign.
The question, therefore, is not who comes to power or who becomes prime minister in 2019. For the last five years, Modi’s BJP and the RSS have had one primary agenda: to win elections. The ideology was Hindutva-driven nationalism and the pretence was economic reforms.
If Modi becomes PM again, his agenda of coming back for a second time will be fulfilled. If, on the other hand, there is a big drop in the number of the BJP seats but the NDA gets the majority, then maths will define the scenario and not ideology.
Those who are confident that Modi will continue to be the prime minister say that the President, the Election Commission, the judiciary, the intelligence agencies, the ED and the I-T department, and the financial institutions, mainly the Reserve Bank, are loyal to him. They will not let the apple cart break down.
Also read: Not just Rahul Gandhi, one in 10 world leaders comes from households with political ties
Will the party choose another leader is a moot question. There is already speculation that Amit Shah could be the next candidate and not Nitin Gadkari. How many party leaders and NDA partners will support Shah is another intriguing question.
However, if indeed the NDA fails to form a stable government, then Modi will have to sit in opposition, either as the leader of the opposition or campaigning to destabilise the coalition in power. If the skulduggery succeeds, then he can also create a situation for a mid-term poll. How far his party, the NDA partners and the RSS will join him in this, to go for another election, is difficult to say at this moment.
One thing is for sure: The month of May will decide who is removed from the political stage, and which Gen Next leaders will take their place.
Kumar Ketkar is a former editor and Congress member of Rajya Sabha.
The author’s unstated presumption: “ No matter what happens, the Congress will be led only by members of the Vadra-Gandhi family” My only query is- ‘ Does Rahul Gandhi belong to old or new generation? Should he not eclipse if the Congress fails to form government at the Center in 2019?”
Ketkarji, Kahan se laate ho aisa logic ?? Aapko hamari taraf se 51 topon ki salaami..Kuch to baat hai aap mein !! Kamaal ka logic lagate ho.. Kanhaiya, Hardik, Urmila Mantodkar ?? Gennext Leaders ?? Really ?? Are u serious ??
He can’y help it. Some people have a MANDATE to push the Dynstay FIRST and, Congress, NEXT. It helps them that they also hate Modi intensely, without any sense or logic.
One thing is certain. In Shri Ketkar’s party, almost all new leaders will be family members of the existing ones. He should worry about that first rather than worrying about BJP.
OMG. How glaringly does the sheer contempt for Modi come through ! The writer seems totally consumed by heartburn at the ever increasing prospects of Modi ruling as PM for another 5 years , at least. (which he can SEE but pretends to ignore). Pity that ‘wishful thinking’ has completely replaced journalistic insight and judgement.
From your article you are one sided. But your ambition will be in futile.
Old or new generation, the same story of freebies subsidies reservation loan waivers.
Dev Anand being the heartthrob of three generations of Indian women one can understand. Not sure that should hold true for politicians as well. The system needs to be recharged with fresh talent, some inevitably dynastic. Tejashwi Yadav does not feel confident enough to share the stage with Kanhaiya Kumar.