It has become an axiom in political circles that people of India vote differently when it comes to electing Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister and when they have to choose chief ministers. That is to say, when Modi seeks their votes for himself, they don’t think twice. But when he seeks votes for his nominees in states, the same voters are circumspect and don’t necessarily oblige him.
The commonly cited evidence of this differential voting behavior is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s spectacular victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, just six months after its drubbing in the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh assembly elections. Validating this commonly held belief are surveys that show Modi’s popularity increasing even amid BJP’s losses in states.
The general response to Saturday’s verdict of the Karnataka assembly elections has followed the same pattern—that it means nothing for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The principal argument is that regardless of whom Kannadigas voted for in the 2023 assembly election, they have consistently voted for the BJP in Lok Sabha polls—18 seats in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2013, and 25 in 2019 out of a total of 26 seats in the state. But this argument holds true for the last four elections only—once each when Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh were the PM and twice when Modi has been the PM.
Before 2004, the three Assembly and LS polls had seen the domination of one party in both—the Congress in 1999, Janata Dal before that, and the Congress in 1989. Even that trend held up for three assembly and LS polls only. Because the people had voted differently in the 1984 LS and 1985 assembly elections—for the Congress in the first and the Janata Party in the second.
What I am driving at is that it’s okay to believe that if Kannadigas voted for the BJP in the last four Lok Sabha polls, they can do it the fifth time in 2024 as well. Fair enough, especially when all surveys consistently vouch for Modi’s undiminished popularity. But, without seeking to contest this notion, we can take note of a couple of points. Kannadigas didn’t vote differently in 2018 and 2019. In the 2018 assembly election, they almost brought the BJP to power, making it the single largest party with just nine seats short of a majority. Its vote share was also substantially more than what it was in 2013. Another point to take note of is that in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, during the ‘Modi wave,’ the Congress that ruled Karnataka then won 9 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats. Now that it has swept the assembly polls, it’s better-placed for 2024.
As for the notion of people voting differently, if one were to leave the surveys out, the example of the 2019 election doesn’t necessarily hold good for 2024, too. Simply because the Balakot airstrike had changed the mood of the nation in 2019. Opposition leaders’ cynical demands for proof of the extent of damage on the Pakistani side only deepened its electoral impact.
Therefore, once we agree to the impact of the Balakot strike on the 2019 Lok Sabha election results, we can understand why PM Modi must be worried about 2024. It’s true that there was a general sense of despondency about the state of affairs in Karnataka. The opposition successfully created a mahaul or atmosphere of distrust against the Bommai government, with its ‘PayCM,’ ‘40% commission government,’ and other campaigns centred around alleged misgovernance and promoting a sense of insecurity and slight among various caste groups, especially Lingayats. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey showed that only one-seventh of the respondents considered the Bommai-led government’s works while voting. One-fifth of the voters considered the works of both the state and the Central governments. 42 % of the voters were “somewhat dissatisfied” and “fully dissatisfied” with the Bommai government’s performance; it was 41 per cent in case of the Central government.
BJP machinery is turning ineffective
So, why did the BJP fight the election over Tip Sultan, Hijab, Halal, and ‘love jihad,’ among other polarising issues? Whose idea was it to keep humiliating BS Yediyurappa after he became the CM in 2019 and even after he stepped down in 2021? Whose idea was it to replace him and make Lingayats feel slighted? Whose idea was it to deny tickets to Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi and further rub salt on the wounds? Whose idea was it to go for a reservation quota rejig that left every community insecure and confused? Whoever gave these ideas to the BJP high command certainly had no pulse of Karnataka voters. But here is the problem: If the party’s national president JP Nadda had no pulse of voters in his home state, Himachal Pradesh, how can PM Modi expect others to know better? If the Basavaraj Bommai government was flailing, it was for all to see. How come the BJP high command failed to see it? And if it did, how come nothing was done to fix the problem? And if the high command was happy with Bommai’s governance, why did the party completely ignore it and make Modi and his governance the central plank? There are lots of questions but no answers.
That’s what PM Modi must be worried about. Because a similar thing happened in Himachal Pradesh too. The BJP celebrated its success in the Northeast but the fact was it barely managed to retain power in Tripura. Had it not been for Pradyot Debbarma’s Tipra Motha Party (TMP), the BJP would have lost power in Tripura, as reported by ThePrint.
The BJP celebrated its success in Meghalaya and Nagaland, but the fact was that the party made little gains even in these two states, winning the same number of seats—2 in Meghalaya and 12 in Nagaland—as it had done five years ago when it had joined the government in both states.
That the BJP would go to town about what was hardly a cause for big celebrations is understandable. Because it had to send out a message of invincibility to demoralise the opposition and motivate party cadres. But PM Modi would know the reality, for sure. He knows Gujarat’s victory last year was all his. Himachal results were a dampener. The outcome of polls in three northeastern states two months back was hardly a confidence-booster. And now, the Karnataka setback! PM Modi has reasons to be worried, not just about the next round of elections in five states in November-December but also about the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
He knows that his party is floundering. He must be realising now that the much-hyped organisational machinery of the BJP becomes ineffective if he himself is not effective. When Chandragupta succeeds, there are many Chanakyas to share credit. But if Modi’s magic doesn’t work in assembly elections, the Chanakyas simply lay the blame on lesser mortals for failing the party.
BJP needs a new narrative
There is always a debate about the need for opposition parties to build a new narrative. As it is, the opposition is seeking to build a new narrative around anti-incumbency. It’s the BJP that needs a new narrative now. The same polarisation tactics, the same promotion of Hindutva, nationalism, jingoism, and the same dependence on PM Modi to deliver votes through his own charisma and welfarist governance—nothing has changed for the BJP since 2014. The BJP’s electoral strategies are so predictable today. Their vulnerability gets exposed whenever there is a smart, thinking opponent like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, or DK Shivakumar.
So, how can PM Modi fix the drift in the BJP? To start with, he may want to fix accountability for the political and electoral lapses. He may want to take a re-look at the BJP’s electoral strategy that’s becoming so jaded and predictable. He has to put a stop to this high commandist culture and start promoting leaders who are contributing to the party’s growth — like Yogi Adityanath, Himanta Biswa Sarma, and Devendra Fadnavis — and not those who are feeding off his popularity to promote their individual ambitions.
Party reforms aside, Modi needs to find out why people aren’t buying his double-engine growth promise any longer. He had his ears to the ground for decades until he became the Gujarat chief minister in 2001. Blame it on the constraints of a CM or a PM, he has largely been insulated and dependent on the feedback of others who would obviously give him a rosy picture. Nine years into the PM’s office, he needs an update on what’s happening on the ground. He needs to convince his colleagues in the party and the government that they should stop believing in their own propaganda—that all is well and everybody is happy. Census 2021 needs to be conducted urgently to find out the demographic and socio-economic changes in the country since Modi took over the country’s reins. The government shows so much sympathy for migrants but doesn’t want any concrete data about migration that a census would provide. Ruling party members talk about certain minority communities growing and hampering overall development, but they don’t want any concrete data to substantiate it. They talk about the number of houses they have built, but they don’t want to know how many more people need them. They talk about how the common man’s life has been transformed by the Modi-led government’s welfare measures, but they don’t want any data to judge their claims with facts. They don’t want the household consumer expenditure survey to tell us how much inequality has increased or reduced, how much people are spending on food or non-food items monthly, what cereals they are eating, how much people are spending on rent or education, how the bottom 5 percent is doing compared to the top 5 percent, what energy sources people are using for cooking or lighting, and so on. The government rejected the results of the expenditure survey for 2017-18 on so-called quality issues that nobody is convinced about. It was rejected apparently because the findings didn’t match the Modi government’s tall claims. Findings of another survey for 2022-23 would be ready, but the government is reluctant to make them public before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, as reported by The Indian Express.
That’s why when the BJP launches a high-octane campaign making tall claims about how it has changed the lives of citizens, there are many in the crowds who could be feeling cheated and slighted because they might not have seen those changes in their own lives. To say that the BJP lost in Karnataka because of Bommai’s misgovernance would be a travesty. When my colleagues and I were on the ground talking with the people in Karnataka, we witnessed a deep grouse among them about the cost of LPG cylinders, diesel, petrol, and household items. Some of them even remembered how demonetisation was supposed to end black money. They weren’t even aware of the Amrit Kaal, which has brought “unprecedented opportunities” to them.
Yes, they still believed in PM Modi. But a narrative built on claims that common men and women themselves haven’t experienced is gradually turning out to be counterproductive. That’s the message Kannadigas have sent through this assembly election. Those in the BJP who have made a fortune singing praises of Modi may not get it. But PM Modi knows what Kannadigas have conveyed to him.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)