Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seems to have crowd-sourced his inner battles. He is asking people many questions at public meetings: Should I contest the election or not? Am I running a good or bad government? Should this government continue at all? Should Mama become CM (again)?
The crowds’ response comes in the form of “Mama, Mama” slogans. Chouhan’s questions seem to reflect conflicting emotions—of helplessness, desperation, and defiance. They are directed more toward his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) colleagues in New Delhi who are calling the shots. The party high command is in no mood to give him a fifth term in office. That’s why he is asking the people to speak out and tell the high command who they want.
Chouhan must be puzzled. What’s his fault? He is only 64, unlike Karnataka ex-CM BS Yediyurappa whose age, 79, came in handy to the high command that sidelined him ahead of the 2023 assembly election in the southern state. Chouhan’s four terms, spanning around 17 years since 2005, have been largely taint-free, discounting the usual charges from the opposition. If winnability is the criterion, no state BJP politician can claim to come anywhere close to him in terms of mass appeal. To top it all, given the current debate over caste census centred on backward class politics, Chouhan, the only OBC leader among 10 BJP CMs, would have been an ideal face to seek another mandate for.
So, what explains the BJP high command’s refusal to say that Chouhan will continue as the CM if the party retains power? Spin doctors’ usual argument about the need to develop new, younger leadership doesn’t wash.
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Look at the new leadership
First, Chouhan still has at least a decade of politics left in him—even though one were to go by the erstwhile ceiling of 75 years for BJP leaders to hang up their boots. Anyway, that ceiling was meant for a select group of senior leaders. Now that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at 73, has spelt out his agenda for governance till 2029, even that unofficial age limit has become redundant. Now, former chief ministers of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh, both 70, can justifiably stake claim for another term in office, given that they are the BJP’s only mass leaders in their respective states.
Second, look at the alternative leadership the BJP seems to be building. Its second list of candidates offers a glimpse into the high command’s range of choices so far—Narendra Singh Tomar, 66, Prahlad Patel, 63, Faggan Singh Kulaste, 64, and Kailash Vijayvargiya, 67.
If age is the criterion, what makes any of them better than Chouhan? If it’s about administrative acumen, just think of the portfolios of the first three who are all Union ministers. Can you recall the last important decision Tomar took in his capacity as the Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare? The last time he made headlines—that is, before getting party ticket to contest assembly election—was when he was the Centre’s face in its negotiations with farmers agitating against the farm laws. Prahlad Singh Patel, who was holding independent charge of the ministries of tourism and culture, was, in July 2021, demoted and made junior minister in the ministries of Jal Shakti and food processing industries. Kulaste was a minister of state in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and found a place in the Modi government too, but without promotion. As for these leaders’ mass appeal, it’s limited to their constituencies at best.
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Who the new face should be
If the BJP high command was serious about promoting a new face in Madhya Pradesh, they had an option—Jyotiraditya Scindia. He is 52 and a sharp politician with appeal among the youth beyond his Chambal-Gwalior region. Scindia’s administrative acumen was recognised even by former PM Manmohan Singh who promoted him and gave him independent charge of power. In comparison, Scindia’s current portfolio in the Modi Cabinet—civil aviation—is rather of show-off utility without Air India.
The high command has chosen to field Tomar, whose rivalry with Scindia is well-known and also made him convenor of the BJP’s election management committee.
That’s why Chouhan must be puzzled about the party high command’s true objective. And so would be Raje and Raman Singh. The BJP just doesn’t have any leader other than these two in these states who can get votes beyond their assembly and parliamentary constituencies, if at all. Yet, the high command wouldn’t continue with them at any cost. Without their proactive involvement, the recent Jan Ashirwad Yatras and Parivarta Yatras of the BJP in MP and Rajasthan were a disaster, with thin crowds in attendance and party workers and leaders fighting it out in the open.
So much so that the party’s chief strategist, Amit Shah, at a core group meeting in Jaipur, gave a piece of his mind to leaders for their failure to generate momentum through the yatras.
For sure, PM Modi has nothing to gain by undermining his contemporaries. He is in a different league. When it comes to the BJP’s interests, the PM can go out of the way and even call up and plead with party rebels howsoever insignificant they might be. So why would he allow Chouhan and Raje to be undermined so publicly? One doesn’t have the answer. But one thing is sure. Chouhan, Raje and Raman Singh getting out of the way after the assembly election helps in the emergence of a new BJP—like new India, new Parliament building, new criminal laws, and so many other new things. In August 2019, I pointed out in my PoliticallyCorrect column that 52 BJP leaders who were in Vajpayee’s last council of ministers are still around. Of those, only six had made it to the Modi 2.0 council of ministers — Rajnath Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Prahlad Patel, Santosh Gangwar, Shripad Yesso Naik, and Faggan Kulaste.
Of these, Prasad and Gangwar were eased out of the Cabinet in 2021. Naik, who was minister of state with independent charge of the AYUSH ministry, was demoted and made Minister of State for Ports, Shipping and Waterways the same year. Patel was demoted in 2021 and has now been fielded in the assembly election. Kulaste, a junior minister in the Vajpayee government, has been holding the same position in the Modi government since 2016, with different portfolios. He has also been fielded in the assembly election.
If Patel and Kulaste are asked to remain in state politics and the BJP retains power in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, there may be only one leader in the Modi Cabinet left from the Vajpayee Cabinet — Rajnath Singh. Presumably. In that sense, it will be a completely new BJP government at the Centre. Of the 10 BJP CMs, only Chouhan is from the Vajpayee era. Of the strong chief ministerial contenders from the Vajpayee era, only Raje and Raman Singh are left. So, in a way, the coming assembly election will see the remnants of the BJP from the Vajpayee era finally making way for a new crop of leaders—those who owe it all to PM Modi and Shah.
Remember the Laxman Sylvania ad pitch by Asrani in the 1980s: “Poore ghar ke badal daloonga?” Well, Modi-Shah may achieve it in May 2024.
DK Singh is ThePrint’s Political Editor. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)