Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in Nizamabad on Tuesday must come as a big relief to people in the southern states. There were apprehensions that the delimitation of constituencies, as proposed to be done after the next census, would result in the reduction of southern states’ representation in the Lok Sabha as compared to more populous northern states. The PM hinted in Nizamabad that the redrawing of constituencies may not be based solely on population. He obliquely conceded that it would be “grave injustice” to southern states that have been successful in controlling population.
Taking a jibe at Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his slogan of “jitni abadi, utna haq (rights in proportion to population)”, a rehash of Bahujan Samaj Party founder Kanshi Ram’s “jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedari” slogan, Modi said:
“Such thinking is grave injustice to South India ….Nowadays, next delimitation is being discussed in the country. You know, after 25 years, what will be the number of Parliament seats is decided by the judiciary. Because of this, seats decrease where the population is smaller and increase where it is bigger. All states in Southern India have helped the country a lot by controlling the population growth. Congress’ slogan is such that the Congress is going to do the drama of reducing the number of Members of Parliament of South India…Will South India forgive Congress?”
Also read: Vishwaguru or victim? Modi politics will have an identity crisis in 2024
Takeaways from Modi’s Nizamabad speech
One can always nit-pick that the PM wasn’t factual when he said that the judiciary decides the number of Parliament seats. It’s the Parliament (practically, the Modi government in today’s context) that decides it. Besides, how can the Congress reduce the number of Parliament seats when PM Modi himself has promised to fulfil all aspirations of the people during his third term in office?
Let’s not get into facts while discussing political speeches, especially those made during election campaigns. But a definite takeaway from Modi’s Nizamabad address was that southern states can relax for now. One of the conspiracy theories floating in political circles is that the BJP was planning to make South Indian states virtually irrelevant in government formation at the Centre by decreasing their share of seats in the Lok Sabha and increasing representation of northern states, where the party enjoys complete sway. Well, for now, Modi has settled the matter by acknowledging southern states’ contribution to population control and suggesting that reducing their Parliament seats would be grave injustice to them. This also suggests that the BJP isn’t going to give up on its expansion plans in South India, even though prospects don’t look so bright in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Modi’s Nizamabad speech was extremely significant for two other reasons. First, he presented his blueprint to counter the opposition’s attempt to corner him and his party over the caste census. Second, this speech and other recent ones by him suggest that coming elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana – excluding Mizoram – will witness a sort of dry run to again test the electoral efficacy of Hindu-Muslim polarising campaigns before the Lok Sabha elections next year. The electoral effectiveness of BJP’s polarising campaigns has come under increasing scrutiny – like in Delhi, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
Also read: Corruption, infighting, indiscipline—why BJP, not Congress, is bigger headache for Modi now
BJP rethinking strategies?
Coming to the first point, Modi’s speech in Nizamabad suggested a rethink about the party’s strategy vis-a-vis other backward classes (OBCs). When the opposition sought to corner the government for not providing for an OBC sub-quota in the women’s reservation law, Modi sought to blunt it by showcasing his OBC credentials. He said that the opposition “hates him” because despite being an OBC, he became the PM.
Modi blamed the opposition for their “sin” of dividing society on caste lines.
Yet, these attacks on the opposition appeared to be a defensive strategy as the PM and other BJP leaders didn’t spell out categorically if they were against the caste census. That was until Modi signalled a big shift in Nizamabad, a day after the Nitish Kumar-led government in Bihar released the caste survey that revealed 63 per cent backward class population in the state. Opposition parties latched on to it, reiterating their demand for a nationwide caste census – their enthusiasm stemming from the anticipation that mobilisation of the backward classes would be an antidote to the BJP’s Hindutva politics.
On Tuesday, Modi categorically rejected jitni abadi, utna haq slogan, or the concept of rights (read quota) in proportion to population. In doing so, he has shown an inclination to return to his party’s original electoral strategy centred around stoking latent resentment of non-dominant communities – say, for instance, non-Yadav OBCs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, non-Jats in Haryana, non-Marathas in Maharashtra or non-tribals in Jharkhand – against dominant ones to mobilise the former in its favour.
Non-dominant communities – though numerically small individually – were much greater in strength when seen collectively. The party applied the same strategy for non-dominant OBCs. That explained its 2017 decision to set up the Justice Rohini Commission to sub-categorise OBCs and redistribute the reservation quota. Subsequently, as the dominant OBCs like Yadavs and Jats showed an inclination to vote for Modi, the BJP went slow with this strategy, giving as many as 13 extensions to the Commission, which finally submitted its report on 1 August.
The BJP was said to be planning to put it on the back burner. However, the opposition’s caste census politics, which has got a leg-up after the Bihar survey, might have prompted Modi to re-assess his party’s original strategy. The opposition’s insistence on population-based rights (quotas) could potentially align it with dominant OBCs who have been hogging most reservation benefits. What the Congress would gain from it remained a million-dollar question as these dominant OBCs are aligned with regional parties.
Also read: Corruption, infighting, indiscipline—why BJP, not Congress, is bigger headache for Modi now
Modi to lead BJP’s polarising campaign
The BJP obviously sees an opportunity in this. Modi’s unstated message in Nizamabad was that he was okay with dominant OBCs aligning with the opposition as long as it led to the mobilisation of non-dominant ones toward the BJP. That explains the PM’s categorical rejection of Rahul’s slogan. It also means that if need be, the Centre may be open to the idea of implementing the Rohini Commission report on redistributing OBC quota.
As for the second point, or the third big takeaway from PM Modi’s Nizamabad speech, he has given clear hints that he will lead the party’s polarising campaign from the front in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The trend in the past few years has been that, while other BJP leaders ratchet up the Hindus-in-danger campaign, Modi projects himself as a fully development-oriented leader who stands against corruption and dynasties. Occasionally, he would feed into Hindutva narratives – like Bajrang Bali slogans in Karnataka – but would remain largely measured in his words.
No more so. His campaign speeches in the past week show him leading from the front to build a polarising campaign. He has been giving graphic details of the throat-slitting incident in Rajasthan and taunting the Tamil Nadu government for not “touching” places of worship belonging to minority communities.
In Nizamabad, he blamed the Stalin-led government for taking over Hindu temples but not “touching places of worship of minorities”. “If this (jitni abadi, utna haq) is your (Congress’) mantra, will your allies take control of all the places of worship of minorities? (These people) won’t do.”
Should the Prime Minister be raking up the brutal killing of a tailor by two Muslim men or criticising a state government for not touching Muslims’ places of worship? As one says, everything is fair in love and war, and Indian politics is nothing but war today.
Addressing a rally in Chhattisgarh on Tuesday, Modi cited former PM Manmohan Singh’s 2006 statement, where he had said that minorities have the first right to the country’s resources. Modi then brought in Rahul’s slogan and asked this question: “The Congress says that the population of the community will determine who will have the first right to the country’s resources…Do they want to remove the minorities?… Should the Hindus, who have the largest population, come forward and take all their rights?” Well, this signals the beginning of an intensely polarising campaign in the forthcoming assembly elections, which could serve as a dry run for the 2024 general election.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)