New Delhi: Pakistan’s general elections held on 8 February was meant to be an exercise in crowning Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif as the leader of the country for the fourth time. But the results, still trickling in more than 24 hours after the votes were cast, have landed a major blow to Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s chances of securing a clear victory in the eyes of the world, despite complete backing of the powerful Pakistani military.
Sharif, the prodigal son of Pakistan, has never completed a full term as prime minister. In 2017, he resigned after the Supreme Court found him “unfit” for holding office.
His party PML-N lost over 80 seats in the 2018 general election, allowing former Pakistan cricket captain Imran Khan to come to power. Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won 149 out of 342 seats in the National Assembly.
This year, the state has come down hard against the PTI, with Khan being convicted in multiple cases pertaining to corruption, leaking of state secrets, and for his “illegal” marriage with wife Bushra Bibi.
The state cracked down hard on the PTI, with Khan barred from contesting and the Election Commission twice stripping the party off its famed electoral symbol, the ‘cricket bat’. PTI candidates registered as independents and were forced to use social media to canvas for votes.
The elections, with the counting still on, had all the makings of a fixed match, in a country rocked by rising militancy, struggling with high inflation (around 30 per cent in December 2023) and a weak economy.
This is why Pakistan’s 2024 general elections are ThePrint’s Newsmaker of the Week.
A disrupted poll
Violence during the election season is not new. However, for Pakistan, the last saw a marked increase in violence, with media reports indicating the highest number of militancy-linked fatalities in six years—1,524 from at least 789 terrorist attacks and counter-terror operations, according to a study published by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank.
On the day before polling, back-to-back blasts struck the country, killing 26 people and injuring at least 30 in Balochistan. On the day of the polls, at least nine people were killed in bomb blasts, grenade attacks, and targeted firing at polling booths.
In fact, Mohsin Dawar, the chairman of the Pashtun nationalist party National Democratic Movement (NDM), even alleged that polling booths in North Waziristan district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were captured by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The day of the polls also witnessed the Ministry of Interior suspending all mobile and internet services across the country. Social media served as the tool for the PTI to mobilise its voters. With the loss of internet and cell phoneservices, the political parties, including Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), went to the courts hoping to have the order withdrawn.
The PTI alleged one of its independent candidates was assassinated on 31 January, while The New York Timesreported how the party’s candidates were forced into hiding at safe houses and campaigning in small groups. Their family members were threatened with jail time in an attempt to further harm the party.
While polls closed at 5 PM local time Thursday in Pakistan, the results were delayed by hours. The PTI alleged that the delay was a result of the ECP attempting to rig the votes in favour of the PML-N.
Despite the crackdown on the PTI, early trends showed a sizable number of seats won by PTI-backed independents, marking a setback to the heir apparent Sharif. All of this brings into focus the role of the military in Pakistani politics.
Military on the back foot?
Imran Khan was ousted from power in April 2022. Khan blamed the Pakistani military and the US for his ouster. His withering attacks against the US led him to wave a piece of paper in protest, declaring it a “cipher” proving US involvement in the no-confidence motion against him.
While this ploy led to his conviction for leaking state secrets in January 2024, along with his foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, his attacks on the Pakistani military did not cease.
When Khan was arrested in May 2023, the Pakistani military faced the ire of PTI supporters. On 9 May 2023, the partycalled for protests across the country, which saw protesters pushing through the gates of the Army Headquarters, while angry mobs set a senior officer’s house on fire.
Demonstrators also attempted to loot a school run by paramilitary forces – actions once unthinkable in a country that had been led by the military for significant periods until the early 21st century.
The powerful Pakistani military witnessed firsthand the impact of Khan’s consistent attacks against them. While famed for stage-managing the country’s politics for years, and even as some argue Sharif’s return, the military went into the 2024 elections on the back foot.
Despite all efforts to thwart the PTI, Nawaz Sharif seems destined to retake power in Pakistan, albeit in a more restrained fashion than what people were predicting the day before the elections.
Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)