Recent remarks by BJP’s Ram Madhav are an indication of the Modi government’s desire to improve the mood music with China.
The inaugural round of the 2+2 dialogue between India and the United States should provide a useful barometer of the state of the bilateral relationship. Even as the two sides work their way through thorny issues like potential American sanctions if India purchases the S-400 missile system from Russia, or the nitty-gritty of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, the wider geopolitical context will bulk large over the discussions.
The elephant in the room may well turn out to be India’s improving ties with China and its implications for relations with the US.
After all, the growing Indo-US strategic convergence over the past four years has been shaped by shared concerns about China’s evolving posture in Asia. In particular, New Delhi accepted the unspoken assumption that it needed the US as the crucial partner for external balancing against China – even if this circumscribed its pursuit of strategic autonomy. Just why the Narendra Modi government reached this conclusion early on is perhaps best left for future historians to debate. However, the consequences of this move are clear.
As New Delhi aligned its stand on the South China Sea with that of Washington, China began thwarting India’s desire for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and tilted sharply towards Pakistan. In turn, India stood away from China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Also read: 2+2 talks: China in focus, US unlikely to make an issue of India’s arms deal with Russia
In a curious turn of events, the sharpest differences between India and China were not over older bilateral issues such as the disputed boundary or Tibet, but about wider issues that were arguably more about status than the pursuit of hard interests.
Notwithstanding the ritual invocations of cooperation as well as competition, India-China relations were quickly turning into a zero-sum game. The prolonged stand-off over Doklam underscored the dangers of allowing this dynamic to shape the relationship. The two sides’ decision to arrest this slide came not a day too soon.
The informal summit in Wuhan earlier this year attempted to place the relationship on an even keel. Both sides not only affirmed the importance of a stable relationship in the context of “wider global uncertainties”, but also described themselves as “major powers with strategic and decisional autonomy”.
The unnamed source of these global uncertainties was, of course, the Trump administration. The reference to strategic autonomy also signalled that New Delhi could recalibrate its policies vis-à-vis the US and China, if Beijing respected India’s sensitivities and aspirations.
Subsequent meetings and statements have indicated India’s continued desire to shore up its ties with China.
Also read: India’s answer to Chinese Belt & Road Initiative should be a new road map for South Asia
Two recent developments are worth noting. A couple of weeks ago, BJP general secretary Ram Madhav announced that the government was preparing a plan to connect the northeastern states directly with the port of Chittagong in Bangladesh. More importantly, he added that India was open to Chinese investment and participation in this effort. This had apparently been mooted during his recently concluded visit to China.
This move must be placed against the backdrop of India’s vocal opposition to China’s BRI. At the time of the BRI jamboree in Beijing last year, India explained its decision to stay out by pointing to a host of problems with the initiative: lack of transparency and adherence to international norms, financial and ecological sustainability, transgression of sovereignty and territorial integrity. While much of this criticism was well-aimed, New Delhi was also seen by other countries as playing a largely negative role.
India’s own track record in infrastructure and connectivity projects in the region is underwhelming –to put it mildly. For all its claims about placing “neighbourhood first”, the Modi government had not moved the needle on this to any significant extent. The latest proposal, if backed by resources, allows India at once to table an interesting proposal and to move towards a more cooperative framework with China on these issues.
The second development was Madhav’s claim that India and China had resolved their dispute over a large segment of the boundary, barring the western sector in Ladakh, and that the boundary negotiations were progressing well.
The BJP general secretary’s statement seems confused and confusing. The two sides are not engaged in a sector-by-sector negotiation of the boundary and the Chinese are unlikely to make any concessions in the eastern sector (Arunachal Pradesh) till such time India agrees to concessions in the western sector (Ladakh). It may well be possible that he was perhaps referring to the attempt at clarifying the Line of Actual Control. Even if Madhav was mistaken, his remarks are an interesting indication of the government’s desire to improve the mood music with China.
Also read: Things on the table for 2+2 talks: Trump’s enthusiasm, visas & India’s Republic Day invite
Such issues won’t be discussed in the upcoming India-US dialogue. But the Americans must surely wonder what India’s desire to reset its relations with China portends for its policies in the Indo-Pacific. Securing greater Indian participation in US-led efforts in this region will be a top priority for the Pentagon.
New Delhi, for its part, may find that it has more room for manoeuvre in dealing with the Trump administration on difficult issues such as missile purchases from Russia. The US can scarcely count on India to work with it in checking China’s mounting presence in the Asia-Pacific while it actively undermines both India’s longstanding relationship with Russia and its pursuit of strategic autonomy. President Trump may not back down so easily. All the more reason for New Delhi to keep up its détente with China.
The author is a Senior Fellow at Centre for Policy Research.
The logic for better relations between India and China goes beyond the angularities of the Trump administration. FS Vijay Gokhale is proving to be a more sagacious presence than his predecessor, although both are China experts.