In the election year, the Prime Minister is unexpectedly projecting a softer image of himself.
Nearly 10 months from now, Narendra Modi will be up for re-election. As the Modi narrative has been hurt by complaints of unemployment, the pain of farm distress, and a fragmented opposition coming together, many have expected Modi to take recourse to Hindutva and an aggressive nationalism.
After all, Modi’s USP is his hypothetical 56-inch wide chest. His foreign policy is often called “muscular”. No leader personifies Hindutva like he does, not even the RSS chief.
Most people see the Modi-led BJP shedding, not gaining, from its historic high of 282 seats. For that very reason, Modi might pull a rabbit out of the hat. He’s the master of surprise. The surprise people expect, at least according to chai-shop chatter, is a military confrontation with Pakistan that is short of war, or a big Hindutva turning point, such as the building of a grand Ram Mandir.
True to form, Modi appears to be defying what people expect him to do. Over the last few weeks, he has appeared to be deflating his 56-inch chest. In both foreign policy and at home, Modi is projecting himself as the nice guy, less Modi and more Vajpayee.
A thaw with Pakistan?
In a grand show designed for TV, the prime minister spoke of the surgical strike on Pakistan with Prasoon Joshi in London. Since then, it has been clear that a thaw with Pakistan is in the works.
According to the Indo-Pak Conflict Monitor, there were more ceasefire violations in Jammu and Kashmir by India than by Pakistan in 2017. This year, so far, the reverse has been true, signalling an Indian intent to bring down hostilities.
The DGMOs of both countries have re-affirmed their commitment to the 2003 (Vajpayee-era) ceasefire “understanding”. Pakistan Rangers and India’s Border Security Force have held a meeting to agree to bring calm to the borders. The two countries have agreed to exchange some prisoners. The joint judicial mechanism for prisoners and fishermen is being revived.
The Indian government and the Pakistan military have both made noises about peace. The revival of the “comprehensive dialogue” may not be on the horizon, but a bilateral cricket series could be.
All of this is the standard operating procedure for an India-Pakistan thaw. Heightened tension has to let off steam with a thaw. It is part of the India-Pakistan cycle of events to maintain some stability. The back-channels have obviously been at work.
But what does an Indo-Pak thaw do to Modi’s 56-inch chest in an election year?
Ramzan ceasefire
Given how bad things have been in Kashmir since 2016, a Ramzan ceasefire is in the order of things. Yet, it is not a Modi-Doval thing to do. The government has gone to the extent of saying that the ceasefire could be extended if it does well. The Ramzan symbolism cannot be missed. They could have called it a Ramzan-Amarnath ceasefire, perhaps?
Mehbooba Mufti, the embattled head of the worst-possible political alliance, has been given some breathing space. If Modi had to do Hindutva and nationalist positioning, as many expected, the last thing he would have announced in an election year was a Ramzan ceasefire.
War with Pakistan is not possible, but Modi seemingly going soft on militants in Kashmir during Ramzan is the last thing his Hindutva constituency wants to see. This is the sort of stuff for which Modi and his party called the Manmohan government “weak”.
Wuhan reset
Standing humbly against a smug-looking President Xi, Modi had his arms folded, his shoulders hunched forward. That is not the image Modi wants to project back home.
The image symbolised what Modi went to Wuhan for. The “informal” summit was described as a “reset” in Sino-Indian ties. In plain English, India has climbed down from its aggressive posturing against China. The Modi government is being less pally with China’s bête noire Dalai Lama, and has scaled down its participation in Exercise Malabar, a naval exercise. India is not responding to the American overtures to join the military grouping Quad.
While this is partly a response to Modi-Trump relations not doing as well as Modi-Obama relations, analysts agree that the Wuhan summit was about the 2019 elections. Modi wouldn’t like another Doklam in an election year.
Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi was quick to ask about Doklam after the “no agenda” Wuhan summit. A climb-down from aggressive posturing against China doesn’t do much for Modi’s strongman, ultra-nationalist image.
Prophet Mohammed to Sant Kabir
Narendra Modi is also calming India’s relations with Nepal, and has chosen not to be an interventionist in Maldives. These foreign policy moves could be seen as an attempt to make sure that there is no unpredictable security situation around the 2019 elections. Unpredictable security scenarios can backfire.
But what explains the increasing frequency with which he is reaching out to Muslims?
It wasn’t the first time that Modi visited a mosque when he did so in Indonesia and Singapore last week. But this time, not only did he have himself wrapped around a green chaddar, he also posted that photo on Twitter.
Visited the Chulia Mosque in Singapore. The Mosque is one of the oldest in the city. pic.twitter.com/WqUMBvrObq
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 2, 2018
For a man so conscious of what message he conveys through his images, this cannot be an oversight. What is he trying to convey?
Surely, such an image runs contrary to the expectation that Modi will take to Hindutva in a tough election year.
Modi will soon spend a day in eastern Uttar Pradesh at the shrine of Sant Kabir, an icon of Hindu-Muslim unity as well as anti-caste movements. In extending his greetings on Ramzan, he went to the extent of hailing Prophet Mohammed, recalling his “pious thoughts”, which highlighted “the importance of harmony, kindness and charity”. This was no perfunctory greeting. He said it in his Mann ki Baat address and posted the audio excerpt on Twitter.
Ramzan greetings to everyone. We recall the pious thoughts of Paighambar Mohammad Sahab, who highlighted the importance of harmony, kindness and charity. These are also the virtues the Holy Month of Ramzan stands for. https://t.co/BHnO8AVFL2
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 17, 2018
Talking about the distribution of cylinders under the Ujjwala scheme on the NaMo app, Modi said that he had many Muslim friends in his childhood, and he remembered how Muslim women had to wake up early to prepare meals for sehri. They don’t have to wake up that early because they have LPG cylinders now, he said.
Does this sound like a person preparing a Hindutva-nationalist campaign?
Who writes this bunkum ?
Wuhan summit has nothing to do with elections – it has everything to do with what’s best for India. India needed to repair relations with China but not from weakness but strength. The ridiculous characterization of PM Modi is vulgar distortion of reality – which is that India and China both recognize that good relations between the two nations are necessary and hostility damages both nations.
PM Modi’s only “change” is that the Govt no longer cares about the witless ranting of Rahul Gandhi or the Congress Party and is working to secure India’s interests be it in Singapore, in Indonesia or in Wuhan . The Ramadan ceasefire was welcomed and championed by ALL parties including the security experts.
It is a strategy by the RSS to project Modi as a moderate.The Hindutva card will be played by Yogi, Ananthkumar Hegde, and others. Yogi himself has started distancing himself from the Hindu Yuva Vahini, his own organization, that wanted to remove dead Muslim women from their graves and rape them. The RSS is getting Yogi ready to replace Modi when he runs out of steam.
He can never be trusted. After all we all know what happened in Gujarat 2002! No votes for him for sure.
A statesman like avatar. It gets my vote, for sure.