Competitive Hindutva could become central to the public discourse if the Congress wins two of the three BJP-ruled states Tuesday.
The outcome of the assembly elections Tuesday, 11 December, could turn out to be a watershed in contemporary Indian politics. Not because it will draw the battle lines for 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Not also because it would be the first time in five years that the Congress could dislodge a BJP government in any state. And definitely not because it would make us any more enlightened about the popularity ratings of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.
Tuesday’s electoral verdict could be a watershed because it would determine the character and politics of India’s oldest party, the Congress. If there is one individual who has the biggest stake in this round of assembly elections, it’s Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
With the BJP virtually succeeding in attaining its objective of a “Congress-mukt Bharat”, Gandhi sought to re-invent himself and his party in these elections. From being listed as a “non-Hindu” in Gujarat’s Somnath Temple register a year back, he went on to become a “janeudhari Shiv-bhakt” and emerged as a Dattatreya Brahmin a fortnight back. His party, the Congress, has also got transformed from being portrayed as a “Muslim party” that indulged in “appeasement politics” into one that promises commercial production of “gau mutra (cow urine)” and development of “Ram Path” or the mythical route Lord Ram had taken during his exile.
If the Congress does well on Tuesday — that is, if it wins even two of the three BJP-ruled states — Rahul Gandhi is set to become a bigger Brahmin and his party more brahminical in its politics, however much leaders such as Shashi Tharoor argue that it “remains a party for all, the safest refuge for the minorities… and fundamentally committed to secularism.”
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Competitive Hindutva
If the Congress comes up trumps on Tuesday, it would set the tone for 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with competitive Hindutva becoming central to the public discourse and the people left with the option of choosing between a ‘real Hindu’ and a ‘pseudo Hindu’ as the B JP would have them believe or an OBC ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ and a Dattatreya Brahmin. And this shift in the principal opposition party’s politics may not be temporary or 2019-specific; it could change the party’s ideological tenets permanently.
But if the Congress were to win just Rajasthan and fail to win any other state, as predicted by the exit polls, Gandhi and his advisers, if there are any, might go back to the drawing board to re-assess the merits and efficacy of his strategy to emulate the BJP to defeat the BJP.
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He might also then take a look at the dichotomy in his economic outlook that he shares with Comrade Sitaram Yechury and his new political philosophy that he has started sharing with the Hindu Right.
The Congress president might also then lose a bit of his pride in being a Dattatreya Brahmin — in public display, at least — and try to re-invent himself not as who he is but as what he represents.
Gandhi’s leadership under test
The outcome Tuesday would also be a verdict on Gandhi as a leader and political strategist. He put his best foot forward in this election, putting in place a plan to counter “what the BJP may do next”, say his close aides. There were many firsts that the Congress did in the run up to the elections.
Booth-level workers were given training about how they would bring voters, block attempts to rig the polls and “watch over EVMs”. Suspicious of the ruling party’s attempt to ‘manage’ the elections, the Congress kept a “close watch” on chief ministers’ residences and election officials. They spotted an income tax official and a district collector entering Chhattisgarh chief minister’s residence and made a hue and cry about it to deter others.
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Gandhi has instructed his party candidates not to celebrate or leave counting centres without collecting certificates of their victories to avoid any ‘last-minute manipulation’ in a photo-finish. While Gandhi was criss-crossing states, dabbling in Hindutva, he deployed leaders of backward castes to engage those groups in Chhattisgarh — parliamentarian Tamradhwaj Sahu with Sahus, state Congress president Bhupesh Baghel with Kurmis, and AICC Secretary in charge of the state Chandan Yadav with Yadavs. The idea was to wean away influential OBCs from Modi.
At the macro level, Gandhi managed to ensure a semblance of unity on the ground and got faction leaders to work in tandem, even in Madhya Pradesh. He was perceived to have humiliated former MP chief minister Digvijaya Singh by keeping him out of the Congress Working Committee, but it dawned on the political adversaries later that it was a well-thought out strategy to ‘neutralise’ the BJP’s usual focus on Singh’s “misrule” for 10 years to scare away voters.
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When Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s pointsman in the Northeast, was wooing top Congress leaders in Mizoram, the Congress hurriedly sent a 15-member team to Aizawl to counter Sarna’s bids ‘by any means’.
These were tactics that one would usually associate with much-hailed Amit Shah. If Rahul Gandhi prepared his party’s strategy by “calculating the BJP’s next possible move”, as his aides claim, the election results would show whether the Congress president has it in him to out-think his BJP counterpart. We may get some indications Tuesday whether the grand old party of India would continue with its image makeover or revert to its old mould.
Winning all three states is a tantalising possibility. If that happens, that will have very little to do with temple visits and wearing the sacred thread. There is economic pain all around. The Congress will have to think about how it can deliver Achhe Din. That alone matters to voters.
Caste rules and secularism to dogs.