On the eve of his ongoing trip to Moscow, external affairs minister S Jaishankar charmed his audiences in India and Russia by pulling out – and tweeting – a pass from 1962 to a reception in Moscow’s Red Square that he attended as a seven-year-old schoolboy in honour of Soviet cosmonauts.
Sixty-one years later, much has obviously changed. Jaishankar is back, this time as a representative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has foregone for the second time a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The excitable school-boy has long given way to a measured diplomat at ease with the world’s most powerful leaders.
Indeed, Jaishankar is a trusted confidante of Modi, ready to look at foreign policy through the perspective of the Ramayana – just in time, no doubt, for the inauguration of a grand Ram temple in Ayodhya later in January 2024.
What is, indeed, interesting is that the foreign minister is spending five days in Russia’s greatest cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, meeting a variety of ministers, intellectuals, strategic analysts as well as the Indian community. Some of it is a study in contrast.
Navigating ‘exceptional’ ties
On Christmas Day, Jaishankar met with members of the strategic community where he spoke about the “importance of rebalancing and the emergence of multipolarity.” The Russian analysts must have smiled inwardly. Whatever did the Indian foreign minister mean by the “emergence of multipolarity,” they might have thought, considering the world has been multipolar for several decades now, especially with the decline of the United States, the reassertion of Russia and the growing dominance of China.
Then there was his meeting with his fellow Indians Tuesday, where he started off by asking if any of them had lived in Russia for more than 30 years. Even he seemed surprised when more than a few nodded their heads. But Jaishankar was making another point, even as he warmly paid tribute to the “exceptional” nature of the relationship that had stood the test of time, sort of.
The external affairs minister pointed out that in 1992, that is just over 30 years ago when the Soviet Union broke up, India’s GDP was a lowly $270 billion, while Russia’s was $518 billion. In 2022, Jaishankar added, Russia’s GDP was $2.4 trillion, while India’s was $3.2 trillion. Clearly, India had grown by leaps and bounds, while Russia’s power had diminished.
So why was the foreign minister being deliberately disingenuous, considering Russia not just continues to be a veto-wielding Security Council power, but also a country that has held off Ukraine — which has been backed by the US and large parts of the Western world – for the last year-and-a-half.
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Ukraine vulnerability
In fact, the geopolitical rumour is that the war over Ukraine is likely to come to an end sooner than later and that the Russians are already preparing to supervise the spoils. With the US fully backing the Israelis in its war against Hamas, in which more than 20,000 Palestinians have been killed in the last two months, Ukraine isn’t getting any more serious aid from the Americans.
What that means is that Ukraine has been left high and dry by its closest friends and supporters, enabling Russia to win the day. Jaishankar, a past master at the Realist school, surely recognises that fact.
That is one key reason why Jaishankar is spending 5 days with the Russians – which is, that Russia has been battered by the war in Ukraine, but hasn’t given up. That strength comes from a straight-talking leadership as well as a military-industrial complex that is geared towards war, unfortunately not peace.
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Changing global dynamics
Second, as the US goes into relative decline – and President Joe Biden turns down the invitation to come to the Republic Day celebrations for no ostensible real reason – there exists some resentment in New Delhi at the casual manner in which the Americans cancelled. After all, did the Democrats just realise that 2024 is an election year and that Biden, already trailing at the polls, should not have cancelled on a more than friendly country?
All this doesn’t warm India even more in the direction of the Russians – but it helps.
Third, Jaishankar has surely come to realise that the Russians are hardly a “junior partner” of the Chinese, a phrase much used in Central Asia, where Russia and China struggle for influence.
Fact is that Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping can meet and embrace all they want, but Xi realises that he cannot antagonise the Americans beyond a point; that he needs them to buy, buy, buy from China and help shore up its economy.
This is such an obvious fact that it’s a wonder it has been overlooked in several world capitals – including sometimes, in Delhi.
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‘Rebalancing ties’
But Xi knows that Putin knows why he and the Americans will continue to talk about trying to “rebalance” their economic relationship. Whether or not the Americans like their continuing economic dependence on China is not the point – they certainly don’t – but because of it, they have to continue to make nice to Beijing.
Putin can see that. Xi also knows that Putin can see that.
So if Putin and Russia are not really a junior partner of the Chinese, what does that mean to Delhi? Surely Jaishankar understands the obvious conclusion – with America going into decline, and China continuing to be its key antagonist, perhaps India can look at Russia as a partner to ward off the Chinese?
Is this what Jaishankar meant by “rebalancing” that he spoke about a couple of days ago with Russian strategic thinkers?
Of course, Jaishankar was also pointing to how India has been “rebalancing” its own foreign policy. How it has dexterously played both the US and Russia these past years – the best example being India’s decision to continue to buy cheap oil from Russia after the latter invaded Ukraine and the West slapped sanctions on Moscow.
Certainly, Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow is turning out to be interesting. The fact that India is paying serious attention to Russia again is a vindication, as the foreign minister pointed out, of the “care” that several generations of leaders have taken to help keep the relationship on an even keel.
Jaishankar didn’t allude to the Nehru years or the Indira Gandhi years or later or in between. Those names aren’t palatable in Delhi these days. Everyone knows that.
No doubt Jaishankar will return from Moscow and pursue the idea of Biden coming to India another time. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron is showing up for India’s Republic Day celebrations at short notice.
Perhaps that’s what “rebalancing” means. Another word, not so popular anymore is “non-alignment,” which is fine. Each era and every leader must find its own jargon to explain itself. As Modi’s chief explainer to the world, Jaishankar is only trying to hit the sweet spot, as he aims to straddle the continents. It’s certainly a worthwhile endeavour.
Jyoti Malhotra is founder-editor of Awaaz South Asia web platform. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)