Looming on the horizon is the question of what comes after Xi Jinping. Answering this question is more complex than merely attributing a lack of willingness to step down on his part. The media narrative about Xi’s consolidation of power misses the point that stepping down as the General Secretary may not be as simple as relinquishing control.
Chinese history is riddled with the rise and fall of dynasties, the latter often resulting from failure to find a successor. Since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the issue of succession has been the core theatrics that has caused many purges – with former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping being purged twice.
The weight of power in China is heavy; past dynasties had suffered when ruling leaders failed to ensure a smooth transition of power. Xi will feel the exact weight of history in the coming years.
“For Xi, this is a mystery by design. Few people, if anyone, and possibly not even Xi himself, know how long he wants to stay in power,” writes Chun Han Wong in his new book Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future.
Deng established a ‘collective leadership’ model to manage power-sharing within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but he ousted his protégé, Zhao Ziyang. Collective leadership was a loose model that ensured other members of the Politburo Standing Committee could check the power of the General Secretary. Xi did away with this collective leadership, replacing it with a personality cult that now drives the bureaucracy.
Despite the collective leadership model, past leaders have used their powers to extend their authority beyond the set limit.
Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, constrained by the age limit of 70 years, had to step down as the General Secretary in 2002. But Jiang managed to both install his allies on the Politburo Standing Committee and remain in charge of the Central Military Commission, writes Willy Wo-Lap Lam in his classic book, Chinese Politics in the Era of Xi Jinping: Renaissance, Reform, or Retrogression?
Jiang ensured he could maintain his clout beyond his term in office by keeping his grip tight on the institutions when slowly promoting his successor. Xi could potentially attempt the feat achieved by Jiang, but the circumstances of the Xi era – extreme consolidation of power – are very different. That’s why the likelihood of power struggle grows.
Also read: Xi wanted to meet Zelenskyy, Modi beat him to it. ‘Opportunist’ jibe is China’s frustration
China’s historical power tussles
Some Chinese historians, such as James Ferguson and Rosita Dellios, argue that power transition is a problem extending way back in time.
A mix of succession practices was tried during the Qing Dynasty era. The Manchu and Mongol dynasties in China followed the practice of letting the successor compete for the throne – sometimes even by drawing each other’s blood. Nurhaci, the Jurchen leader who would go on to establish the Qing Dynasty, left the question of succession to his sons, who would have to fight among each other for the royal throne. Jurchen’s method of picking a successor resulted in bloody wars until a leader fought his way to the throne.
The Han rulers preferred selecting the eldest of the progeny to succeed, but that resulted in impotent rulers in the past. The Qing emperors tried to mix the practice of the Han and Manchu people by developing a secret selection process.
The Yongzheng Emperor found a solution to the problem. He left the name of his heir in a secret ballot box to be opened after his death. The successor picked through the secretive process was the Qianlong Emperor, who became China’s longest-serving monarch with de-facto power despite abdicating the throne earlier out of filial piety toward his grandfather, the Kangxi Emperor.
We can’t say that China’s long history doesn’t affect the CCP today. Xi is said to take lessons from history, and is fond of Chinese philosopher Han Fei’s legalism and other philosophies of statecraft.
Much like Yongzheng, Xi might very well be mulling the names of his potential successor, but the shifting ground of domestic and international politics would keep him reworking the names for the years to come.
Xi’s only blood-related progeny is his Harvard-educated daughter Xi Mingze, and there is no sign that he is preparing her to step into his shoes. Survival of a female leader is tough in the world of Chinese elite politics, and there are no signs Xi preparing to establish a personal dictatorship by getting his daughter ready for the role.
Also read: Education, language, politics — Xi Jinping wants Central Asia to depend on China, not Russia
What would Xi’s ally look like?
Picking a successor won’t be an easy task for Xi. He would need to find someone to ensure his safety after he steps down.
Deng’s guardrails, introduced to avoid the bloody power struggle seen during and after Mao Zedong, could be somewhat avoided through collective leadership.
Xi’s colleagues on the Politburo Standing Committee will likely start forming groups to back a leader if no clear successor emerges. The in-fighting that would arise from this tug-of-war may erupt five to 10 years down the line, but it would surely keep many on the edge of their seat.
Xi will look for an ally committed to his safety beyond his reign in power. Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was purged by Mao, and Xi’s struggles during that era informed his choice.
Global audiences paying attention to a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait often forget the internal turmoil that plagued Chinese history whenever power transitions went wrong. The world may want to pay equal attention to the political turmoil resulting from a bungled transfer of reins from Xi to another leader in the coming years.
Climbing up the ladder of Chinese politics may be easy for Xi, but stepping down from the personality cult wouldn’t be. The tide of Chinese history has swept many rulers, after all.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He is currently a MOFA Taiwan Fellow based in Taipei and tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)