The situation along the Line of Actual Control is tactical, but the intent of both sides is strategic, as it should be. The ultimate political aim of any conflict between nations is lasting peace on own terms. However, the issue is relative, as lasting peace in competitive conflict among nations remains a utopia. Military is only the means to achieve this end and always the last resort.
China has precipitated the situation along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh by preemptively securing/threatening previously un-occupied, but patrolled, tactical areas with strategic importance in the Galwan River Valley, Hot Spring-Gogra-Kongka La area and north of Pangong Tso. Having seized the initiative, China has put the onus on India to respond, on which will depend Beijing’s future course of political and military action. China has come prepared for escalation to achieve its strategic aim.
India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are at stake. Militarily, India has contained the Chinese intrusions and poised its forces to deal with the developing situation. Its future course of action, particularly with respect to use of military means, will also depend on the political aim it has defined for itself.
The unfortunate events on the intervening night of 15 and 16 June have forced the adversaries to take fresh stock of the situation. China, the initiator and aggressor of the conflict, has realised that if the ‘fist and club fight’ was so violent and barbarous, what it would be like in an armed conflict/war with India’s Army of today. The stage is set for a military disengagement to tactically separate the rival forces and pave way for the diplomatic negotiations to settle larger strategic issues. If diplomacy fails, military means for either side would be the last resort to achieve political aims.
Also read: Fresh satellite images from Galwan and Depsang raise concerns of Chinese troop build-up
Tactical military situation
In the Galwan Valley, post the 15-16 June incident, there seems to be no presence left of China’s People’s Liberation Army or the PLA, as is distinct from the heights to the north and south. One does not know the exact details of what was agreed to after the first round of Corps Commander-level talks on 6 June, or what has since been modified during the second round on 22 June. At what distance from the LAC are the troops of both the countries going to remain deployed is not known. In mountains or high-altitude areas, the battle is for the control of the heights. Valley is used for logistics and movement of vehicles, but has to be defended to avoid being cut off. Thus, what has happened in the Valley so far is a sideshow. If the PLA is not holding the heights to the north and south, then we should be holding them. Without control of the heights, the Valley cannot be defended.
In the Hot Springs-Gogra-Kongka La area, the situation remains unchanged. We cannot patrol up to Kongka La, and the area between Kongka La and Gogra Post seems to be under the control of the PLA.
The situation North of Pangong Tso is in the open domain due to satellite images available on OSINT platforms. The area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 (5.6 km as the crow flies and 8 km when measured along the banks of Pangong Tso) is still firmly under PLA’s control. Military infrastructure and defences have been constructed on ridges going north, along Fingers 4, 5 and 6, up to 5 km. Thus, approximately 40 sq km of our area where we patrolled effectively prior to April is now under PLA control.
Elsewhere, all along the LAC, India and China have mobilised and carried out precautionary deployment to cater to any escalation.
It is beyond my comprehension as to why we are still in denial about the situation. If the assessment of OSINT is wrong, then there is a simple solution to counter claims of PLA incursions—take the press to these spots in helicopters and show them the reality.
Chinese actions are strategic in intent and tactical in execution, and aim to create an embarrassing situation for India, daring it to respond. Depending on the diplomatic and military response from India, PLA’s military means will be calibrated to achieve China’s military aim.
Also read: How Indian troops chased the Chinese for a kilometre over LAC in Galwan on 15 June night
Political aim of China
China is very sensitive to any threat to Aksai Chin, which it gradually occupied in 1950s, and other areas to its west and south that it captured in the 1962 war with India to gain strategic depth. India’s fast-developing border infrastructure in eastern Ladakh does exactly that, howsoever remote the possibility may seem to be at this juncture. Gaining additional territory is not China’s aim per se.
China perceives that by threatening to recapture Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan, India is posing a threat to its prestigious economic project — the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor or the CPEC. Indirectly, China desires a similar relationship between India and Pakistan as was prevailing with itself since 1990s. That is, relative peace on border and focus on economic relations.
India’s asylum to Dalai Lama in 1959 and the perceived training of Tibetan ‘rebels’ in conjunction with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was a major factor that led to the 1962 war. The presence of the Dalai Lama in India, the Tibetan government in exile and 10,000 to 15,000 Tibetan soldiers trained as special forces is considered by China to be the most serious potential threat to its sovereignty. India is seen as the principal instigator of the Tibetan struggle for freedom.
China also perceives that India is colluding with the US and its allies to undermine its strategic interests in the international arena, in general, and South China Sea and Indo-Pacific, in particular.
The political aim or idealistic strategic wish list of China would be on the following lines:
- To maintain the ‘status quo’ with respect to border infrastructure along the LAC on its own terms — to forestall any threat, howsoever remote, to Aksai Chin and NH 219.
- To prevent any threat developing to the CPEC by brokering a peace deal between India and Pakistan.
- Coax India to join Belt and Road Initiative, in general, and CPEC, in particular.
- Coax India to refrain from colluding with the USand its allies to undermine China’s strategic interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea.
In a nutshell, China wants India to play the role of a cooperative junior partner and not that of a competitor, both regionally and globally. To what extent it can achieve the aims highlighted above will depend on its diplomatic skills and how it uses its military to enforce its will. If its broad political aim is achieved, then it will restore status quo ante April 2020, and agree to demarcate the LAC, subject to final boundary settlement.
Also read: Asia lost a decade to counter China. But India and Quad can lead new strategy now
India’s political aim
The broad contours of India’s political aims should be as follows:
- Retain its sovereignty and territorial integrity and strategic independence as an equal competitor to China,both regionally and globally.
- Restore status quo ante April 2020 with respect to the LAC and ensure its demarcation.
- Retain freedom to develop border infrastructure as it deems fit.
- Retain its claim over PoK, Gilgit-Baltistan under occupation of Pakistan, and Aksai Chin and other areas seized by China since 1950.
- Continue to highlight the illegality of theCPEC, since it passes through territory that rightfully belongs to India.
Ideally, a military setback for China in a limited conflict enables India to achieve its political aim in its entirety. However, the differential in comprehensive national power, particularly in economic and military domains, is in favour of China. We have the military capability to calibrate our response to stalemate China, but a setback will set us behind by decades.
The challenge before the Narendra Modi government is to skillfully manage its diplomacy and military means to achieve its political aims.
Also read: Want to help Indian soldiers at LAC? Stop spreading assumptions about Galwan clash
India’s management of the current crisis
India is facing a strategic dilemma. I have no quarrel with the narrative— ‘nothing has happened on the LAC, no territory has been lost’—except that the government shouldn’t itself start believing this narrative as it also serves the Chinese narrative.
A seasoned political leader once told me that politicians have one major weakness—they repeat a lie so many times to shape public perception that after a point in time they themselves start believing in that lie.
One presumes that the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) and the National Security Council (NSC) have formally met and a national security strategy in consultation with the Chief of Defence Staff has been formulated to handle the situation. But, doubts assail me when I hear—“armed forces have been given full freedom of action”. Armed forces are given a formal political directive based on the decision made in the CCS and NSC to achieve the political aims and not a rhetoric one liner.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post-retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
I know this article was written in THE PRINT by Lt. Gen. PANAG on the 25th June 2020, presumably believing and hoping that China would gobble up Ladakh or at least as he says to show who the big brother is. In the hindsight, does Panag and The Print realize who the big brother is, now? Plain wishful thinking promoting individual agendas over the wishes, belief and prayers of 135 crore Indians. Let me assure Panag that the days of retired senior generals doubling up as middlemen in multi billion defences deals with foreign countries is OVER. So don’t bite more than you can chew. Maybe Gul having failed as an actress tried the same thing by agreeing to be a loser in the elections when she signed up with AAP. Maybe it runs in the family and even 40 years of serving in the most disciplined and professional institution couldn’t change the mindset of the ever hungry wolf. As for The Print, keep up the good work. The more you write cacophonous stories, the more exposed you get in the public, which gives you diametrically opposite results to those you had perceived when you started this endeavour as an off shoot of NDTV.
Shameful!! Such a mole we had in our army for 40 yrs that’s why country army moral was so low !! I wish there should have been some machine to filter and tag such bastards and cowards calling themselves as star general of proud Indian army.
Shame on you ! Spit on your face
Puppet of China and Pakistan
Nonsense! Idiot what you have done in all those 40 yrs in Indian Army
It’s pretty narrow minded and ridiculous that these stupid commentators who have no proper info and have not done any sort of research, going on calling names and blaming the lt general who had decades of experience with the subject matter. Put aside your political and nationalistic attitudes and try to ascertain what actually might be happening and makes sense. Grabbing puny areas doesn’t make any sense economically. So the only reasoning is to intimidate and threaten that if u don’t co-operate, i can hit you where it hurts. Besides the article also mentions what india should plan for, which is pretty on point. Stop your bickering and criticize objectively with facts and proper info.
When your hatred for a party become priority over sovereignty of India you write these type of articles.and..surprisingly from a ex general of army.
The writer is living in a dreamland. The world should see the writings on the wall. The China is repeating what Germany under Hitler did in nineteen thirties, by claiming lands of neighbors and occupying by force. But with times, the tactics are changed. While Hitler occupied in one go, Chinese are moving forward inch by inch and retreating if situation demands. So instead of giving virtual theories of China’s intentions, we and other should strengthen our military mights and expose the fifth columnists of China among our media, intellectuals and politicians.
Cunning China proved to be matured when it invested in poor neighbours and established economical empire surrounding India, while we were busy on TV debate abt Media trail on sensitive issues above Judiciary, and we watched the elected state govt toppling with horse trading, we were silent on social division by few of so called bhkts and thus failed to realise real threat now we try to solve problems through diplomacy and 56 inches roaring all gone in air useless
As you know so much, you must also be knowing exact casualty from Chinese side. Reveal the details instead of speculating.
The basis of China’s war with India is rooted in seeking revenge for the brutal putting down of the Boxer Rebellion (the last days of the Qing dynasty under the Dowager Empress Ci Xi) by the Indian Army which raped, pillaged and looted under British command. China wants to efface the memory of this humiliation to its own satisfaction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion
Thanks to 73 years of Government sans Governance, India is the softest target among those who humiliated China then (British Empire, Russia, Japan, France, German Empire, US, Italy, Austria-Hungary, Netherlands Belgium, Spain, and the Mutual Protectorate of South East China). This eight Nation alliance was, essentially, fighting a war to impose Christianity and as regards the Non Christian Nations (Japan, South East China), their rights to loot China with impunity .
The Chinese Emperor Qing and the Boxers (martial artists) had defeated this eight nation alliance when, in 1901, the British Empire fielded 20, 000 Indian soldiers who broke the back of the Chinese leading to the most humiliating terms including the mass execution of all Chinese officials who had backed or were suspected of backing the martial artists.
It is gathering momentum now as India has been growing weaker day by day under the burden of its suicidal policies constructed by those who succeeded the British while China is growing stronger and stronger.India is ruled by a Politician-Bureaucrat Nexus that has no knowledge of anything beyond redistributing wealth by stealing from some for the benefit of others mainly the politicians, bureaucrats, judges, police and preferred vote banks. As behooves traditional bullies who have looted, plundered and raped helpless Indians for Seventy Three Years they are nonplussed when they face an armed enemy and prefer to pretend that such an enemy does not exist.
In this very altercation, for example, Chinese troops circumvented the India China border treaties entered into by Rajiv Gandhi and Deve Gowda to not use guns within two miles of the LAC by attacking Indian soldiers with wooden clubs studded with sharp points (spiked maces). In retaliation, Indian Army is now fabricating similar maces! How absurd, India could go for a non cordite arms race with bows and arrows, catapults, or javelins, but, why all this? Now that China has abrogated the spirit of the treaties, why not simply start patrolling with weapons and respond with fire power?
But India is weak, China is powerful.
India’s Government has always been an “Uthara Kumara” since 1947 which boasts within the country, bullies and robs for the benefit of the powerful but tucks its tails between it legs and runs for good for nothing cover under other countries when under serious threat.
India’s rulers have been unfit to rule right from 1947 to 2020 so it is that we have a “Government”inherited from the British designed to keep Indians subservient, importing goods, exporting wealth under a dispensation of “Divide to Rule” which steals from some for the benefits of others under various pretexts.
India’s civilians, with rare exceptions, are cowards. This is why they have suffered the loot, rape and plunder by India’s Kleptocrats under the Moslems, the East India Company, the British and the post 1947 Christian, Moslem, Communist, WOG*, Gandhi, Nehru, Ambedkar, Naiker (PANGOLIN*) consensus which has plundered India without serious violent revolt.
China (Communism) and Pakistan (Islam) covet all of India. But plan to take it slice by slice and with a thousand cuts. Mahomet (who was a camel driver) speaks of this in the story of the camel and the tent which became a central tenet of the desert bandit cult called islam. First the camel puts its head inside Mahomet’s tent, then little by little the camel works its way into the tent and Mahomet has to sleep outside.
Nehru sacrificed Tibet to Mao hoping this would appease China. Mao then described Tibet as the palm of his hand reaching out for all of India and and the Indian territories of Ladakh, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal and Arunachal Pradesh as the five fingers of the palm. This is the basis of the Communist Party’s claim on all of India and like Mao, China follows the teachings of Sun Tsu. Islam however claims all of India on the basis of Quran and Hadith.
So, India yielding even an inch of territory to the enemy is merely an incentive for the enemy to take more.
The Government orphans the armed forces and National Security just as it orphans citizens not on Bureaucratic, Police, Judicial and Political service or pay roll: Out of sight out of mind?
Every time there is an opportunity which the Chinese see, the Chinese come further into Indian territory. This is like moving forward towards the goal in Rugby or American football.’
Apart from on going fluid opportunities due to lack of border infrastructure for the Indian Armed Forces, the Indian Army presented the Chinese with two significant opportunities, which they took advantage of.
(1) During Kargil, the Indian soldiers were moved from their positions at Daulat Beg Oldie to reinforce the forces taking on Pakistan’s Norther nLight infantry in Kargil Heights. Kargil was a classic example of Indian failure in intelligence, logistics, military command and control as well as political leadership. In effect, the Pakis had moved into the heights and entrenched themselves when the Indian Army moved down during winter. Just as the Chinese did when the Indian Army moved from Pangong Lake (Daulat Beg Oldie) to Kargil. And India had to retake what was originally its own at enormous cost of Indian blood and lives owing to poor preparation, lack of ammunition, lack of reliable and appropriate equipment and weaponry, lack of co-ordination and laughable, unrealistic “Charge of the Light Brigade” Brass Hat commands, totally divorced from the reality on the ground or the methods of 20th Century warfare..
(2) Owing to the lack of proper high altitude winter equipment, the Indian Army again moved to lower slopes more recently vacating territory which the Chinese quickly occupied.
In both cases, the buck stops at the table of the politicians and bureaucrats at Delhi who constrain the Army into having to cope with what they have and carrying out orders issued with scant understanding of warfare or operational command. This the Government does not want exposed.
The Indian Army on returning to these heights in fairer weather resume patrolling in India’s side of the LAC only to find themselves challenged by the Chinese who are now in occupation leading to these tussles.
There is also the pathetic faith of India’s “diplomats”, “bureaucrats” and “politicians” that foreign powers are more honest than themselves and will adhere to promises, agreements and treaties more faithfully than they themselves do. Hence, there is an excessive faith in diplomacy and that China will adhere to what was the agreed Line of Actual Control rather than in building, refining and applying Indian hard power.
In this witches’ brew, the cover up by India’s ruling class of their blunders lulls them into a state of self hypnosis or delusion which prevents them from learning the lessons of History. Particularly Indian military History which these blundering incompetent and corrupt wielders of power have buried.
For just one example, the Henderson Brooks Report on India’s 1962 debacle has been covered up from Nehru to Modi, precisely because the Government is incapable of undoing the Himalayan blunder and taking back the strategic territories lost to China that will be demanded by public pressure when the public learn the full facts of the matter.
What a load of nonsense. You know nothing about these corona bat eating yellow Peking man! They are imperialistic thugs who will lie, cheat, stab in your back. I am not interested in any agreement with them. I am interested in only giving the yellow men a bloody nose
I agree with Hartej,
Panag’s is a very narrow view. He should look around to see what China is doing to its neighbours, Then perhaps Panag’s views will broaden.
I want to give an alternative. If we propose to China that we accept the CPEC corridor and participate in it, provided you accept our sovereign control over this area of POK. China will sideline Pakistan and run the road and we get the administrative and territorial control over POK.
Pakistan is our enemy buy China is betrayal country. Should never trust them.
We should just listen to India today and whoever praises Modi.If anyone disagrees with us we should blame them for interior motives or political witch hunting. if someone questions the army or Govt, we should call them traitors. Modi has destroyed India’s soft image.
Shame on us for treating our minorities the way we did for last 4 years.
What if China wants India to officially forgo its claim on Aksai Chin and Gigit-Baltistan? Obviously, India will not concede, unless it gets defeated in an all-out war and this seems to be quite remote possibility. Thus, the stand-off continues indefinitely. How long it can go on ? China has to gain something tangible from the exercise and that tangible could not be obviously impossible for India to concede. Furthermore, an ambiguous unspecified objective such as showing ‘ who is the big brother’ too doesn’t fit. How big brotherly status can be established unless India gets defeated just as in 1962.? Thus, we cannot simply presume that the current stand-off is just an empty gimmick and will not lead to war-like situation. Chinese motive is not clear till now, though it clear that we should be prepared to face any eventuality, even a violent war. But one thing is certain, India should not get provoked to act in an intemperate and impulsive manner. This could well be the motive – to tempt India to act irrationally and then to pass on the entire blame on India.
It’s quite clear that the infamous IT cell is targeting the decorated and well respected Lt General, since he doesn’t mince his words in calling out strategic missteps and the need for course correction by the Govt of India. It will be better for India for the govt to pay heed to the sound advice to be able to handle China in right way. However, given the track record of the govt in handling respected and highly competent professionals like Dr Arvind and Dr Rajan, it’s quite unlikely that the wish will fructify. Most likely the top leadership will continue with its Superman syndrome.
The problem is not with the content here by mr. Panag. The problem is with the headline given to this article by print media which is again with the intention to demean India & helping their Chinese sponsored to play psychological war with India. Thanks to social media, all these paid media houses are now being exposed.
PVSM and AVSM! Not your Mohalla level bravery awards!! A million of IT cell troll army keyboard warriors quoting copy-paste talking points like Mir Jaffar etc. given by their political handlers, are no patch to the distinguished General.
You guys, when you go and lie down on your bed in the night , try to feel a bit ashamed of your acts of trolling in the name of patriotism for sale.
We know you work for the dirty IT cell of The Print posing as a casual reader…..hahaha.
We all are suffering because of Chinese Gandhi
This time it asssumes, Narendar Modi as Chicha Nehru.
General Sahab, read the Indrani Bagchi’s article in TOI
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-occupies-nepal-village-land-deafening-silence-from-oli-govt/articleshow/76539082.cms
This ARTICLE IS FOR ALL THOSE Who are FAVOURING this content of Lt. Panag retd.
China is occupying Nepal as well now. Tell me what reasons u made for these. Keep making to defend your boss to fund you. If China is so good, then why it needs Nepal, Myanmar, Ladakh, Hong Kong, South. China Sea and Taiwan…. List goes on…. Can u Mr. Retd LT and their supporters answer please.
Author has not minced his words and put the picture clear in the open. Sympathize with those who cannot perceive the ground In between Strategy and Tactics. Chinese have flipped the LAC to suit their designs. Laid claims to more territory since the 50’s. They have on purpose kept the LAC delimited.
India has to build up matching force levels.
Sit on the heights and deny the valleys to the Chinese.
India should not worry. Our 8th fail will transmit a 6 hour bhashan in Mandarian language, which will be aired live on fb and satellite tv of china.
It is guaranteed that half of chinese people will do sucide on hearing idiotic bhaiyo aur behno for 14000 times in 6 hours of bakwas.
India will capture Beijing, next day.
This article by General Panag is extremely important as to my knowledge for the first time General Panag has mentioned some facts of which the general public is totally ignorant.
In Genaral Panag’s words”India’s asylum to Dalai Lama in 1959 and the perceived training of Tibetan ‘rebels’ in conjunction with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was a major factor that led to the 1962 war. The presence of the Dalai Lama in India, the Tibetan government in exile and 10,000 to 15,000 Tibetan soldiers trained as special forces is considered by China to be the most serious potential threat to its sovereignty. India is seen as the principal instigator of the Tibetan struggle for freedom.”
From the above it is clear that even now India has 10,000 to 15,000 Tibetan soldiers trained as special forces. This puts the current events on the LAC and mcmahon line in a completely different perspective and indicates that matters are much more serious than most people think.
China is changing its tune after the June 15 clash impact. PLA has realised it has barked on the wrong tree. India will act as per its own plan at a time & place of its choosing. Author is still thinking in the classical/ traditional point of view of territory gained or lost can never perceive the non linear approaches to be considered in multiple domains of warfare. China has forced India to change its priorities at the time of Chinese virus pandemic, but now worried about its consequences it has to face from IOR, SCS & ECS. India getting direct support from US and covert support from Russia has forced China to think twice before any more aggression as next time it may be too late to get a face saving opportunity from India.
Why do I always find something discordant in the writings of Lt.Gen Panag? Do I have jaundiced eyes? He seems to think that India can do nothing right, and keeps stressing on the smaller capabilities and resources of India as against China. We don’t need a retired general to tell the country that.
Anyway, if one were to compare the objectives of China and India as listed by the writer, the list of China’s objectives shows that China wants to browbeat India, another soverign country. Whereas, the list of objectives of India shows that India seeks to secure its interests, including its territories under others’ occupation. Now, tell us Genera! who is being aggressive?