Two weeks ago, I wrote on why I was not excited about the Bihar election. The first response came from Rama Lakshmi, Opinion Editor at The Print, as she read the article: “Must have been quite painful to write this, as a psephologist. It almost sounds like a divorce.” But not many others noticed the argument I was trying to advance. Everyone else I knew was excited about the Bihar polls.
I had made three points. One, Bihar is no longer the epicentre of north Indian politics. Two, state elections are no longer the principal arena for shaping the national mood. Three, elections are no longer pivotal to politics. Now that it’s done and dusted, it is time to revisit and revise the proposition.
Not the epicentre of North
How much did this election reflect what is happening or may happen in the rest of north India? Not much. For one, the party system of Bihar is more fragmented than the rest of the Hindi belt. While most other states have bipolar or tri-polar contests, the highest vote-getter in Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), secured just 23.11 per cent votes. Second, politics is not played around the rural-urban divide here. The result brings out the significance of political regions within the state: Bhojpur and Magadh went with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) while Seemanchal and Mithila backed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). But these regions do not reflect any pattern that may throw light on any other state. Finally, the OBC configuration that made Bihar the epicentre of Mandal politics has taken a unique direction. The unique placement of Kurmis, the absence of Dalit consolidation and the rise of extremely backward OBCs (or the EBCs) now make the caste sociology of Bihar politics very atypical.
There is one general lesson, though. This election in Bihar reaffirms the ineffectiveness of older political strategies to take on the hegemony of politics of Hindutva. If anything, Bihar points to a new model of how the dominance of upper castes may be sustained in a post-Mandal era. It also confirms a trend towards Muslim exclusive politics, exemplified by the success of the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the Muslim dominant region bordering West Bengal. The established ‘secular’ practice of mobilising Muslim voters on religious lines has reached its limits. Muslims have started to become sick and tired of being used as hostage to this kind of secular politics.
Also read: Why I am not excited about Bihar election: Yogendra Yadav
Not a national verdict
To what extent can we infer national political mood from the outcome in Bihar? Again, very little, because state politics is no more the principal site of political contestation. The NDA had swept all but one seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, with a whopping vote share of 53.25 per cent. Despite winning the state election, the NDA vote share is down to 37.98 per cent, within one percentage point of the MGB. The NDA nearly lost this election.
Does this indicate popular disapproval of the Narendra Modi government? I am sure most of my political friends would have jumped to this conclusion if the MGB had touched the majority mark. Yet, there is little evidence to support such a reading. If anything, this election again attests to the continuing popularity of Prime Minister Modi. At the same time, it reminds us that even he cannot swing state elections any which way. The NDA edged past the majority mark, but not because of Modi. Nor is there any evidence of Article 370, Ram Mandir, or Sushant Singh Rajput being a factor. The fact is that state politics and national politics have diverged.
While TV anchors persist with the old habit of reading national trends in each state elections, the voters have started treating both these levels differently.
Also read: Despite the sweet victory, Modi-Shah BJP has a Nitish Kumar-sized problem in Bihar
Detached from politics
Finally, how much do elections tell us about politics in this new era? We in India are used to elections being the carnival of democracy, the most happening place in the national political life. It has been at once the site of gauging public mood, framing public policy, forging social coalitions and the moment of course correction of the nation’s collective journey. I have often compared Indian elections to an over-crowded bridge that carries too much load that should have been carried by other democratic institutions. Elections have been one of the few functioning mechanisms through which democracy was kept alive in India.
This is no longer the case. As we move towards an electoral authoritarianism, the function of elections is undergoing a crucial shift. Autonomous constitutional authorities, including the judiciary, are now more or less aligned to the demands of the Modi era. Institutions like Parliament have been reduced to a mere formality. Mainstream media is subservient, more so than before due to over-dependence on government patronage in the Covid economy. Any form of protest has been made so costly – just witness the continuing witch-hunt of anti-CAA protesters or that of independent journalists – that only the exceptionally courageous would take it up. That leaves elections as the only legitimate site of political contestation. The Modi government is happy to let that be, even if it means occasional reverses for the ruling party, as long as elections can be detached from larger issues of politics.
Also read: Bihar results show BJP is getting closer to its last bastion in Hindi belt
The hollow elections
Just step back and take another look at the Bihar election. This was the first election after the mishandling of coronavirus pandemic and the harshest possible lockdown, sharpest ever shrinkage of national economy and largest Chinese occupation of our territory since 1962. Bihar suffered all the three, more than the rest of the country. The largest contingent of migrant workers walking back home was from Bihar. The state has suffered one of the worst employment crises. Bihar suffered more casualties in the avoidable clubbing of our soldiers at the China border. Did you hear any resonance of these issues in the recently concluded elections? This was the first election after the most wide-ranging changes in labour and farm laws. Were these even debated? Democratic elections have been known to be notoriously ineffective in addressing deep structural issues like poverty or lack of education or health infrastructure. But now we have elections that do not address the most visible and pressing issues of the time.
Once an election is emptied of political significance, detached from the real issues affecting the lives of millions, it becomes a lovely ritual that deludes us into believing that we are practicing democracy. We spend hours and hours discussing how Nitish Kumar was cut to size, whether it was a mistake to allocate 70 seats to the Congress, if it was fatal to allow Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahni to walk out of MGB…
And then we switch to the IPL final.
The author is the national president of Swaraj India. Views are personal.
Trumpism has dawned and affected some of the honorable journalists and writers of India. Like Mr. Trump they are not conceding defeat of their sponsors. Defeat is defeat and only Defeat , nothing more , nothing less , inflicted by the voters of Bihar on beneficiaries and white-washers of “JUNGAL-RAJ ” Start thinking like, What “COMMON MAN OF INDIA ‘ thinks and does .
Your surname denotes your opinion a Yadav will always support RJD country, state and development comes next. Why should anyone vote for RJD when its very founder has done a Chara Ghotala and is in the jail for the same. Do you know how many malls and property does Lalu Yadav’s family have? Do you know how many sugarcane mills owner, small industry owner and businessmen left the state during your Lalu & Rabri days due to extortion? Do you know about the days when people would accompany kids to school or bus stops so that they would not get kidnapped just before announcement of elections?
Do you know how Bihari became a derogatory term just because illiteracy, corruption and crime peaked during RJD days? Do you know who rooted for RJD Yadavs (because of caste politics 15 % of Bihar’s population), Muslims (because of BJP) and lafuas who think Mr Tejaswi Yadav will provide them with jobs.
If Mr Tejaswi Yadav would have provided jobs it would be for Yadavs as have happend during RJD days you can check employment factsheet during RJD term.
So take your opinion and shovel it somewhere inside you.
If NDA had lost it would have represented national sentiment. That is how skewed YY is. Who trusts such fake activists, not even activist AAP
Mr Yogendra Yadav,
If the results would have been the opposite i.e BJP losing and RJD winning. You must have claimed that this is reflection of people of all India.
You are such a bigot. In your hate of Modi, you keep all your good intelligence in cold storage. You are an intelectual terrorist driven by hate / anger and in the process getting blinded by the reality.
Get Well Soon !!
Salim bhai GHAZWA E HIND is not far away.
Print editorial team, where are your moderators?
Why can’t you move on Yadavji? There are many takeaways of national importance from Bihar election. The most prominent being the stubborn refusal of nation’s principal opposition party to offer an alternative leadership. By deluding its cadre and supporters that Pappuji is the best thing to have happened to this country, it is abdicating its role of ensuring a vibrant democracy and in some measure allowing BJP to run away with its authoritarian scheme of things as you and your ilk claim. In Bihar, Congress proved to be a dead weight. In fact people in Bihar elections saw the Congress BJP tussle as Modi v/s who else. The best away it could have helped the MGB was to throw weight behind Tejasvi and not try to seek its own pound of flesh.
But your lack of enthusiasm for elections in general is alarming. To the common people it is an expression of voice, approval or disapproval. It seems you are itching for anarchy in India. But you should remind yourself that though gradual and painstaking, reclaiming the other cogs of democracy should happen only through ballot.
Why yogendra yadav think people of Bihar had erred in rejecting Tejuva Babua. ? Consider following facts——-1 apart from having a long inning in politics, Nitish is a qualified Engineer academically , Tejuva babau is not eligible to apply for the post of L.D.C. in government department keeping in view his qualifications. . This facts was known to Bihar s common people but not to like s of Yogendera Yadav . 2. It was an election which was fought with very ferocity by both combatants groupings — NDA and MGB . In end strong party was chosen by the voters . By strong I mean to say– the party which will benefit more to people of Bihar in their collective wisdom. 3 . Both Nitishuva and Tejuva Babu has their God-Fathers who supported them— Nitishuva has blessing of MODI Ji and Tajusva Babua had blessing of R G from Delhi. Both had share of enemies, rather frenmies . N D A had Chiraguva and MGB had what is called– “Friend with benefits ” – beneficiary of large heart of Tejasawi– Who he/she was is well known. . 4 One thing more, — In the last phase of elections , people of Bihar were feeling threatened by the emergence of forces and ideology in Purvanchal and Uttranchal of Bihar which was responsible for partition of India . These are some reason not all. Forget what you were taught in JNU. World and India had moved on but it seems JNU s ex-scholars keep reading and reproducing notes prepared and in early sixties of the last century.
Yogendra Yadav thinks – what happens to him happens to the lives of all Indians. Librandus’ dreams are only dreams as they never try to understand others point of view – a characteristic of dictators.
ROFL ! you are heartbroken!
And if Bihar doesnot have anything to do with Indians what about the saffron sweep in other states bypolls? LOL
After Jinnah India did not have a pan India Muslim leader. Owaisi is filling up the gap. India will again be 200 million Muslims versus 1000 Hindus. It is not good for India.
I can feel the amount of butthurt YoYa has felt. So many factual errors in this answer.
Your statement seems to be right. I cannot believe he could be so low in intellect and intent that he could divide Indian soldiers on the line of state domicile. It indicates he is no more an independent rational political analyst but a simply hater of Modi and Hindus!
Mr. Yadav’s pain is at the MGB losing the Bihar elections is clearly visible.
He states that elections have lost their meaning. One wonders if that is the case simply because the NDA won? Or would he have made that statement even if the MGB had won?
Nevertheless, Nitish Kumar as a leader is certainly a million times better than Lalu’s sons – both of whom were born into privilege and enjoyed every possible comfort/luxury and yet have not been able to clear simple board exams despite multiple attempts.
One has to congratulate Biharis for voting wisely. Hope Nitish will keep up to his reputation of Susashan Kumar. Also, it is absolutely crucial that he mentors some young leaders to take over the reins in the next election. Otherwise, Lalu’s sons would be waiting on the edges to jump in and turn Bihar into a lawless state once again.
After reading the article, the seasoned Author should share the burden of explaining the reasons behind his (statement) remark “But now we have elections that do not address the most visible and pressing issues of the time”
Points for the electorate to reflect on. Who wins finally is but a reflection of the voters’ priorities after all. Why blame any parties.
Seculars lost the Bihar elections. Hence elections were not fought on the ‘ real’ issues.
It is staggering to look at how journalists keep pedaling narratives.
Mishandling of Pandemic? On what basis? Every country suffered in the world. In fact, considering India’s huge population and general disregard of health practices, it can be argued that the government dealt with the pandemic as effectively as it could have been hoped for.
Largest Chinese occupation of Indian territory? Again, on what basis? It is well documented that India lost a substantial chunk of territory during UPA government which was not publicised by the then government. In fact, it looks like we will be able push the Chinese troops back after the latest agreements.
National Institutions being aligned with demands of Modi era? What are those demands? And how is it being determined that the institutions do not function autonomously?
Some of the other points like Migrant crisis and unemployment are well made and generally acknowledged. This brings me to another assumption that Modi did not have much effect on this election. If, despite all these issues and anti incumbuncy, NDA has acieved a simple majority, it is only due to Modi and the way he campaigned.
In short, this article is full of narratives that simply don’t hold any water.
And oNe more point….
Yes after the elections end, one MUST switch to IPL, EPL or other avenues of entertainment rather than discuss who will win the next election; You see, in case you did not realise, in the interim, there is a State or Country to be Gioverned. Life is not only about politics, Modi, Rahul, Mamata, Yogendra et al.
Also, it is an opportunity for the Young Yadavs, Yadavs, Yadavs and Paswans to learn about running an administration from senior leaders.
Dukhi aatma tu dukhi hi rahega
One lesson from Bihar election is that ‘experts’ like Yogendra Yadav aka Salim have lost touch with what citizen feels and care about.
So what do you suggest? I read your essay on the third chapter in India’s democracy, where some version of authoritarianism is the norm. Is this how things are going to continue? If yes, what does future look like? Is there any hope?
A good analysis.Elections not only in Bihar, but also in the entire India have lost their relevance.People realise that whoever is voted to power they remain indifferent to their problems. They should come to the streets if they want to get their problems solved.
The solution of above lies when all so called political parties starts practice secularism.
There is a proverb – If I can’t dance blame he floor. If left wins then all elections are important and Indian people are awakening, there is revolution blah,blah. But if they lose, OH Indian voters are not interested in nation they are not sympathizing about anyone.
BJP/RSS is not afraid of defeat, because they are fighting with defeat for long time. Left easily spread out in India thanks to academics.
So as per you 4crores of Biharis are fools and you are only intelligent person
Yawn. Blah blah blah. A deeper yawn. No one cares for what you write, you pompous twit.
Came here to tell you that.
I suppose commentators like these, who owe allegiance to the corrupt relicts of the dynasty and their cronies reflect the reality of India? What a degree of arrogance!
hmmm
Yogendra Sir, grim situation for the ones who care, the elections have mostly become a ritual for re-election, the backward sections of the society are at the receiving end
Condolences for your huge loss 😂😂
A looser keeps ranting on allways
Well-written article although it has a defeated tone and the reader is faced with yet another hopelessness wave. Wish the author had also mentioned some solutions- I know the job to find solutions is on our leaders and not on columnists, but I say this out of desperation, and even now, some hope for my country to course-correct itself, for the general populace to wake up.
ShrivYadavji is discrediting elections, he is preparing ground work for a future where elections can be done away with and communist dictatorship can thus be justified, to carry on his agenda.
Angoor khatte hai….ha ha ha…
You continue to stick your head in the sand….
Yogender is a soar looser, he thinks he is expert in the political situation but he is always wrong… he lost his credibility as political analyst and now he expects people to believe his no-relevance analysis by saying that elections doesn’t matter because his preferred party did not win… BTW, his preference is Lalu’s Jungle raj… thukde thukde gang…
100% agree with you, Mr Yadav.
It is hard to fathom how much this state has suffered and the people still continue to flock to rallies. No protests, no agitation, only acceptance.
Chacha ab retire how jao.
Coupta Takle tum bhi Portal bund karlo.
The result of USA Elections are also Same. If it is Just Two Parties as in The Case of America. Here also results would have been same. No real answers
Isn’t what Yogedraji saysI a loser’s lament? If democratically held elections does not reflect what the people want, what will? Will the voice of a few random activists reflect the state of the Nation? Why don’t we accept a verdict and move on together towards development? I feel that “Leaders” like Yogendraji should know better and act better than proliferate only negativism. Dissent is also inbuilt in the system of franchise in a democracy. Dissent should not be used as a fashion statement.
The NDA almost lost this election … Consider the man for whom this formation is the principal political adversary. One that has promised to rid the country of his party. Doing a fairly decent job of delivering on that promise, going to the extent of toppling its state governments. Some elected back after a fourteen year long Vanvaas. Given 70 seats, invariably more than its legitimate share. After two days of exhausting campaigning, flops down with a tall cooling drink in Simla. Shapath vidhi hota toh zaroor aa jaate, occasion ko grace karne me liye. Would have insisted on PWD and Irrigation portfolios as well. Bhool gaye ki Belchi bhi Bihar mein hi hai.
A real loser if there was òne…Yogendra Yadav u have lost your mind…get a life
Grapes are very sour.
…Yogendra can see that next 3 years of his political life just being pushed down the drain by this verdict.