As Mao did to Nehru in 1959-62, Xi Jinping has thrown at Prime Minister Narendra Modi the biggest challenge in his public life. Over the next few days, weeks, months, and years, he will take decisions that determine the strategic fate of his nation. And his own political legacy.
Reading his mind is an act of daring. Over these six years, he has built a formidable reputation of delivering the most stunning surprises, without anybody having an inkling. Even on crucial strategic and foreign policy issues. Remember his sudden stopover in Pakistan on his way back from Kabul?
Gaming his responses over the Chinese provocations in Ladakh is complex, but there are pointers. So, for once, we can read the main question on his mind as he weighs strategy and politics. Simply put, he must respond, but not in a way that looks like Jawaharlal Nehru.
The politics and strategic, philosophical and ideological thought he and his ideological and political parents, RSS and BJP, have constructed is founded on not being like Nehru. The most important thing then is to “not repeat his waffling blunders”.
Xi Jinping has thrown the gauntlet at Modi at the moment of his choosing, just as Mao had done in 1962. The pressure on him is to respond immediately, in anger, and exasperation just to be seen to be doing something, as Nehru did. Translated: How to show fellow Indians and the world that you are not Nehru of 1962, without doing precisely what Nehru did under pressure in that fateful year.
Nehru took a decision (“I have told my army to throw out the Chinese”) that might have looked brave, but was divorced from reality. History has judged him harshly. Not as a brave, tough leader who “died” fighting, as politically and physically, he never recovered from that decision. He will forever be seen as a weakling who went to war against his conviction.
In 2020, Modi has many advantages. His political environment has no resemblance to Nehru’s, whose greatest critics were the nationalists within his cabinet. Modi has no such problem. The opposition is weak, Parliament is no threat and the armed forces are in an enormously better state, despite the PLA’s modernisation.
He, however, shares one weakness with Nehru: A larger than life public image, and a thin skin. That is what Xi has seen as an exposed flank. From Chumar to Doklam to Pulwama, the Chinese have noticed how vital a factor “face” is for Modi in his domestic politics. There is a compulsion to look hard, decisive, risk-taking, start something and then conclude it in a way you can claim victory. That is not such an easy option against China.
Also read: Modi’s foreign policy puts Modi first, India second
What motivated Xi to initiate this confrontation is not so relevant any more. It doesn’t matter because the Chinese are now at our doorstep. And the way they are digging in, hauling in heavy equipment, they look prepared for the long haul.
It takes Modi back to the dilemmas all his predecessors have faced. Is India fated by geography and history to endure a two-front situation? How can India change this? Can it reach out to either of the two and break out of the triangulation? If so, which one? And if it has no way out, or until it has a way out, can it still remain essentially non-aligned?
For clarity, if you give up that pretence and align with any big powers, you cannot also hold on to Cold War notions of strategic autonomy. Can you trade them for better security?
Every choice involves compromises. Modi has to pick one. Nehru junked his inflated notions of non-alignment and reached out to Kennedy’s America for help in 1962. Help came, and he permitted the Americans to even set up a military mission in New Delhi headed by a two-star general. This came at a price.
The Western powers dissuaded Pakistan from taking advantage of India’s predicament in October-November 1962, but in December, Sardar Swaran Singh was negotiating under duress with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto on Kashmir. This was in return for Western support. Swaran Singh stalled, and as Nehru declined, Kennedy was assassinated, and the American opportunity was gone. India swung Centre-Left again.
Indira Gandhi was sharper. In 1971, when the Bangladesh opportunity came, she knew she could only win if something could keep China off India’s back. She signed that Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union, which was a euphemism for a strategic alliance. It gave her those few weeks’ leeway to finish the war.
Also read: Rammanohar Lohia was right about China. And was neither jingoist nor idealist
A leader’s isn’t an easy place to be in. The substance of strategic and foreign policies is less pretty than the summits.
Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr Manmohan Singh grappled with the same challenge. None had the political capital Modi does. All made at least one effort to reach out to Pakistan and break that triangulation. We had recounted a prescient tutorial by Dr Manmohan Singh on how it was better for India to reach out to Pakistan for peace to deny China this low-cost strategic counterweight.
Narendra Modi too made a dramatic flourish with Nawaz Sharif and then gave up too soon. Pathankot, Gurdaspur and other betrayals happened for sure. But great leaders distinguish the tactical from the strategic. As things unfolded subsequently, he and his party built their politics on anti-Pakistanism. Terrorism became the pre-eminent strategic threat in our nationalist imagination. Pakistan-terror-Islam became the three prongs of the BJP’s electoral proposition.
Modi tried to break out of the same triangulation that his predecessors grappled with and failed. But he reached out to China instead, celebrating its leader, ignoring its provocations, welcoming its investments and looking the other way while the annual trade deficit grew to $60 billion. This, when his economic nationalism won’t let him sign even a tiny trade deal with the US.
The calculation was to give China a vested interest in peace with India. Xi has now shown that the world’s deputy superpower doesn’t weigh its strategic interest in trade surpluses. The idea of isolating Pakistan by reaching out to its allies, China on the east and the Arab world on the west, was creative and audacious. It failed as Xi won’t play ball.
Modi is back to the same three choices: Align with a big power, make peace with one of the two neighbours, or keep fighting on two fronts, in the manner of ekla cholo re. What about a combination of the first two?
The unipolar world is now over. As is non-alignment. China is the other pole, as the Soviet Union used to be. It has no incentive in settling its borders, not even delineating the LAC with you. Peace between two antagonists is only possible when the bigger power wants it. For India, Xi’s China isn’t that power.
So, the question: Can Modi swing back to where India is the stronger power that wants peace with Pakistan? Much as you may detest Pakistan, it is also more prone to global, especially Western, influence. Especially when it is an economic basket-case. There is also a shared global interest in moderating the nature of the Pakistani polity. It can’t happen overnight. But if you do set yourself on that course, it would necessitate adjustments in your domestic politics. The tricky call then: Does your electoral politics drive your strategic choices, or the other way around?
The platter, or the thaali, of choices before Modi is the old one. Nehru chose the worst, Indira the right but temporary one, Manmohan Singh tried a third but didn’t have time or political capital.
Also read: Modi govt and military leaders have soldiers’ blood on hands. PM’s dilemma now same as Nehru
ALL THESE ARE POOR DIPLOMACY BY THIS GOVT., FIRSTLY TEY HAVE ISOLATED MUSLIMS AND DALITS BECAUSE OF R S S IDEOLOGY. THEY SHOULD BRING PEACE WITHIN INDIA AND FACE CHINESE AGGRESSION
All this while, you BJP fellows were claiming India is a Hindu superpower. It took just one beating and then you seek support of others . Is India Philippines ?
As for your claim that US and important powers are with India, none of them made any comment.
Incompetent leaders like Modi brought this on India, and you better get real before India loses more land. Get rid of Modi, and restructure the Indian army. Reduce Brahmins and Banias, and induct more Sikhs, Muslims and Gurkhas. Only they can match the Mongolian race.
Mr Rasgolla: The BJP’s tom-tomming of India being a superpower and a Vishwaguru – whatever the hell that means – is all empty rhetoric devoid of any substance emanating from the 56 inch chested Gujarati and his sycophants. It is designed for the jingoistic Hindutva types who fall for this vacuous spin lock stock and barrel and never bother to check facts on the ground or the veracity of the utterances of the 56 inch chested Gujarati.
You raise questions about representation in the Armed Forces. I think that the larger issue is that the representation of minorities, particularly Muslims and Dalits in not only the Armed Forces but also the police, the civil services, political parties and other arms of the government is abysmal. The BJP knows that thanks to Hindutva, itcan completely ignore the concerns of India’s Muslim citizens and win elections. So why bother with their welfare or representation ? And from time to time, the token Muslims in the BJP e.g. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi or Shazia Ilmi are often paraded forward to assuage Muslims that the BJP has their interests in mind and so please ignore the lynchings, encounters and indiscriminate police violence against Muslims. Although I hesitate using strong language, I will not hesitate to call them traitors to their own communities.
As regards reducing the Banias & Brahmins in the Forces, well, there aren’t that many B&Bs in the Forces. Brahmin and Baniya parents make sure that their sons get the coveted American Green card and are not particularly interested in getting their kids to wear the green camouflage of the Armed Forces. After all, would you want your kid to freeze and starve on the Siachen glacier on Army rations whilst battling altitude sickness and dodging Pakistani or Chinese bullets ? As BSF soldier Tej Bahadur Yadav pointed out in a video in 2017 (ref:bit.ly/31j3nJL) even on the plains, corruption in the procurement processes ensures that a soldier is not fed properly either. I guess China, not India is familiar with Napoleon’s famous quote:
“An army marches on its stomach”.
Guess that needs to be translated to Gujarathi.
Thanks for your perceptive and cleanly written analysis.
‘It is designed for the jingoistic Hindutva types who fall for this vacuous spin lock stock and barrel and never bother to check facts on the ground or the veracity of the utterances of the 56 inch chested Gujarati.’
In my experience, caste Hindus from urban backgrounds who grew up and were in their twenties in 1990s (that is at the height of Advani’s rath yatras ) are irreversibly communalised and they are worshipful of Modi. The educated ones may not be the rioters and lynchers, but they do not want to be questioned about such policies. They will respond with ‘you have to see the other side’ – they say Muslims burnt the train in Gujarat (Modi said this but it is unproved), but they do not ask why BJP-VHP raised kar sevaks with trishuls and sent them on trains at election time. The middle class is the enabler of fascism. They have got the feeling that India will be a Hindu superpower but Muslims and Dalits stand in the way of their progress. So they will support the RSS plan which is that Dalits and Muslims should not vote. India can never be a developed country because development is for the high castes.
Ironically, the prosperous middle class was built by MMS, but they hate him as he was a Sikh appointed by a Christian. Modi has destroyed the wealth of future generations, but this set made money in the MMS years and have land, property and stocks and will get by still supporting Modi. They would rather have an unqualified Hindu as PM rather than a qualified Sikh or anyone else.
Even with the current situation with China, their response is Modi has a secret plan which he will reveal at the correct time. So Modi cannot be held accountable for demonetisation and a string of failures.
‘As regards reducing the Banias & Brahmins in the Forces, well, there aren’t that many B&Bs in the Forces. Brahmin and Baniya parents make sure that their sons get the coveted American Green card and are not particularly interested in getting their kids to wear the green camouflage of the Armed Forces.’
You are right. Their patriotism does not extend to service and sacrifice. Trump has cut the H1-B visa, so the Green Card is not so ready an option in the future. The future jobs are for cow vigilantes. The future is bleak for the caste Hindus as well as the damage to India by the BJP-RSS is so severe that even if you brought back MMS, he would not be able to revive India.
Pakistan only wants peace temporarily as it knows with China it can again get back at India. India is not at a disadvantageous situation. India can count on US overtly and Russia covertly. India has other important powers to support indirectly from Japan, Britain, Germany and others. THere are other powers who are willing to support directly. China is changing its tune after the June 15 clash impact. PLA has realised it has barked on the wrong tree. India will act as per its own plan at a time & place of its choosing. Author can never perceive the non linear approaches to be considered in multiple domains of warfare. China has forced India to change its priorities at the time of Chinese virus pandemic, but now worried about its consequences it has to face from IOR, SCS & ECS. India getting direct support from US and covert support from Russia has forced China to think twice before any more aggression as next time it may be too late to get a face saving opportunity from India.
Mr Travi95: You pontificate:
“.. India can count on US overtly and Russia covertly ..”
Says who? And what would be the quid pro quo that India would face if she were to receive US & Russian help? Do you know what price countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh etc. are paying for Chinese “help” ?
With regards to help from USA, Russia etc., it helps to remember the aphorism:
“There is no such thing as a free lunch”
If there is real aggression from China, India is unlikely to receive anything more than some symbolic help and some shallow statements condemning China. And then, the “Pradhan Sewak” gutted the economy through sheer mis-management, long before the COVID virus struck and has botched the handling of the virus. Additionally, he has whipped up jingoism in the country, bragged about his 56 inch chest and now cannot be seen to be climbing down in the eyes of his bhakths.
As they say:
“He who rides a tiget, is afraid to dismount”
Correct reply.
Other countries are standing afar and observing the China-India spat and are neutral for three reasons. Firstly, they do not want to get into a spat with China. Secondly, claims to be a superpower, so it cannot be Philippines and ask for US protection. Thirdly now Trump is demanding countries more money for US protection. India cannot afford to have US protection.
India has messed up with revoking Article 370, and claiming it will take back Aksai Chin by force. It has only provoked China to take more, and Modi and Shah have no solution. The economy was puny compared with China’s and even that they have wrecked.
Let’s go for all out full scale war anyway India is stuck with 2 asshole neighbors one religious terror and other anti human rights exact polar opposite of first one and see every expert supporting these 2 countries will end up in Uighur camps as soon as India collapses All of you cheering pak and China will be their slaves for next few centuries.
The one cheering for China was Modi. He sold India to them, and gave up territory.
Who stopped Modi from declaring surgical strikes and all out war ? Presumably it was fear of a bigger beating.
A stupid commentary.
SG gives a typical wishy washy analysis. He gives too much credit to Modi’s mind and his habit of springing surprises – as if it stems from genius. Modi is a low IQ Hindu with shakha education. He has gobar in his head, and he is not bright like SG makes out. Xi is the real Chanakya, whose mind is difficult to guess. As for Modi calculating and making a right decision, that is fanciful. Everything he has done has been a mess – economy, Covid handling. When he could not handle these, it is far fetched to think he is going to come out with a brilliant surprise. You could see from his body language when he explained China had not crossed that he is essentially a coward. He is capabGujarat and Delhi, but to organise a war against China – a coward knows he will get a bigger beating. It is better SG called a spade a spade : Modi is the worst kind of Hindu, a coward with gobar brains, and due to him, India will be tukde tukde.
Mr. Ghosh is a conceited upper caste opportunist, who after the beating from China, now imagines India has a lot in common with the west. But as you point out his Hindutva culture is the Nazism, which the west has abandoned.
After the beating from China, these upper caste fellows are disoriented.
Only time will tell till then enjoy your opinions
Thanks for allowing others to enjoy their opinions. You certainly have no refutation.
Neither Tactical Nor Strategic
You say great leaders distinguish the tactical from the strategic, but what see in Modi’s action is neither. If RSS-BJP’s economic nationalism won’t let him sign even a tiny trade deal with the US while it allows to have increasing trade deficit with China then question is what has India received from China in return? Big ZERO. Right?
What we see in social media or BJP’s leader’s speeches and actions is increasing anti-Muslim bias & Pakistan centric nationalism. Now, to this add lots of wining and dining sessions to develop personal relationship with Mr. Xi who is NO friend of Indian’s interest. I supposed you don’t call this either tactical or strategic. Do you see any win-win solution approach with China in any of the actions or boast that followed after abrogation of article 370?
Let us not forget only Aśvamedha Yajña Modi’s BJP knows is Hindutva that too inside India. Of course, there is talk of becoming Vishwa Guru while defense budget under Modi’s watch has been lowest since 1962 war per MM Joshi led parliamentary panel report in 2018.
So, where is coherence either in tactical or strategic thinking & actions?
Only thing Modi will do as a great sales manager is to sell Indians his economic boycott of certain goods and services and also talk developing great relationship with usual enemies of China like Japan, Vietnam etc. but not USA. Once again it is going to be perception management. That’s all.
If you look at Modi’s background, he has no substance. He is someone with a shakha education.
Modi’s appeal is to Hindus only – a large section of Hindus certainly. Only intellectual Hindus see through him and disapprove.
What was and is the appeal of Modi to a large section of Hindus ? The sole reason is he thrashed Indian Muslims in Gujarat 2002. Hindus are frustrated with Kashmir and Pakistan, they cannot stop them or negotiate a solution. Beating up Muslims where they are outnumbered 9:1 gave Hindus a sense of achievement. Modi gave that ‘Hindu first’ satisfaction.
That is all. The rest of the talk about development, vishwa guru, having a presence on the world stage etc. was dressing to cover up the real, ignoble reason for supporting Modi. But eventually reality catches up. Modi destroyed the economy, his attention was on disenfranchising Muslims with CAA-NRC, and he was so preoccupied with it, he did not foresee Covid and the Chinese move.
Still, the Hindus who support Modi will continue believing him. It is like people who follow godmen like Assram; such people cannot believe the evidence that their godman is a rapist.