Campaigning is at its peak for five assembly elections. Are we missing something this time? In fact, it is three significant things.
We give you a few moments to guess. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all key members of his cabinet, especially Amit Shah, are campaigning full-time, as if the fate of their government in Delhi depended on it.
This is one thing we know about their approach to politics: No prize is too small, not even little Puducherry. And every election must be fought as if it is the last battle. Nothing is ever left to chance.
But then we started out telling you that three important things are missing this time, and it is uncharacteristic of the BJP. Let’s answer the riddle: The three missing pitches in the Modi-Shah campaign are Pakistan, Bangladeshis and terrorism.
In fact, we could take it a step further. This is also a campaign for key states with no foreign factor featuring, nor national security.
Please note that even in the relatively distant Karnataka elections of 2018, Modi had spoken often about how his troops had stood up to China at Doklam. And how Jawaharlal Nehru had apparently humiliated Gen. K.S. Thimayya, a brilliant and brave son of Karnataka.
In Bihar in 2015, it was said that if the anti-BJP alliance won, it would be celebrated with firecrackers in Pakistan. In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election, the breathless spirit of the post-Uri surgical strikes guided the campaign.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal and Assam, Bangladeshi infiltrators (ghuspaithiye), who were eating our roots “like termites” and were going to be “thrown in the Bay of Bengal”, featured. Later, in the build-up to the BJP’s politics in these two states, the CAA-NRC combination was flaunted as a solution to all of their problems. With the “chronology” clearly stated.
If a Martian landed in the middle of this election campaign now, she would have good reason to believe that one challenge India does not face is national security. And all its neighbours are decent folk and peace and tranquillity prevails on the borders.
This change is best characterised by the fact that rather than employ insecurity from Bangladeshis as a ploy, Modi himself is in Dhaka this week, pretty much campaigning in the West Bengal elections from there, as the new brother of all Bengalis.
Also read: Why distrust-but-verify is a prudent response to Pakistan Gen Bajwa’s call to bury the past
Let’s get our editorial view on this clearly stated first. We welcome the change, even if it might not be permanent. Or maybe it comes with a hidden use-by date until the Uttar Pradesh elections next year. But, we aren’t complaining.
We had seen early signs of this and I had stuck my neck out in this edition of National Interest in December last year to anticipate this shift. That came following Modi’s conciliatory speech to Indian Muslims at Aligarh Muslim University, which was angry and at the forefront of the CAA-NRC protests. He had started earlier, with his Ramlila Maidan speech a year before, by distancing himself from the NRC, dismissing it as a scare-mongering fantasy.
I had risked saying then that Modi had figured the damage his use of the Muslim card in domestic politics was causing to India’s larger strategic interests. He couldn’t afford to alienate the same Muslim (especially Gulf) countries whose national awards he would talk so proudly about. This was before eastern Ladakh flared up, but India was already evidently a frontline state for China, and Pakistan its protectorate.
The latest shift is a logical progression from there. There could be three key reasons behind this change of mind (preferring mind over heart is deliberate).
– The jubilation with which China and Pakistan moved in, searching for spaces vacated by India in Bangladesh, was alarming. When the relationships with Nepal and Sri Lanka were already under stress, the last thing India needed was a Bengali-speaking Pakistan in the east. Bangladesh is also a large nation, with an economy leaving India behind on per capita GDP last year.
– The threat of war in eastern Ladakh abated. But the Chinese made their point. That India had not one but two hostile neighbours. And it wasn’t about to leave the other to fend for itself as it did in 1971. That was also an obvious impulse for restoring some sort of order on the LoC with Pakistan. And cessation of hostile rhetoric.
– And third, that exploiting sensitive, nuanced national security and foreign policy issues in domestic politics had many downsides, especially one that could boomerang. The Chinese underlined a harsh reality in Ladakh. That unlike with Pakistan, you couldn’t be confident of ending a skirmish claiming victory. Remember, Modi’s strongman persona is built on the idea of “ghar mein ghus ke maara (we went into their homes to thrash them)”. Our formidable defensive capability was on display in Ladakh. But it was necessary to cut its risks for domestic politics soon enough.
Also read: Modi’s India loves global praise, but turns angry Vishwaguru at slightest criticism
A sizeable correction is now on. When you are restoring normalcy at all levels with Pakistan and disengaging with China, there is no insecurity to plug in an election campaign.
Because you can’t risk rhetoric causing fresh distrust in the neighbourhood. When you tweet wishing Imran Khan a quick recovery and write a note laden with diplomatic niceties on his national day, and when your Army chief is saying that the threat from China has abated, you can’t be raising the temperature at election rallies.
It is also an altered global environment, strategically. The Biden administration has picked up the baton from Trump on China. It is running faster, and more purposefully, with it. It’s a big gain and relief for India. Biden’s team is filled with young people of subcontinental origins who harbour great distrust about the BJP, its commitment to civil rights and its treatment of Muslims. You want to give Biden space, not squeeze him into a corner internally. Because he has enough challenges with the radicals within his party.
Under Modi and Shah, the BJP believes in total politics. Everything, every move, whether on the economy, society or foreign policy, must lead to that one first objective: Winning all elections. I’d risk saying now that they have understood that their cynical mixing of domestic politics with strategic national interests was soon going to become counterproductive.
One thing Modi cannot afford is to look like a loser on a national security issue. He’s decided not to risk it. It is smart politics, and better for India.
Also read: India’s challenge is to avoid two-front war, but can Modi put politics aside for strategy?
DOOMED INDIA
I am 75 years old UP NRI, residing in Canada since 1975. I have travelled and worked around the world for over 50 years, my comment is based on my experience and learning. The Indian leaders lack leadership, skill to genuinely rule India. the enemies of India are preying like vultures for India to have internal confrontations, religious war with the goal to divide India into many Nation. Most of the leaders of India have criminal records and criminal mind without the public interest. These Indian leaders dance around IAS, IPS and PCS worshipping them as the Gods. Today India is in a similar situation as Germany was from 1933 to 1945. All over India, the people have no respect for the law and order. 99.99 advocates in India are pickpocketers they are the guardians of peoples Fundamental Rights. 4 IAS,4 PCS, 12 advocates,bhumafia conspired and contracted my murder with late Vikas Dubey of Kanpur UP related to my co-shareholders to get me murdered to steal my shares in India. India has a skilled higher judiciary but these justices can’t go on the streets to enforce the law and order. IAS, IPS, PCS and most of the leaders are traitors.
Mr Shekhar 2 points(1) The Kamala Harris moment is accurate. Mean subcontinent minds in Biden’s cabinet. Albeit incomplete and inaccurate understanding notwithstanding(2) Modi like me the voter has never been anti Muslim. Y? Being realistic and practical anti Muslim was never there in the narrative of voters. Appeasement was. In fact this is the message for Modi detractors. Peace is must for growth and hate does not work. This exposes the divisive agenda of modi detractors deploying Loot Dynast and Cut money culture for power and rule. Voter is against this.
The Print along with their masters congress/Jihadis never change their anti Hindu/BJP & Anti India ranting; just like dogs can’t straighten their tails!!
Hindu-stan must replace the congress/Jihadi eco system & develop a native eco system which challenges the stale communist narrative!!
Missed your morning drug cocktail? Get a reality check for real
Pakistan of course came handy for BJP this time as well, maybe not for bashing. The Pakistani social media influencer’ phrase was indeed used by Nadda who went on to thunder Yay aap , Yay hum hai and yahan parivartan ki Thaiyari Ho rahi hai.
It has come a little too late. All India’s neighbor like, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka had a diplomatic flight from India, but it is better late than never.
my dear journalist this time nothing happen
why they would bring Pakistan,terrorism if all is good
BJP has never won in WB, and south states. These states more well read, developed and may not fall only for Hindu-Muslim divide.
Further BJP is all set to become zero in Punjab, Haryana and delhi , if not already.
Theses states along with may be Telangana they smell the opportunity to keep a balance for seat control and to implement their policies
They are desperate after Maharashtra and will break MVA coalition, matter of time, unless Shiv Sena Govt quits, which also seems likely
“These states more well read, developed Hindu-Muslim divide…”
What you say is TRASH!!
Education DOES IS NOT EQUAL WISDOM!! During emergency imposed by Congress, the south was supporting Indira’s dictatorship while the north had completely rejected it!!
Meanwhile, Congress has been SECULAR Hindu genocide-rs in chief!! Led by communal Nehru & MK Gandhi, they created Terrorist-an & were responsible for butchering Hindus & taking away their legitimate property, religious & civilization-al rights !! The Hindus temples are still in govt. control while mosques & Churches are free!! This apartheid against Hindus was perpetuated by congress in so called independent India & by the so called courts of justice!!
Also, Hindu Muslim divide is basically because of Sunni Muslims who have not changed despite Hindu sacrifices & unbelievable tolerance!! They voted for & stole Indian lands for Islam & made it a terror state!! Most of these Sunnis stayed in India perhaps to drink Gaumutra but did not go to the Islamic land of their dreams that they created!! WHY??
It was long long awaited tour of pm Modi , to Bangladesh . But unfortunately hate and division between Hindu/Muslims , came up abruptly during the time pm Modi landed. Why it all is happened ? It must , was to be , a peaceful journey for Bangladesh India & also for all the neibouring countries .
The surmons & the body language of pm Modi was not allighned to peace & also the gestures of pm Modi were full of hate & historic confessions of warfare.
As South Asian under developed countries , we must change our minds, thoughts for peace & harmony amongst the people of our countries.
The replies show that people are reading “The Print” even Andh bakhts by thousands.
CONGRATULATIONS
India is a land of Bhakts!! You too are one albeit a converted & distorted one!!
Don’t foget your Xanax Reality Check.
Good to see a change in the political campaign – from Unhealthy to Healthy – that is a good sign to notice. Loved reading this
Laughable analysis by Mr. Gupta. Even when the BJP was campaigning on jihad and Pakistan in UP, it still did not mention about these in TN because that doesn’t win votes there. It is as simple as that. BJP is still using AIUDF, AIMIM, ISF and the Mehbooba-Abdullah duo for political mobilization in their respective states. With China, since the outcome is unknown as yet, it doesn’t find a mention either. With Pakistan, the Bajwa-Imran duo tried to bowl a googly by offering ‘peace’ without mentioning UN resolutions. Modi, rather than denying engagement and risking backlash from the democrat left in the US, thereby denying Biden the political space, decided to play along. That these so-called talks would breakdown inevitably is a foregone conclusion and if Pakistan doesn’t do it then we can do it ourselves to wiggle out at a particularly unfavourable situation. By the time this happens, the US would be out of Afghanistan, hopefully, and hence Pakistan’s utility to the US would diminish further, enabling the application of even greater pressure on Pakistan as a Chinese ally rather a useful US tool. When analysts try to discern political and strategic ploys, they must set aside their own prejudices to get the analysis right or risk losing credibility.
@Vasish: What makes you think that the leftist/liberals in India or the USA are credible for anyone having an ounce of grey cells??
Indian leftist/liberals espouse the slaughter of Hindus & the splendid Hindu civilization while the leftist democrats in USA are basically anti Christian, anti nationalist & anti White scoundrels!! They are also the most vicious supporters of caste ism/racism between blacks & whites!!
This is a anti India propoganda media, nothing is true I’m the entire article, far away from reality and facts. Seems to be a paid news.
Ideological leaning is the first sign of a thinking man. The basic difference is on two ideological issues (1) the importance to be given to Hinduism and (2) in making the country prosperous do we do it by redistribution of the existing wealth or by additional wealth creation. Bangladeshis, Pakistan and terrorism are real and practical issues.
Modi/ Shah are smart politicians and know how to use the real issues. In Bangladesh Modi will not the raise the issue of illegal migrants but will possibly try find a solution. If they are cheap labor, it may be a good idea to give them work permits only no voting rights. The migrants do not seek voting rights, they need work, it is the political parties that want to give them voting rights to grow their vote banks. If that can be achieved it will make a big dent in this vote bank. It could also solve the long standing problem.
Pakistan and terror will fetch no electoral gain in Bengal, besides both the issues are cooling down with the cease fire and strong actions within Kashmir.
Okay who wrote this article? Bhai tu jo phoonk ke likhta hai mereko bhi phuka
Good one
The print is only news paper “modi ne kuch Kia to kio Kia or agar modi ne kuch nahi Kia to kio nahi Kia ”
This news paper say we are talking about national interest but itna BHI nahi Janet no modi Bangladesh me kar raha hai bo national interest me ata hai
#foolmedia #rahulmedia
Being a rulling govt party, you guys should bring prosperity in socioeconomic aspects but we are unfortunate that, the inequality gap is going towards north. You guys are making fool to your followers by showing democracy under the capitalism mask.
@R P D: Learn English or better still; write in Bhartiye language: Hindi/Sanskrit or Tamil will be great!! Stop lying too!!
The print is only news paper who have problem with everything ” agar sarkar jar rahi hai to kio jar rahi hai or agar nahi kar rahi hai to kio nahi kar rahi hai”
#rahul media
@Sam: The Print is the more moderate of Jihadi @Congress/communist media!! Quint, Wire & perhaps The Hindu are far worse!!
Once (upto the period of stalwarts like Vajpayeeji), BJP stood for principles and morals. After the party went into the hands of Gujarati duo, BJP became worse than Congress. Modiji ruined the Indian economy by his illogical Demonetization and privatization which helped Gujarati business tycoons at the cost of Aam Admi. Only Ambanis and Adanis were benefited by Modi policies. Though India got freedom from Britishers, still it’s a slave in the hands of Ambanis and Adanis.