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Why distrust-but-verify is a prudent response to Pakistan Gen Bajwa’s call to bury the past

If India thinks it's caught in an awful two-front situation, the picture is more challenging for Pakistan. It can continue fighting India and become a colony of China.

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The first reaction among informed Indians to Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s 13-minute speech at the Islamabad Security Dialogue last Thursday would be a yawn. All he’s saying is, India and Pakistan should bury the past, make a new beginning, they have a shared stake in peace so they can focus on their economies, and so on. Isn’t this what every Pakistani leader, elected or not, has said at some point of time? Then they stab you in the back. So, what’s new?

To borrow and twist that phrase from the disclaimers in mutual fund advertisements, if the past is the only guide to future performance, there is no point talking about Pakistan. Just buy more sniper rifles and sit on the LoC. So, how do we break the deadlock?

Bombing them to the Stone Age isn’t the answer. We know that after Kargil, Op Parakram and Pulwama/Balakot. Even tough-talking US security-diplomat Richard Armitage, who famously used this threat to make Pakistan fall in line after 9/11, knew it was just hyperbole. In the 20 years since, the US has bombed large parts of Afghanistan to the Stone Age several times over. But it is the Americans who are retreating in defeat.

Militarily, diplomatically, politically or economically, achieving anything by force is out of the question. As former Army chief General V.P. Malik said in a conversation with me earlier this month on ThePrint’s ‘Off The Cuff’, it isn’t possible today to achieve any of our territorial objectives, PoK or Aksai Chin, by military force. Besides the capability question, any such adventure would immediately run into global disapproval and force a ceasefire earlier than you can advance a few miles. For clarity, these are my words, not his.

Where do we go from here then? And how did we get here in the first place?

Suddenly, one morning last month, we saw coordinated statements by the directors general of military operations (DGMOs) on both sides that they had solemnly agreed to once again abide by the 2003 agreement on maintaining peace on the Line of Control. What that means is a stop to those madcap, aimless spells of firing heavy ordnance at each other’s posts and villages. It achieved nothing, except take out some bhadaas (frustration).

Besides, it made great pictures and TV for commando comic channels on either side, which could then, with the help of angry grey moustaches, declare victory for their respective armies. But the armies know the truth. As do their governments. At some point, they knew they needed to move on.

Anybody who thinks that both DGMOs woke up one morning with the same thought of peacemaking has to be drinking something very potent, maybe gifted Maotai from the Chinese, and too much of it. Similarly, anybody who believes Gen. Bajwa’s speech came serendipitously has to be drinking on the next bar stool. Something has gone on between the two sides for several weeks, if not months, behind the scenes.


Also read: It’s time for China, Pakistan, even India to rethink the fantasy Modi called expansionism


Strong words of caution have come from the rugged old intelligence/strategic/military establishment.

What does one more Pakistani general mean when he says bury the past and move on? It means India should bury the past and move on while Pakistan subverts us. For people who’ve dedicated their lives to fighting the same adversary, this sentiment is easy to appreciate.

But then, as we argued earlier, it isn’t possible in 2021 for one nation to pulverise another to achieve anything. Especially when we live in a neighbourhood with strong, competing nationalism and robust, nuclear-armed militaries. Nobody is ever going to be like Armenia to Azerbaijan or Ukraine to Russia here. We need to think creatively.

In negotiations to end the Cold War, Ronald Reagan had famously used a line with Mikhail Gorbachev: ‘Trust, but verify’. While dealing with Pakistan, we could turn it inside out: ‘Distrust, but verify’. What that means is, while you view every new move coming from Rawalpindi (my preferring this over Islamabad is deliberate) with the highest degree of suspicion, you check it out nevertheless.

That’s why, while we hold our deep scepticism close to our hearts, we apply our minds to read between the general’s lines, spoken as these were in the most delightful, pucca Punjabi pronunciation familiar on both sides of the border.

Two things stand out in that written speech. One, a commitment of non-interference in the internal affairs of any country in the neighbourhood or the region. You might say it’s a mere platitude. But be cautious and verify. Nobody’s in a rush to invite the Pakistani Northern Areas commander to a game of golf in Srinagar’s Badami Bagh cantonment.

Second, he did not leave out the mention of Kashmir. But there was a nuance. He said progress in relations of course depends on India creating a ‘conducive environment’ on its side of Kashmir. The customary mention would’ve reminded India of the need to restore the pre-5 August 2019 status to Jammu and Kashmir forthwith, and prepare for self-determination as laid down in the UN Security Council Resolutions, blah blah blah.

Does it mean the Pakistani Army has given up its insistence on the restoration of the pre-5 August 2019 status quo ante? Don’t jump to that conclusion. But check it out. Because, if we think we are caught in this awful two-front situation, the picture only looks worse from where Bajwa sits.


Also read: What the amazing rise & sudden death of a ‘Holy Warrior’ tell us about Islam & politics in Pakistan


He sees a domineering India to the east, an unravelling Afghanistan and a complex Iran to the west, an overbearing China to the north and a US which is no longer an ally. We are at that juncture of history where US and India are allies and their embrace is getting tighter in the Quad. Like all the most important members of the Pakistani elite, Bajwa has to make a call.

Either make peace with India, or continue fighting it and become a military protectorate and economic colony of China.

Remember, that all of the Pakistani elite have their children, money and assets in the West. If they weren’t driven by such hatred of India, they would see little in common with China. Further, this comes at a time when the Gulf countries are alienated from Pakistan and are recalling their loans. Peace with India is a way ahead.

Within India, we have to admit that the Modi government is much too successful in keeping its mind to itself. Anybody except a few in the government, who claims to have an insight into its thinking, is lying. But, we have enough evidence by now to know that this is not a dispensation that looks forward to any conflict.

In seven years, and across eight budgets, the allocation for defence has remained the same or marginally declined. They are not preparing for war. Similarly, Pathankot, Uri, Pulwama, Galwan all tell us they are also not about to be knee-jerked into a conflict.

Let’s conclude this with a view that will provoke, even trigger (since that’s the word millennials prefer), many. The Modi government can build on a no-war policy because it is strong enough to do so. A weaker government would’ve been under much greater pressure in east Ladakh, and earlier with Pakistan, to do something more adventurous. Many taunted Modi for not going to war with China, unlike Nehru who “at least fought, even if he lost”. Nehru’s was a much weaker government in 1962 than Modi’s now. He had no choice but to go down fighting, Modi is too strong to fall in that trap. He would prefer peace, not war.


Also read: How Indian armed forces can defeat Pakistan in less than a week


 

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127 COMMENTS

  1. Being An Indian ( kashmiri ) , I am very delight And captivated by a speech of Bajwa saying , bury the past, make a new beginning , although Pakistani Army has given up its insistence on the restoration of the pre-5 August 2019 status is stout . Being from a conflict zone my heart is drenched in wine . Although most kashmiris have Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) (for teens)- feel they can’t stop thinking about worries like these: someone might get sick, hurt, or die. things might be germy or dirty. something isn’t straight, even, or exactly right . Finally and decisively we want to get rid of this blame game , edge out the false Hope , moreover Essentially, the right to self-determination is the right of a people to determine its own destiny. In particular, the principle allows a people to choose its own political status and to determine its own form of economic, cultural and social development promise, by saying this
    Ham Ko Mili Hain Aaj Ye, Ghadiyaan Nasib Se
    Ji Bhar Ke Dekh Lijiye, Ham Ko Qarib Se
    Phir Aap Ke Nasib Men, Ye Baat Ho Na Ho
    Shaayad Phir Is Janam Men Mulaaqaat Ho Na Ho
    Lag Ja Gale Ki Phir Ye Hasin Raat Ho Na Ho

  2. Open the border so two nation people can travel in both countries freely i want to travel in lahore cuisine and hospitality is same of both countries

  3. Pakistan definitely is serious at this time. Pakistan is facing economic crunch and lot of other internal and external problems. The only way to fix them is to have cordial relations with india. Yes you can’t trust them. But they may want peace for 10 years or so. Ultimately they will do what they have to. I’m from indian occupies kashmir and huge fan of Pakistan. So you have to believe my words. I follow them more closely than you people do. Peace between India and Pakistan means peaceful life for us kashmiris too.

    • What is Indian occupied Kashmir? Something similar to Indian occupied Kerala, or India occupied Haryana, is it? Nice way of putting, “you have to believe me”. Who is you people? So many people here: Bihari people, and (hundred of type of Biharis) then Bundelkhandis, and Malwa, and Gujarati and Kashmiri, and Ladakhi and, and Dogras and Bakalwals and 1000’s more all over. what are you talking about? Really a nasty rotten to the core piece of writing. I know where your love lies with some Pakistani Bachhe baaz. You love that.

    • The day we believe in Pakistan we are done in…1947 , 1965, 1971, 1999 are proofs. Since 1989 they are fighting the war of the thousand cuts.. Drugs and guns are being smuggled. All sorts of jihadis are coming through LoC Bangladesh, Nepal and other places. One statement doesn’t change anything. Is Hafiz Saheed still collecting money and training people- yes. Pakistani Army and Rangers still firing -yes. Preparing and improving defences. -yes. What verifiables have changed -zilch…We have our Jaichands, ever too eager to co tow line of outsiders. Walk softly but carry a big stick…

  4. The ditching of the past offered by Pakistan Army general is a very positive move but we Indians must take in to consideration that this is an excuse for Pakistan to get time to consolidate their military and to accumulated more unconventional weapons from China. They know very well that India can never win a war with Pakistan since both countries are nuclear powered. Due to financial crisis in Middle east Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries are asking for the return of financial aid given to Pakistan.
    I think it will be better that India says a big NO to Pakistan that right now we are not ready to ditch the past. If you send cross border terrorists to India then we will retaliat deep in to Pakistan. If you fire in to our border we will retaliate with Lava. So let us remain vigil and never fall in to this type of silly traps.

  5. Basically Pakistan extends a hand only when they feel vulnerable and soon after that they attack
    Remember 1999, The Vajpayee Sharif meet
    India should never reciprocate but work feverishly to destroy Pakistan and exterminate all Muslims living in Pakistan to make the entire subcontinent safe for Hindus for the next thousand years.

  6. India is a big country.. we should just move on with countries that we have good ties with. And leave poor countries like Pakistan they are no match for us they already have enough problems internally Imran Khan is a monkey among the donkies.. when his own countrymen are not supporting him to settle issues with india.. what can we expect out of them? Jai hind.. jai bharat..

  7. Reading the comments in this article gives one a true picture of the level of raw hatred Indians have for their Pakistani neighbors. There is an old Hindi saying “taali do haath say bajh ti hai”. The differences between Indian and Pakistanis are not Pakistans fault alone.

    Indians need to look at the mirror and have an honest self assessment rather than piling on the blame at others. Every chance at peace, no matter how remote, needs to be followed up on and encouraged. We cannot give up in a neighborhood where hundreds of millions of lives can improved by the cooling down of rhetoric and bombast.

  8. Well said,but it a one sided story you people are in the notion that pakistan is too weak to concede anything for peace.The statement of Bajwa is very important keeping. In view the changing political dynamics around pakistan.As there is a new block in offering comparing pakistan,china,Russia,Iran. And turkey which will surely affect the political environment of sub continent.
    The importance of CPEC is known to all even Russia has shown it’s intrest to join this mega project the people who are claiming that it is failure should open there ears and eyes and see how it is developing day by day so it is inn Indias intrest to join this economic highway so that they should also reap the economic benefits.
    It is also a truth as far as kashmir dispute is there peace will Elude in sub continent,india by doing Unconstitutional act to abrogate the speacial status of j&k has done a strategic and legal blunder by inviting China into this dispute.
    I will conclude by only saying few words that it is in the best intrest of India to solve long standing dispute of Kashmir in its best interest and as far as pakistan is considered not think even a iota that it is a weak country the best instance is the operation Swift retreat shown by the in Feb 2019 so as they say seeing is believing..

  9. It’s a set up under US guidance to create a pretext for the resumption of massive US arms aid to Pakistan by its supporters in Biden govt.

  10. Dear sir,
    After defeating Pakistan in 1971 n capturing 83000 soldiers we could not level the issue of kashmir in a return deal. This time 19 march 2021 we can take in writting from pakistan that we have nothing to do with kashmir n our efforts to create a chaotic n terrorist activity is our blunder mistake. We accept in presence of UNO that fron 21 march 2021 we want make war n terrorist activity against india for any cause n speciaaly for kashmir.
    Gurugovind singh had said that they can swear as many times in front of Quran but DONT TRUST THEM. THEY ARE NOT WELCOMED IN ANY CORNER OF THE WORLD.
    THANKS MAYANK

  11. I call this Lumpen Element – Bhadwa Bajwa. Why Bhadwa? Because this punk is on a self extension for 3 years as pukestani army chief. Not that I care. The guy who will take over from him could be Worse. He certainly won’t be better than this Bhadwa. It’s their DNA. Indra blundered at Simla.
    How many more times does India bury the Past?
    We want that Pig hafiz Saeed & Azar Mahmood. Dawood?
    Otherwise – Just Lay Off- bhadwa bajwa. He too will emigrate once his tenure is over.

  12. Pakistan is China’s military colony at the expense of pakistan people money.pakistan became a bankrupt country with huge military spending. Bejwa s words may be right as of now.
    But this country politicians , military, terror outfits lifeline is ,india hate, attitude. Each one compete s in Blame india game.
    Will they control themselves in future elections, economic crisis

    War is not solution ,peace is a failure without sincere realistic efforts ny all stake holders

  13. The history is repeating itself. They are talking peace so that India downgrades their defences and they get chance to strike.

    Peace talk will also bring them in International limelight which they are losing.

    They want to India’s support to come to world’s center stage.

    We should not fall in trap again. While there is no alternative but this is also not a option.

  14. 1. China is fed up with Pak as all the money thrown at CPEC has gone down the drain.
    2. Saudis and UAE have thrown out Pak workers. Very serious issue. Each expat supports a large family back in Pak.
    3. The Pak elite have given up on the country.
    4. Non-Muslims have emigrated. Industries have flaundered.
    4. India has become massively strong militarily.
    5. THE WORLD IS FED UP WITH JEHADI TERRORISM.

  15. I think pakistan has understood the Chinese policy that’s what’s why they are leaned towards india. But we should check check and check it properly because pakistani government is nothing without military..

  16. I agree with Mr Gupta’s assessment that hardly much comes out of the present government, unless it is leaked deliberately, so not many know of its thought process. Also, the present government does not do anything in a knee-jerk manner, it chooses its time. Certainly, government tries to give peace a chance and war is never an option of first choice. Unlike most commentariat that is steeped on cause and effect analysis, I think Modi government thinks deeply on many issues, they may have as much chance of getting things wrong, but it is certain this government thinks differently and not averse to risk taking if cost benefit is favorable.

  17. I agree with Mr Gupta’s assessment that hardly much comes out of the present government, unless it is leaked deliberately, so not many know of its thought process. Also, the present government does not do anything in a knee-jerk manner, it chooses its time. Certainly, government tries to give peace a chance and war is never an option of first choice. Unlike most commentariat that is steeped on cause and effect analysis, I think Modi government thinks deeply on many issues, they may have as much chance of getting things wrong, but it is certain this government thinks differently and not averse to risk taking if cost benefit is favorable.

  18. India doesn’t have time to waste on a failed country which has proved itself a living fossil of history. We need to focus only on Beijing.
    Pakistan was created just for Punjabi Sunni muslims, jamindars, their army officers and thug politicians.

    • Focus only on Beijing means ignore Islamabad?
      We must not make serious mistake by underestimating the Pakistani army. Pakistani now must have learnt from their defeats I guess.. wiping out the first enemy before the second enemy strikes is a better way to keep both of the warfrontlines safe.

  19. I agree with Mr Gupta’s assessment that hardly much comes out of the present government, unless it is leaked deliberately, so not many know of its thought process. Also, the present government does not do anything in a knee-jerk manner, it chooses its time. Certainly, government tries to give peace a chance and war is never an option of first choice. Unlike most commentariat that is steeped on cause and effect analysis, I think Modi government thinks deeply on many issues, they may have as much chance of getting things wrong, but it is certain this government thinks differently and not averse to risk taking if cost benefit is favorable.

  20. Without past there is no future. If they are really sincere for peace, first let them vacate all the Indian lands occupied after independence and handover them to India.

  21. Until Pakistan shelters people like dawood and the Mumbai attack terrorist leaders , this talk of peace is just eyewash. Pakistan is in a precarious place financially, with its western sponsors not ready to foot the bill any longer. China must be getting tired of pumping loans and aid into the bottomless pit that is Pakistan. The Chinese virus has added to the fatigue all over the world. Make no mistake, this is just a hiatus, the Chinese and porkies will attack once they again feel settled. What the Pakistani PM is saying is not that good relations with India should be pursued as a matter of policy, but that the Pakistanis are not in a position financially at the moment to pursue hostilities. Once they get another sponsor, the terrorist factories will be back in operation.

  22. “Militarily, diplomatically, politically or economically, achieving anything by force is out of the question.”

    My goodness. Such profundity. For incisive analysis like above, readers are so keen to support Print’s journalism!

    Shekhar Gupta’s fetish with Pakistan is a mystery. Maybe it’s got to do with trauma — when he and Chiddu were hiding in their closets during 26/11. Only to surface weeks later and start lighting candles at Wagah. Only utter cowards (like SG and MMS) and gullible (like Vajpayee) will take the treacherous Pakis for their word. Is it too hard to ignore Pakistan? A failed, malevolent state. Let it become China’s colony. Pakis: enjoy your bat soup.

  23. The state of Pakistan is inches away from being declared a failed state. This is what happens when you have people of immense brilliance, bravery, courage and resourcefulness taken advantage of by its own armed forces. The state is a broken shell and soon the steel spine that is the military will crumble too. No matter what G.Bajwa says, he is just a valve for his nation that needs to release some of the pressure that will cause it to implode in the near future.
    He is from a long line of previous Generals and elite who hide behind words when they are convinced it would be foolhardy to carry on with the same policies. The concept of peace when outnumbered is a very old technique among the elite in power. I’m not at all surprised to see the armed forces to now practice it so openly.
    I very much doubt G.B. is sincere. And I doubt very much that he has that breathing space. You see, in Pakistan, it is very much the ISI’s way or the highway. To London and onwards.

    But that is his problem. Our problem is that we don’t really benefit from any war, protracted or brief. We can win the war, no doubt about that. Right now, but 12 years down the line would be even better. We can deal with the nuclear fallout and loss of lives if we fail to intercept even one of those pesky tactical nuclear missiles.
    We don’t have to be so barbarous as to bomb this nation to the stone age. That only happens when you are projecting power from a far off continent and we are right next door.

    The achievement of giving independence to Baluchistan and Sindh will be sufficient to significantly reduce the potency of the neighbour’s armed forces. The country will break into West Punjab, North West Frontier Province, Baluchistan and Sindh. And that is sufficient for the sacrifice to be worth it.

    However, the sacrifice of defence personnel, civilians, materiel and money will be a monstrous tar pit that will need continued feeding perhaps for generations and generations, just like Kashmir, except on a national level.
    History teaches you that defeated nations will be your greatest enemies if you don’t quickly help them rise up again and teach them the right values along the way. And this is the crux of our problem.

    As S. rightly pointed out, G.B has a few nightmares at his border keeping him awake at nights. They may very well become our problems if his spine crumbles. Are we ready to become the steel spine of the West Punjab, Baluch and Sind Nations, is it worth our while to make war and assimilate the problems of this already failed nation?

  24. Never believe Pakistan better to try and merge it with India as no such state existed before partition. These are bunch of traitors

  25. See who are preaching to whom….😃😃 Pakistan and peace never coincides ….What Pakistan preached never follow….A state of “good for nothing” is talking of peace…..Pak ke napaak harkat .

  26. Paki and RSS both pathologic Liers. So Indian common people suffer. Time Indians keep at least this side of Border in Truth and Honesty.

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