All three non-BJP-ruled states have seen their incumbents decimated. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala threw up different insights and lessons. I will list some common to these three states and some unique as we go along. West Bengal first.
Let me start with a story. Shyamal Dutta (or Datta), a 1965-batch West Bengal cadre IPS officer, served as Director, Intelligence Bureau (DIB) (1998-2001) under Vajpayee. Later, he was Governor of Nagaland (2002-2007) across NDA and UPA governments. He was no party’s loyalist.
It was on a flight to Kolkata when he was DIB that I asked him if the BJP can ever win in West Bengal. He said Bengal will embrace the BJP more wholeheartedly than any other state, it’s a matter of time.
Dutta, 85 now, lives in retirement in Kolkata’s Ballygunge. I called him today to remind him of that conversation about 26 years ago. What made him feel confident that the BJP will rise in his home state? “It was a long time back,” he said to me today, “but probably because I had accompanied Vajpayee for his rally to Kolkata and he visited Mamata Banerjee’s home.” Dutta recalled how Vajpayee touched Mamata’s mother’s feet.
The warmth there, and the crowds lining the streets made him believe Bengal was ready for the BJP. He also said, somewhat philosophically, that he even thought “Mamata might become the BJP’s person in Bengal”. That story turned upside down or inside out. Mamata’s TMC was a member of Vajpayee’s NDA and she its railways minister. The Gujarat riots of February, 2002, the rise of Narendra Modi and her need for Muslim votes made her leave the NDA.
The story told, here are some takeaways.
● The first follows from her decimation. So far the combination of welfare and identity politics worked for her. Given the 30 percent Muslim vote and the loyalty of women she looked invincible despite the BJP’s decade-long challenge. But, lack of visible development and the old, Left Front-era ‘dadagiri’ (local mafias) finally defeated her. Of course, the BJP threw everything at her. But, the lesson is, just welfarism and identity politics won’t keep working for you. Not for the fourth time. You need development.
● West Bengal and Tamil Nadu underline the limitations of regional identity politics. Both Didi and Stalin built their pitch against Delhi, Hindi domination, and an unfair Centre. Neither appreciated that their young people were impatient. Tamil Nadu had created more jobs than West Bengal. But, in large populations like ours, those left behind will always outnumber the gainers. It’s that grievance that led Joseph Vijay to success. Didi has no ideology except her definition of secularism. And the Tamil voter is fatigued with old Dravidian ideology. They needed a renewal.
● Vijay’s rise isn’t unprecedented. Both Sri Lanka and Nepal, the two genuine democracies across our borders, had already seen rank outsiders sweeping aside established parties. The lesson therefore is, people, especially the young, can get bored with the same old, same old. If a fresh face emerges with new ideas and a clean slate, they’ll take their chances. We saw the first sign of this with the AAP in Delhi, and more significantly in Punjab which had deeply entrenched political forces including the Akalis, a religious-regional party. The political outsider is now the X factor in our politics. Remember, Tamil Nadu has more voters than Sri Lanka and Nepal put together.
● We’ve seen the marginalisation of what’s called the “minority” vote. It’s the logic of Partition that the Muslims are scattered even in states where their numbers are significant. Their vote matters if the leaders they trust build coalitions with significant sections of the Hindus. In the Mandal era, the Yadavs and Mayawati brought in their caste bases. They could then win with about a 30 percent aggregate vote in a three-way split. With the BJP expanding its Hindu domination and also signing up multiple caste-based parties, that era of 30 percent is over. If the BJP gets 50 percent of the Hindu vote, it’s home. In West Bengal and Assam it needs about 60 percent. The ‘secular’ parties, therefore, have to revisit their formula. Or, the Muslims, 15 percent of India, won’t matter electorally.
● The end of the political Left has looked so inevitable that one can’t even claim boasting rights. But do check out my WritingsOnTheWall from North Bengal published last week. The big defeat in Kerala, a near-blank in West Bengal, decimation of the DMK–led alliance in Tamil Nadu have reduced the Left into nothing. This coincides with the end of the armed, ‘revolutionary’ Left.
● The regional parties are on their way out. On a net basis, the rise of Vijay’s TVK equals the score. But, TMC will struggle to recover. In Assam, the once-dominant AGP is BJP’s distant hanger-on. Shiv Sena is divided, Akali Dal a shadow of its glory days, NCP, DMK, the Gowdas’ JD(S) diminished, and JD(U) headed into the sunset with Nitish Kumar, BRS broken, and BSP in perpetual hibernation means regional powers are fading. Mind you, I’ve only listed parties which have enjoyed multiple chief ministerships.
● Besides Kerala, this regionals’ decline is also a positive for the Congress. Many of these regional parties had either broken away from it (TMC, YSRCP, NCP), or vacuumed its vote banks (SP, BSP, RJD). If it’s willing to put its head down and be patient—remember the BJP started with three seats in West Bengal in 2016—the decline of these parties opens up spaces for the Congress. Does it have the skills, guts and humility?
● And finally, you’d err if you credit or blame the BJP’s success only on Hindutva. It’s more than that. It’s Hinduised-nationalism. In democracies the world over, hard nationalism is back. Unless BJP’s challengers accept this, they’ll slip further into obscurity. The image of Rahul Gandhi in Nicobar on the eve of the last round of West Bengal voting, to stop what the wider public opinion would see as a project of great strategic interest, fails this test. Today’s liberalism will have to first pass the test of hard nationalism.
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