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How Modi has made a ‘Nehruvian’ half-blunder on China & ignored investing in the military

Modi assumed the Chinese won’t be a military threat and risk their economic interests. He was only half-right — that there wouldn’t be a conventional war.

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As we anxiously watch eastern Ladakh, a tough truth needs to be stated. That in the first five years of his rule, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a strategic blunder of Nehruvian proportions. Then we will also argue why, somewhat unlike Nehru’s in 1955-62, it was half a blunder.

We are making a reasoned presumption that when he took over in the summer of 2014 with a full majority, Modi was confident there was going to be no war in his tenure. In any case, the era of big wars between nations was over.

We are not sure if someone in his inner council would’ve read out to him American columnist Tom Friedman’s famous ‘golden arches’ argument that no two nations have ever gone to war with each other ever since they acquired their McDonald’s restaurants. The logic was, once you are part of the global system, nations would not go to war if they have a vested interest in each other’s bond prices.

Because it sounds simplistic, let’s elaborate. When nations become serious and substantive players in a globalised economy, as India and China have, the downside of an armed conflict will be economic more than military. A new stability had been ushered in between large nations by this new mutually assured economic destruction.

Dr Manmohan Singh had explained this to some of us in a rare meeting he had with senior editors. I asked if America wasn’t vulnerable, now that the Chinese, with their bulging reserves, were buying so heavily into their bonds and thereby financing US deficit. What if the Chinese decided to dump American bonds?

Dr Singh answered this with a professor’s fleeting smile. If the Chinese do so, he said, the dollar would collapse and the yuan would equally strengthen. That would, in turn, destroy China’s exports. So, there was this new strategic balance.

And because there was going to be no war with either, there was no point investing too much additional money in defence budgets. That India’s big military modernisation could wait. That is why for six years under Modi, India’s defence budget has declined as a percentage of the GDP, rather than risen.

This is in spite of a double blow. First, the increased pension bill with the implementation of OROP, an election promise. And more significantly, the second, that the GDP growth after his first two years slowed, first from a sprint to a canter, then a crawl, and now, free-fall.


Also read: It’s time for China, Pakistan, even India to rethink the fantasy Modi called expansionism


Since we do not have the benefit of sitting across from Modi and understanding his mind, we can only make a reasonable guess. That in May of 2014, he made a presumption that the Pakistanis can’t ever dream of taking Kashmir by force.

Just as Pakistan could never catch up with India militarily, India could not match China in the near future. But, China’s economic stake in India was becoming higher with huge trade surpluses, and deeper with massive equity investments. The Chinese were not going to be so foolish as to ruin their own party. Until they signalled change in Doklam, in the late summer of 2017.

Initially, Modi reached out to both Pakistan and China. His stopover to meet Nawaz Sharif on 25 December 2015 was entirely his own, instinctive decision that took the MEA by surprise. He was conscious that the reason Manmohan Singh failed to fulfil his desire to visit his native village in Pakistan was that he couldn’t defy his officers who counselled risk-aversion.

Modi was not Manmohan Singh, he was right to assert, and he would go where he wished. It is just that soon afterwards he was forced to make the same realisation that each one of his nine predecessors from Indira Gandhi onwards made after making some errors: That real power in Pakistan lies elsewhere, not with the elected leader. He then made a strategic turn, reinstating Pakistan in the eternal enemy slot. It worked well with domestic politics, besides being true to his core constituency, and base, the RSS.

Pakistan, he would safely believe, was not going to be a military threat. It was, on the other hand, an opportunity in domestic politics. So, let it play out that way. Uri, surgical strikes, Pulwama-Balakot were evidence that the political strategy was working. The Pakistan factor helped him sweep both the Uttar Pradesh (2017) and national (2019) elections.

On China, he made a different outreach, inviting Xi Jinping to his home state, drawing a cultural and historical connection personally, by reminding him that the place Chinese explorer Hiuen Tsang first visited after landing on India’s coast was Vadnagar, his native village.

It also so happened that the explorer had lived in Xi’s home town of Xian. A personal equation, deep friendship, sugar-coated in the benefits of trade and investments, it was calculated then, would end the Chinese threat, or at least put it in a deep freeze.

The Chinese PLA simultaneously violating the LAC in Ladakh’s Chumar sector was true to the pattern of their behaviour. But there was an assumption made that it was probably the work of PLA generals acting without Xi’s approval. Happens when the Indian strategic mind gets conditioned by its Pakistan experience. But the illusion ended in the course of time as the generals involved in the Chumar adventure, instead of being punished, were all promoted.

Nevertheless, summit followed summit, and while Doklam was a warning, Wuhan again strengthened the impression that there wasn’t going to be a direct military challenge from China. Pakistan had limitations anyway, so military spending could wait.

There was probably some new concern, and it expedited the Rafale process. Yet, the purchase was pared down to 36 instead of the minimum 65 or thereabouts that the IAF wanted, with the same confidence in personalised diplomacy: A war is not a possibility. Or, as Vajpayee had written in his most famous poem, jang na hone denge (we shall not let a war take place). It was a strategic blunder.


Also read: Fort Modi is impregnable despite China, Covid, job losses. Only one leader can defeat him


The Balakot strike and the skirmish the day after was the first warning that India had allowed its edge to fray over time. In the air, for example, the PAF outranged the IAF in beyond visual range (BVR) missiles and more than matched it in Airborne Early Warning (AEW) resources. It was still, however, seen in the Pakistan context. China was not top of the mind, though the development of border infrastructure had gathered some pace.

Until 20 April this year, when the Chinese came knocking rudely, first with fisticuffs, then primitive violence and sizeable forces making deeper intrusions. Why did the Chinese do this? Why did they choose this time? Were the changes in Kashmir and the assertion to take back Aksai Chin their only provocation?

This is where we bring up our original point. That Modi made a strategic blunder of Nehruvian proportions — presuming no war can happen now, and the Chinese won’t be a military threat and risk their economic interests. But why did we follow on to call it half a blunder?

Because the call that a conventional war was near-impossible was correct. So, he was half right. But the understanding of what will guarantee peace was flawed. For that, India had to increase spending on defence after almost a decade of waffling under the UPA. The key to peace in our difficult region is to always maintain a punitive superiority over Pakistan and a deterrent posture with China. Both had suffered for lack of investment in the military.

The Chinese were watching. Remember the Vajpayee-Brajesh Mishra doctrine of coercive diplomacy? It was predicated on a decisive and punitive Indian military superiority over Pakistan. They had also said then that for coercive diplomacy to work, the threat of war had to be so real, even we would believe it was for real.

It is likely that this is precisely what the Chinese are doing with us in Ladakh. They are employing their military advantage for coercive diplomacy. As the Army’s audacious response on the Kailash Range has demonstrated, this isn’t the India of 1962. But when we go making emergency purchases from the Americans, on the back of our recent defence agreements, of much-needed winter clothing, in some important ways, we’ve miscalculated and blundered again.


Also read: Modi’s bid to sway China’s Xi with personal outreach was a big error. India’s paying for it


 

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99 COMMENTS

  1. The new refrain from Modi’s dumb Hindu bhakths is that he is investing in new military technology – after he got a beating ! So we should appreciate him.

    They tell us Modi has cut red tape and reduced corruption in defence procurement (hmm, what was Rafale ?), so defence is now fast tracked. Importing defence equipment is a financial drain. How is Modi going to do this when he has sunk the economy ?

    One retired Hindu colonel who writes here tells us that his tireless Modiji is running and running to catch up for 70 years setback. Earlier, such dumb Hindu bhakts used to tell us that Modi works without break for 21 hours a day to build India.

    This type of Hindu even says that India got military setbacks from China because Congress and Nehru did not invest in military. Where did the nuclear weapons and rocket technology for delivery come from ? It is only because of Nehru. These cow worshipping Hindus of the BJP would not have been capable of that. They are undermining India’s scientific institutions with gobar research.

    Finally, I ask these dumb bhakts to tell us whether Modi lost land in Galwan or not. If so, why has he kept quiet ? Why should he not be accountable ? He claimed he was the national chowkidar, all his party members called themselves chowkidar. Chowkidar Jaitley, Chowkidar Shah…..

    The Modi supporter fabricates endless defences for Modi’s stupidities and wickedness. Demonetisation was done to win UP election at the expense of the national economy. Then they invented benefits – cashless economy, reduction of corruption, and end of Pakistani currency counterfeiting. The approach to the Chinese land grab is the same. After the loss, invent explanations of the benefits (all to be seen in the future !).

    I suggest the BJP Hindus learn to be objective – about themselves. The Chinese have called Modi’s bluff, they understand his character. The Hindutva Hindu is a paper tiger, or a drunken elephant which was fed toddy. They cannot run the country but they want others to consider them a global power.

  2. I don’t wish to get into any kind of argument with Mr. Shekhar Gupta on his reasoning and logic, which have made him opine that PM Narendra Modi, in his first Five years, made a strategic blunder of Nehruvian proportions (labeling it a Half blunder) with regard to assessing as a strategic possibility, India’s ability to avoid a war with China. Whilst history may see PM Narendra Modi’s strategy panning- out well for India or otherwise, its but yet another point-of-view as of today.
    Having read this I was particularly curious to find out about Mr. Shekhar Gupta’s pasts statements and vies’s about former PM Nehru’s and his strategic blunders in the context of Kashmir, Pakistan, China, and in terms of his (Nehru’s) policies in connection thereof. I scourged the nether hours (maybe nit well enough) but found nothing!!
    Hence I was happy to surmise that finally, Mr. Gupta has indeed had indirectly accepted (both in print and video) that former PM Nehru did make strategic blunders during his unfettered tenures as the PM of billions of blind-folded Indians, with regards to some of his policy decisions on Kashmir as well as his foreign policy approaches in dealing with Pakistan & China. Personally, I am inclined to believe that history has proven his blunders to have had gargantuan adverse proportions for India.
    I think of Mr. Shekhar Gupta as a well-respected journalist with a large readership & viewership, who has to try really very hard to stay neutral, impartial and intellectually honest, due to (what I think is) his extensive past exposure to many a left leaning liberals and the puedo secular “lyute’re’ lot!
    Only time will tell how PM Narendra Modi’s strategic initiatives and priorities will ultimately turn out for India, its security and global standing, but for one thing I don’t need to gaze at a crystal ball! And that is Mr. Modi’s wisdom, honesty, his personal integrity, his single-minded nationalism and his vision to see a safe, secure, and self reliant India! He has, throughout his political career, visibly & naturally stayed clean (read incorruptible), committed, and simple, which is much more than can be said for so many others in the past, in politics.
    .Vande Mataram!! …..Bharat mata Ki Jayá!

  3. Mistake of 60 yrs to be undone in 6 yrs, how is it possible!!? SG is a sickular he can’t see the good things namo has done. Let me elaborate

    1. People have been saying we need to increase defence budget vis a vis the GDP. Namo easily did it by reducing defence budget and brought down the GDP. Problem solved!

    2. vehicle sales reduced so he ensured that fuel prices remains high therefore we can balance it out

    3. Cashless economy was ensured by demonetisation and allowed people to save their money by not being able to spend during that time

    4. To ensure All the Black money was brought back to India he created an easy route, by bringing electoral bonds

    5. In order to maintain social distancing during lockdown he allowed migrants to walk back home even though it pained him severely to avoid overcrowded buses and trains

    6. Covid Deaths as a %age of the population is the 2nd lowest in the world after China. Don’t believe people when they say we have the 2nd highest no of deaths in the world

    7. He has launched govt funeral service schemes (1st in India) in UP for Dalit rape victims Free of cost

    I would like to write more but he has done so much in 6yrs that we need more of this great man. I don’t care what sickulars say, our India has changed and we are headed to greatness. Namo is even growing a special beard for the occasion. Cheers to the beard!

  4. Any hunan can make a blunder, Chinese, Indian Nehruvian or RSS, et al.
    Cabinet committees in Democracies have advantage of checks and verification to reduce gravity in errors. All PMs have had atendency for autocratic decision making. Some more others less.
    In national security matters this is dzngerous for the country. Despute ckear evidence that China was the major threat, we followed an appeasement policy. For Pakistan, which was less than eighth of our economy, leaders indulged in politivak bashing up for electoral advantages.
    This imbalanced national security policies has revealed the weaknesses in Ladakh. Say what we may, but for daring initiatives of officers and men, the country would have been humiliated again. We do not have sustainable capacities to maintain operations. The asymmetry in firepower; operational and strategic logistics compells us to bargain, notwithstanding from some positions of rekative advantage.

  5. Completely disagree with this biased , superficial and amateurish attempt to deal with such a strategic issue. The article should have also factored in 2 critical changes after 2014. 1) Increased efficiency in defence procurement due to lower corruption and faster decision making 2) Massive increase in spending on infrastructure along indo china border. Had Modi been blindsided by his own assessment he wouldn’t have increased infrastructure spend. Hope you will issue a response factoring the above inputs.

    • Increased efficiency in defence procurement due to lower corruption …..Ha, ha, ha.

      Heard of the Rafale scam, dumb bhakth ? That is channeling public money to a failed Gujarati businessman to create a new business for him, in which he has no background.

  6. It may be that BJP has not done everything SG was expecting. For the first time since independence India fought back Chinese aggression . Just 8 years ago MMS and Narayan pushed the aggression under the carpet and media played ball with that government. If Namo had not reached Pakistan and China in initial stages after 2014, SG, RD, BD , NDTV, Congress and may be Western countries would have blamed him for not trying to build bridges with them. That was only for the optics. Building roads and infrastructure in border areas is proof that he himself did not believe it. As far as , defense budget is concerned, SG does not factor in wastage due to payments to middle men and kickbacks in previous regimes.

  7. As per SG, Modi should have done home work even before he invited Xi to India for diplomacy or Modi should have been a clairvoyant. Easy to say after the steps were taken, and jab was taken to the face(Doklam). Will Modi commit that mistake ever again? May be a better question. But only time will tell. Modi seems to be taking steps against China militarily. He may not have taken enough steps economically(as to how to suffocate China). SG or any author, please write about what you recommend or what you would do from now if you were the PM. That would help. Why rehash the old incident again and again? If you must rehash an old incident there are Hathras, Ballabhgarh, failing economy,…..There are a long list of real blunders.

      • Congress left behind a legacy of corruption , work shirkers , incompetent sycophants ,no performers ,a system on the drag .Now Modi had followed a
        policy of Sabka sath sabka Vikas with a fatalistic out reach in total absolute sense without seeking accountability and imposing penalties .He normally doesn’t believe in wasting time and making enemies on above mentioned lot as he knows such people exit in great numbers .He normally doesn’t act by the way of purge .He has lost Parrikar , Sushma ji and Jaitley ji and now faces a talent crunch of honest reliable talent .The BJP is a mediocre party without systems to recruit honest talent and nurture it .It doesn’t have such systems in place .Most importantly they are a bunch of thankless rough people without any basic talent on interaction ,aticates , awareness ,vision , ability to assess problems ,fatalistic tendencies to easily antagonise any respectful person ,no system to listen to some bodies problem ,slamming the telephone on face , just lying for no potential reason .Infact there is no grooming .So there is no culture on substrate and innate value .How can you expect such a organisation to contribute to party high offices persons with substance and Calibre .Such persons wouldn’t survive .They will just suffocate .Such a organisation just survives on till there is no other alternative . You can see Mr Modi has deployed a police Walla as a NSA who happens to engage in so called Samiksha of our Defence forces service chiefs along with CDS in the presence of our honourable Defence Minister , without having relavant background in millitary operations , millitary equipment , warfare strategies and tactics , challenges and feasibilities in space warfare ,viral pandemics , biological warfare , logistics and many other aspects .We also face a serious problem with a opposition which left a sick system and this opposition has turned to follow unethical practices with anti India maladies intentions.End result is that the economy will suffer to some extent but will come up on the strength talent & vitality of its people . Another serious issue is that The Indian Government with its judicial and bureaucracy has not been able to implicate the major financial offenders like Nirav Modi ,Choksey ,Reddy bros , and many others including political offenders ,subverters and likes .There is a lingering weakness in almost all institutions .Mr Modi cannot be implicated for all disfunctionality in such a jungle of chaios .

  8. It is very much strange that a senior journalist is spreading fake narrative by writing that Mr. Modi has ignored the threat from China by welcoming their President . Mr. Modi and Indian armed forces were/are fully aware of threat to national security emanating on two fronts simultaneously or individually on western front only . Every action, reaction , development in defense matters is done after doing what is called SWOT -ANALYSIS .- (strengths, weakness, opportunities and threat analysis. ) No decision regarding defense procurement, troops mobilizations , deployments are taken in air-conditioned chambers of PMO only. There are well developed SOP = standard Operating Procedure s which are to be adhered to . Most of work that pass on from Change of guard– meaning change of government is only and mostly –A WORK-IN -PROGRESS –handed down by outgoing government. Every one knows what was state of defense preparedness during rule of 10 years of UPA. So waiting for appropriate time or taking time while preparing our forces to a particular level where they can take upon any enemy on equal footing is not negligence. China is objecting to development of Borders roads, bridges , airports today in 2020. What would she would have done if that exercise was taken in 2014 or 15.. Even in 2020 when both nations are in full military gear at northern borders, no Country — not even powerfull China is willing to risk escalation into a full-fledged war . It due to not weakness but due to SWOT appraisal by both countries . MR. Shekhar don t worry India is in safer hands today than it was so at any time during at least three decades . Story of 1950 to 1964 is one not to be remembered.

  9. Why you try to reduce my esteem in you by writing such articles?
    In all last 70 years or so, It is only Modi, who has invested in defence forces so much.
    Starting from Nehru, who said, India does not require Army to last UPA, where for full 10 years, nothing was done for Army or even border infra structure.
    Rafael brouhaha not withstanding, Modi pursued the deal with single minded zeal.

    • Nehru invested in nuclear technology and rocketry. That is why India is not over run by the Chinese.

      If dumb RSS Hindus had come to power in 1947 instead of 2014, they would have invested in technology for gomutra.

  10. My advice to Hindus is to stop being delusional and be objective for a change.

    SG asks the question about Galwan ‘Why did the Chinese do this? Why did they choose this time? Were the changes in Kashmir and the assertion to take back Aksai Chin their only provocation?

    SG does not answer the questions he poses. Of course it was Amit Shah’s action that invited the beating. He threatened to use force to get Aksai Chin, so the Chinese gave the riposte. Since then, Shah and Modi have been quiet as mice. In any other country, the PM would be forced to resign. In India, SG will say it was only a half defeat, and bhakths will tell us that Modi has the upper hand and Chinese are quivering.

    In 1962, China was isolated and friendless, and Nehru took on the role of an interlocutor for the Chinese, to introduce them to the world, forgetting that China was a Security Council member. It was a typically patronising Hindu attitude. It irritated China and she gave India a beating to say that China can stand on its own.

    Realistically, Modi has weakened India in all ways imaginable. The economy is gone. Modi has worsened relations with ALL neighbours. Any one can say the solution is to hike defence. But without a strong economy, where is the money for defence ?

    Modi has given up on the economy It has gone out of his hands. His priorities are elections, and CAA-NRC.

    Chowkidar chor hai was the refrain at the time of the Rafale scam. Now it should be chowkidar dar phuk hai.

  11. if “the call that a conventional war was near-impossible was correct”, where was then a need for a guarantee for peace? Isn’t an absence of war, called PEACE?

  12. India should expect to pay a high price when it started series of anti-China stance with US alliance since 2014, sabotage all China’s BRI & CPEC, making existential threat to China sea lanes with QUAD, militarizing borders heavily, changing status quo by abolishing A370 & illegal annexed of Tibet Ladakh with new official map to include Arsai Chin, while Amit Shah boasting of taking Arsai Chin by force.

    So PLA moved into finger4 to pre-emptive any India military advancement, which is well inside its 1959 LAC. These borders dispute are due to Brits Raj unilateral map drawing against China agreement, Brits never occupy these lands even in its hay day.

    But India under Nehru Chanakya expansionism, think its natural heir of all Brits Raj ex-colonial lands spreading from Arabia- Central Asia -Asean to Tibet. So it invaded every neighbors since 1947.

    Seeing China been tireddown by USM threat in Eastern, IA make incursion into China 1959 LAC believing China will not dare to go to war, repeating Nehru’s 1962 mistake. There it get repelled by PLA, and stand off started.

    Although India military chiefs are making lot of empty threat esp Rawat, double down with 200,000 troops despatched, they know clearly IA has zero chance to fight powerful PLA. IA fuel & ammunition stockpile can not sustain more than 10 days war in 2017 Doklam standoff. Ladakh will be even more difficult to supply in highlands esp winter.

    India has put itself into tight corner of no return when it play brinkmanship to ramp up border troops and crossed into Chinese LAC to occupy 7 peaks during negotiations, hoping to have more bargain power.

    But PLA has no rush to retreat, since its troops are well supplied with good infrastructures to survive the 6mths harsh winter. It can afford to drag on until winter set in without making any compromise of its consistent 1959 LAC position.

    There is no possibility for weak India logistic to supply 200,000 of 50~100kg/ day/ soldier basic needs, putting aside ammunition & medical supply if war breakout. Even US took 9 mths to prepare for 100,000 soldiers needs in 30days Iraq desert war.

    Now India army will spent its coldest winter -40deg in 20yrs without adequate winter supply, with winter fuel likely run out within weeks. This prolongstand off and arm racing will also bleeds India resources greatly denying it any meaningful dev. India will suffer irrevocably due to Modi’s team blunder & misadventures.

  13. India got freedom 73yrs ago after near 800 years of slavery under various invasions!
    education, health, development, better governance, negligible corruption, defence, technology are the seven things we must to do !
    What we do is old pride stories, fighting and vote begging based on caste, language, region, religion and political fights!
    If we don’t learn from history, let us be ready for slaves to chinese or taimur or european type military or economic invasions in near future!
    Problems known! History is open! Solution is at least 51% development on 7 factors above !!
    W e are wasting lot lot of energy from Nehru till Modi , in empty symbolisms without actual progress!
    Try India or Cry India!
    Jai Hind!
    Dubai Rajan

    • Indians are slaves of Brahmins. It may be better to be slaves of the Chinese, it is worth a try. They are more scientific and rationale than dumb bhakths.

  14. Not expected from SG an article like this. Would have done more analysis before coming to such conclusions. SG may not agree my point of view. So be it.
    We need to accept the fact that blunders committed over the time cannot be corrected overnight. Also, India defence system were part of high end corruption, where tge intention is to buy from outside at exhoridant prices with kickbacks. Polotical brass never bothered about national security and was proved time and again with scandal after scandal. Possibly I can think that Modi was buying time to built infrastructure first as otherwise our military reach to north east is heavily hampered. We have seen in the recent past about connectivity and infrastructure development. What was not done in 60 years cannot be expected in 6 years.
    SG should be unbiased, if he truly cares for this nation.

    • ‘What was not done in 60 years cannot be expected in 6 years.’

      Why ?

      In 2014, Modi came on TV adverts saying he could give 60 years Congress development in 60 months. So why does he need more time ?

      As for defence kickbacks, we saw that in the Rafale scam, so what has changed since the chowkidar came ?

  15. More than Modi his predecessors have to be blamed for allowing China to overtake India many times both militarily n on economy .Where Modi is to be blamed is in trusting Xi the same way Nehru did his counterpart.Further,for some reason Modi allowed India to be subordinated n dependent on China on trade.This has been more damaging n China took advantage on military front too.Unless Modi brings about total reduction in economic dependence of India on China the behaviour is not going to change.Militarily India cannot be equal to China but has to build adequate deterrance to make China think twice before any midadventurism.Finally never take China for granted.

    • ‘Unless Modi brings about total reduction in economic dependence of India on China .’

      Modi encouraged India’s dependence on China. You go to a trade show, Gujaratis will be hanging around the Chinese companies – they want to be their sales agents. The goods will be made in China and the Gujarati is a stockist. Sometimes, it comes in pieces and is assembled in India.

      I know some one setting up an industrial plant. I asked where he is getting the plant from. No Indian company makes it. I asked if he was going to get it from Europe. He said he cannot afford European, he is getting it from China. I asked if there would be any govt. barrier. He said there would not be. Apart from boycott tokenism, there is not much India can do. The Patel statue was built in China. Hindus gods like Ganapati are made in China.

        • MAKE IN INDIA launched in 2015 was a flop. They invited foreigners and did a Bollywood style show to launch it – but the stage caught fire ! That is how pathetic they are.

          Modi launching MAKE IN INDIA in 2015 is irrelevant – the question is how much manufacturing is done in India. It was always low, and it decreased under Modi.

          That dirty Yogi claimed he is going to make UP a world industrial hub and attract companies leaving China. No one came. Anyone can make any announcement.

          Arnob Goswami said in his pre-launch advertisements of his Republic channel that it was going to be on a par with the BBC. All he made was a show of Hindu megalomania.

          Baba Ramdev said he was going to create a university like Oxford in 5 years.

          Go and check the facts on Hindu claims – and Hindu achievements.

    • India has always had limitations in how much defence spending can be done and after 1985, we were always behind China in this. We did well in missile development, certain acquisitions of large aircraft form USA and in building 272 Sukhoi MKI. We slipped up badly in delaying Rafale by 3 -4 years, in LCA production and in our submarine projects. NDA has also delayed quite a few defence projects .
      But Shekhar Gupta has pointed out quite rightly that Modi and Nehru are in the same kind of dilemma and there is no easy way out.
      Agreed that adequate deterrence is the way forward. We have to buy some 5-10 years to build up adequately.

  16. Dishonest journalism. Tabloid stuff, full of lies including of course the headline.

    First thing Modi govt does is raise a mountain strike corp. And against who? Bhutan? Nepal? (Chinese defence commentators have grudgingly acknowledged after Galwan that this is one of the best in the world)

    10 years SG’s beloved UPA spent on negotiations for the next gen fighter aircraft. Antony, the do not take any decision, defence minister admits in a 2013 interview that govt dies not have money for new fighter jets.

    Nonetheless, when Modi came in 2914 he quickly realised India could not wait and in Jan 2015 immediately ordered Rafales off the shelf. SG says why not more? Coz’ there is limit on how much we can afford.

    OROP army pensions for which Congress did nothing when in power but started making loud noises when NDA took over, costs the nation approx 100,000 crores a year. We can have that — or two new squadrons of Rafales every year. What would SG prefer?

    And these Rafales would start coming in 2020. Hence the hosting of Xi to buy time.

    Meanwhile fierce response given in Doklam to signal this is not 1962.

    SG glosses over UPA’s and his beloved MMS’s complete cowardice and paralysis after 26/11. Uri and Balakot called out the bluff of Paki’s nuclear blackmail. And you needed a spine to do that. Which MMS and Chidambaram lack.

    And if SG looks hard enough he will notice the amount of military hardware NDA is buying from US and Israel– to defend against Sri Lanka?

    In short, SG is being typical SG. Modi is far smarter and has a depth of strategic thinking that Lutyens hacks like SG would like to pretend does not exist. All in their service to the Nehru Gandhi clan.

    • Just check the following,
      From 1980’s to 2014, an average defence budget of India is around 2.2 % of GDP. Why it is very low during 2014 to 2019?, The numbers are between 1.5 to 1.9. Are this numbers wrong?

      • Duh. My friend quality of spend also matters. If defence canteens were buying more booze and stuff, that too would come under defence spending.

  17. If Modi was so sure about his bonhomie with Xi ping what made him to substantially push infrastructure projects along LAC during first 6 years of his tenure from Laddakh to Arunachal Pradesh. It was not for tourism. Defence procurement process is lengthy and time consuming. Dokhlam was another case showing firm action of Modi. Even 8 months after intrusion no political commentator is able to give precise reason for chinese action. Easy to criticize Modi and army but experts were warning consequences for military action and then on 29th and 30th August army took control over important heights in kailash range, and chinese were surprised and shocked. No one was saying that Xi committed blunders in March 2020 but in view of above developments, Xi’s whole exercise is under question. If India takes tough stand on Kailash range. Modi tried to improve relations with china does not mean he surrendered India’s interest.

  18. I know, we don’t want to ape the West. It is not always good to compare India with the West. But the Defence forces in their character are the same the world over. The soldiers are similar in how they are made up –  especially the emotional connect – the lot of the soldier is same anywhere in the world. Here I look at some points as to how Militaries are shaped up in Democracies, besides equipping them to the teeth (which is NOT the case here in India, as this article also suggests). Two illustrations follows – please read up on the internet to know more….

    Aspect 1: Getting the right people for the job

    A few days back Mark Esper, the Defence Secretary (equivalent to our Defence Minister) of the USA (now not holding the post) was in India in connection with the ongoing 2+2 dialogue between India and the US.

    Mark Esper is a West Point (equivalent to our National Defence Academy) graduate, Esper joined the U.S Army and served as an infantry officer with the 101st Airborne Division. He was deployed and saw active service in the Gulf War and subsequently served in the Army National Guard. After leaving military service, he was a Senate staffer, chief of staff at the Heritage Foundation , and Vice President for Government Relations at Raytheon (a Defense Production company). He received his Bachelor of Science in engineering from the United States Military Academy in 1986. Esper was a Deans list student at West Point and received the Doughlas MacArthur Award for Leadership.He received a master’s degree in public administration from the JohnF. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard in 1995 and a doctorate in public policy from George Washington University in 2008.
    He has since been relieved by President Trump a couple of days back, for holding up principles of soldiering.(Read more about it on the internet)

    Aspect 2. The soldier is the most important component in a mIlitary.

    A few years back, during my last visit to the USA, I took some driving lessons to get used to left hand driving. My driving school instructor was a Putrorican. Once he learnt I was a veteran (Indian Army) he took extra care, interest and made me drive on the pike and expressways (usually not allowed by driving schools). The respect , that was the word he used, extended by the people to soldiers was to show the gratitude of a Nation to those who have / had a contract with the Nation to keep the country safe at the cost of their own lives. I know what he meant. He continued, a few dollars (he did not accept a tip) will not make a veteran rich or a citizen poor – but these little acts of recognition will go a long way in keeping the fire burning in the stomach of a soldier; it is this fire that spurs the soldier to face the bullets on the battlefield.
    A Nation has to ensure that this fire in a soldiers stomach is kept burning always.
    Yes, a Nation needs to invest in the Military as a wholesome unit, if it wants to Defend its sovereignty and have a say in World Matters.

    • Thank you for your motivational lectures about the special esteem you think you are entitled to.

      The Indian army is mostly used these days to suppress other Indians – killing and raping as in Kashmir. The US solider does not have to do that. So don’t compare yourself with the west.

      The Indian army has not distinguished itself against more powerful opponents – China in 1962 and Galwan recently. So how can you come out with the generalisation that all armies are the same and are comparable ?

      The most famous, battle distinguished army was the Red Army. Read about their performance in the Battle of Stalingrad, Kursk, Operation Bagration and the Battle of Berlin. The mauled the Germans. Even the US Army acknowledges that. No Indian soldier can fight like that.

      • One more madrasa chap with an agenda. Did you try to introspect why did militancy came into fore after 1990 and how Pandits were raped , killed and driven out of Kashmir by militants. You do not want to talk about them as you are a madrasa chap or a Pakistani. What about Bangladeshis who were abused and killed . Your own Muslim brethren . Do not want to talk about it.

  19. I think the assessment that defence was neglected in UPA is accurate. In Modis time we did not have the money to spend on defence because the buniyaad for a better economy had to be done. Otherwise we would perpetually be buying weapons. Modi had to buy time before defence self sufficiency was made. But this event has precipitated what was at the back of NDA s mind. I believe the situation can be salvaged and all credit to our army for turning the tables for forcing China to negotiate. China will come back. They have a good idea of our capabilities. We dont know what they are hiding . We will be prepared starting now.

    • It cannot be that NDA is let off the hook for our being caught badly unawares . Also the UPA delayed rafale too much and also the submarine project.
      But they also initiated many aggressive moves , for which credit must be given , for example:

      Guess when the 4 forward airfields in Ladakh were operationalised ? Between 2008 and 2013
      Guess when the Atal tunnel under the Rohtang Pass was started ? 2010.
      Guess when the Daulet Beg Oldie road construction started ? before 2013
      Guess when two Mountain Dvns for NE were raised with 30000 fighters ? Between 2008 and 2011.
      Guess when SU 30 fighters were deployed at forward airfields in NE ? Before 2013.
      Guess who purchased all the advanced transport planes and the best anti sub aircraft in the world ? A K Antony.
      But guess who is taking all the credit for this?
      You guessed right.

  20. It is surprising that Shekar Gupta instead of coming out with his own spins on the latest subject which is Bihar electioon results right now has chosen an issue not scintillating. Looks he too is confused with Bihar results as with others in his echo system. As far as defence analysis is concerned the less said of him the better it will be. He is out of touch with the corriders of power for at least six long years. He knows of defence related issues only as much as anybody else knows.

  21. Another bogus writeup by Shekhar Gupta.
    Whatever happened to your analytical and writing abilities, couptaji?
    Did you notice couptaji that India under Modi has actually procured weapons and taken care of the military all of which had been ignored by the Congress for so many decades? Did you notice that China has made a Himalayan Blunder by challenging India under Modi? Seven years ago China would have walked all the way to New Delhi and the Congress leadership would have lined up to offer flowers to emperor Xi.

    • Ha ha i really like the ‘coupta ji’ pun… Many wouldn’t get it, but in a way it would describe Shekhar’s journalism one day.

  22. To be honest Mr. Gupta, very far fetched and tenuous reasoning. It is like pulling data near and far to fit the curve. Has the tone of a thesis that needs to be completed within a deadline and hence imagining a pattern where none exists. Always loved your centrists thoughts and certainly this one is very thin and specious.

  23. Given the unequal size of the economies – keeping aside for a moment the other front – it is not practical for India to get into a competitive spiral with China. That is what crushed the Soviet Union. Fortunately nuclear weapons give India ultimate deterrence against two hostile neighbours, acting most of the time in concert. Once that impregnable safety is there – which China’s other neighbours do not possess – it should be possible to sit with China – also Pakistan – and have a serious dialogue about the modus vivendi that can last for the next fifty years. 2. We are not in China’s league. China knows that, as does every single actor in the unfolding Asian drama to our east. The policy mix we have chosen – read Dr Kaushik Basu’s recent tweet about how a country that was in the top five in growth is now in the bottom one fifth – is widening the gap. 3. Not just as a dove but as a good human being it hurts that on Diwali, soldiers are being killed, on both sides of the LoC. Solemn flag draped coffins will wend their way home, to the small towns and villages from where these faujis come. Leaving widows, orphans, grieving families, replenishing the pool of mutual hatred. Vajpayeeji understood the need to break this vicious cycle.

  24. Bkts should also note that for the last six years the defense budget has been continuously reduced in real terms. So much so the army complained let alone buy new equipment the budget hasn’t got enough money to pay for the outstanding EMIs. Do not just blame the previous govts.

  25. Modi turned blind eye to indiscriminate imports from China which destroyed jobs in India.From incense sticks to power plants. Agarbatti industry simply collapsed, BHEL was twiddling its thumbs and nobody cared.He should be held guilty and deserves to be punished for that. But he is no wimplike A K Anthony and MMS so his response to Galwan was robust. He has a soft corner for china because it is a place where he was welcomed as CM and when whole of western world denied him VISA

  26. SG as usual wants to be one foot in liberal camp and another in the Modi camp. Here is the weak and dishonest line.

    ‘Because the call that a conventional war was near-impossible was correct. So, he was half right.’

    This is wrong and an attempt to say that Modi did not do as badly as Nehru. There was no conventional war because Modi accepted meekly surrendered the land and did not even admit it. The party that had said it will take back Aksai Chin by force became silent after it got a second beating under Modi’s watch.

    If Modi had tried to take back Galwan, the Chinese would have been prepared for conventional war, which they would have won. Fearing that, Modi kept quiet, in the hope China is appeased. But China has tested India and found it is a paper tiger. There was no conventional war because India backed down after losing land in Galwan. India backed down after Pak. shot down a plane and captured the pilot. It did not go for a second strike let alone a conventional war with Pak. because it risked losing more Abhinandans.

    Hence, SG does not persuade anyone that Modi did only a half Nehruvian blunder, and not a full one.

    The reason India cannot match China is due to the Hindu penchant for delusions and wishful thinking, and the incapacity to analyse, calculate and act.

    As for more spending more on defence, what is the point of mentioning it when Modi has wrecked the economy ?

    • And what is your penchant for Hindu bashing? You get some cheap thrill, an orgasm, effort at salvation, 72 hoors? Do you 24/7 go in autotrance mumbling “Hindu is bad”!!
      Take help before you lose it totally.

  27. Doklam should have woken up the establishment. Despite India claiming initial victory the ground realities suggest Chinese consolidation in Doklam.

    The real question is why and how Modi failed to see the writing on the wall. Yes much like Nehru who was indoctrinated to believe that Chinese will not attack India, Modi and the establishment had similar beliefs. But I am really happy to see the Ladakh conflict. It hs rudely woken up India. This can only be good omen for the country. The full truth.

  28. Usual balderdash from the lefty rag. It is quite the opposite infact. Modi is staring down China which no other Indian PM has done. I haven’t seen military mobilisation on such a massive scale ever & I have lived through Nehru era as a child though. UPA govt during its 10 years emaciated India militarily & economically by not procuring military hardware, neglecting border infra, giving free run to China in trade & running a massive deficit against it. Modi has tried to do his best in 6 years of his rule to reverse it. He tried all options including diplomacy & now multilateral mobilisation of international alliances. Don’t think public is foolish to believe the trash your hate filled columnist churn out.

  29. If Modi had blundered even 5% compared to the HIMALYAN BLUNDER the Chinese would have been in India up to Tawang and Leh in matter of 10 days, 5 days more than in 1962 due to lac of roads strategy of the Saint.
    The 5 years that current government spent playing marbles , swinging on the banks of the river etc. resulted in holding off the Chinese for the past few months leading to some position of strength as was acknowledged by Generals.
    Modi seems to have balanced the finances which are not unlimited to spend, only on defense while there are other pressing needs to make up for wonderful handling by successive dispensations since independence.

  30. I am a Modi Bhakt, but I am a bigger Desh Bhakt and sincerely believe that the Modi Govt seriously blundered in reading China. Chinese actions and behaviour with their neighbours in Asia over the last 7~8 years has been aggressive and intimidatory. The writing was on the wall for all to see. But as always our leaders always have been overtly emotional in diplomacy. We should only be considered with “our interests” and not try to moralise or get emotional about it.
    Modi can learn from this statement made by the British statesman and Prime Minister, Lord Palmerston, “we have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”.

  31. The author is biased for reasons best known to him. If China is not hellbent on expansionism activities–,the Dhoklam infiltration, parading the Indian oceans, then what he thinks China is doing..
    .Actually it is the other way around. India has already sent the message, that India is not into war but could throw other means (economic, imports restrictions) to drive the point. But Defence should always be sound given the “polkhol’ of the entire gamut of our neighbors. Modi has done the right step, considering the true colours of these so called ‘Neighbours’.

  32. It is a blunder, whether half, quarter or three-quarter, not only of Modi, but also of his predecessors. Indira Gandhi could be an exception. Love affair with China, after the debacle of 1962, was re-started by Vajpayee when he was Minister for External Affairs in the Janata Party Government. This was taken forward by Rajeev Gandhi. Better that we wake up at least now to the reality that China can never be our true friend.

  33. Any camaraderie with China is only likely to bring India’s downfall. This is one fact that Modi could never comprehend. As of now it is more important to manage the economic crisis and the COVID crisis. This will give us greater financial stability to manage the Army. China deserves a good spanking. If we don’t give them one, then someone else will. USA is desperately waiting to teach them a befitting lesson.

    • ‘China deserves a good spanking. If we don’t give them one, then someone else will. USA is desperately waiting to teach them a befitting lesson.’

      So far China has given India repeated spankings. What makes you think India can give one ? It sounds vain Hindu bravado.

      The US desperate but does not know how. China has the upper hand.

  34. I think this article is also half right. A 6 yr incumbent cannot set right policy paralysis of 60 yrs. Then when he tries look what the jaychand’s like congress & bhushan & sibbal did in Rafale. So, the commentator should try to be unbiased. Anyway, Modi & Doval will do whats needed.

  35. I don’t agree.
    Let us accept that we are much poorer than China and not try to imitate them.
    We don’t have the resources for big time military modernization.
    Modiji’s summits were basically to buy time. He and our defense brass always considered China as threat number one.
    Our biggest weakness vis-a-vis China was in the sorry state of our border infrastructure.
    He invested heavily in upgradation of it.
    And it is paying results. Our armed forces are today much better prepared because of it.

    • You sound like usual bhakth.

      ‘Modiji’s summits were basically to buy time. ‘

      To buy time for what ? More Chinese investments in Gujarat ?

      Become real. The Hindu chowkidar with 56 inch allowed China to take land and kept quiet.

    • Guess when the 4 forward airfields in Ladakh were operationalised ? Between 2008 and 2013
      Guess when the Atal tunnel under the Rohtang Pass was started ? 2010.
      Guess when the Daulet Beg Oldie road construction started ? before 2013
      Guess when two Mountain Dvns for NE were raised with 30000 fighters ? Between 2008 and 2011.
      Guess when SU 30 fighters were deployed at forward airfields in NE ? Before 2013.
      But guess who is taking all the credit for all this?
      You guessed right.

  36. May be war is impractical but a shred lower threat is real and more dangerous, Taking out money from military’s funds is sucking too much of blood from body which bound to collapse one and all.

  37. it is very sad that we do not have a genuine right party.
    all the past govt. with the exception of narasimha rao and vajpayee govt., are all left oriented. it is not only because of the ideology, but also because of the reluctance to let go of power.
    it is high time whereby we have a mechanism for deciding defence spending which is not dependent on the whims of fancies of the govt. in power.
    because of this left orientation, we are slowly losing our demographic advantage in making india economically prosperous. time is running out.
    no politician in india is really bothered about it.

    • ‘because of this left orientation, we are slowly losing our demographic advantage in making india economically prosperous. time is running out.’

      You need a reality check. The extreme right has been ruling for 6 years.

      Left orientation created a middle class of 300 million with 10% growth. That was killed by right orientation and demonetiastion.

      You speak like the proverbial right wing Hindu bhakth. The nation has become useless because of your type.

  38. THIS GOVT., IS FAILURE IN ACHIEVING INTERNAL GROWTH AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS. OUR G D P IS GOING DOWN AND DOWN AND INCREASING OUR GOVT, DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN EQIPMENTS, LOCALLY ALIENTING FROM DALITS AND MINORITIES. DALITS AND MINORITIES
    CONSTITUTE 40% OF OUR POPULATION.

  39. PM Modi has made many Himalayan blunders – Chinese one is the least of them. By his ineptitude he has condemned India to be a low to middle income country perpetually, sown divisions which will last for decades if not centuries and condemned expertise and education in the eyes of Indians by his ill-advised “Harvard vs hard-work” remark and attack on institutes of excellence like JNU. Nehru made blunders but he also had many credits to his name. Modi will have no worthwhile credit to his account when history is written. Remember Nehru is being judged now – 50 years after his death. When he was alive, PM Nehru was an immensely popular man and only fringe groups like the RSS were opposed to him. Today the RSS is mainstream and will be judged by some other fringe group in the future.

    • Absolutely correct, well written. These Modi bhakts know their man’s failure, but where can they go ? Who likes to admit they had delusions ? They will keep fabricating stories to justify their folly.

  40. Shekhar Guptha conveniently forgot that it is Congress led government, which has neglected modernizing Army and what ever deals congress made were inferior quality purchases due to greedy congress, Army purchases and infrastructure improved thousand times under Modi and it’s still improving ,congress Bhakths like Shekhar Guptha will never wrote a single column about congress negligence of Army and infrastructure for 70 years.

  41. Why India? Because the land in issue does not involve humans. And therefore not attract too much world attention. This is to show to the world that China is not afraid to go to war. And the targets are countries around the South China Sea. To show that economy and war are two separate things for China. Again reducing exports helps China now because it becomes less dependent and therefore a less cost has to be paid for a war. China is getting ready for a war in South China sea.

  42. Shekhar is not entirely justified in his comments but he is broadly there. No Indian PM wished for a war during his or her tenure and will try to avoid it, if it is possible. Was Modi not ready for a war? This is difficult to answer but the way Armed Forces responded (land, air and naval) shows that once it was clear that China had to be tackled, they were there ready to fight. And they put Chinese on the backfoot and gained tactical advantages as well. Did Modi err in anticipating Chinese move? Yes but no one else did as well including SG and his sickular strategic gang members.

    But Modi used the opportunity to give free hand to the Armed Forces to deal with the situation and now, we have a different CDS talking tough and drawing red lines for China. No future government can now pussy foot with the Chinese. The Armed Forces have proved their capability and wrested the primacy in the CCS. We must thank the Chinese for their misadventure as well as Modi for the brilliant response.

    One issue which causes confusion is – have Chinese occupied out land? The simple answer is Yes if we look at our official map. But we lost it before and during 1962! We have the façade of LAC and our patrolling rights but that area is not in our control. Also, effectively we are physically at the 1959 claim line of Chinese. Under Modi, no area under our physical control since 1962 is lost but how will we take back the area up to official map of India? No one dares to talk of the reality on the ground and redraws the official map!. Instead we beat around the bush on this issue.

    The fact is that we had incompetent defense ministers for ages except one Manohar Parikar who was there for a brief period. As a result, it was External Affairs Minister who had higher weight in the CCS. Modi did work on infrastructure, DRDO, equipment modernization, CDS and related reforms etc but it was not possible to bridge the neglect of so many years in his first term. But strangely, the Galwan incident changed everything and suddenly, our Armed Forces came alive and politicians and External Affairs ministry took a back seat. Modi could not afford to rely on diplomacy alone.

    We should be eternally grateful to Col Babu and those 20 brave men who sacrificed their lives for the country and changed our defense posture for ever. Now Armed Forces are being allowed to do their duty!!

    The way Armed Forces have responded has effectively and checkmated Chinese is a matter of pride for us. In fact, Chinese have lost their face completely. And suddenly, Pakistan is no where on the scene, as we are now dealing effectively with the biggest enemy on our border!

    Of course, our economy must do well so that we can keep up but we do not have to equal Chinese in every sphere but check mate them effectively all the time. And we can do it on our own and with Quad, Russia, France and Israel!!

  43. Shekharji a free media is afraid of talking of the failure of the government to take strict POPULATION CONTROL MEASURES.

    Shekharji a free media is afraid of talking of how the church is involved in proselytizing activities amongst tribals through fake naxalites and NGO’s .

    Shekharji why a free media is afraid of talking of how the muslim vote is mostly on religious basis and nothing to do with secularism.

    Shekharji why is the FREE media afraid of admitting that even after a affidavit was given in COURT that SHRI RAM is a myth. There were no RIOTS.

    Shekharji why is a free media afraid of talking of that HINDUS DON’T BELIEVE IN CONVERSIONS OR proselytizing, hence the only secular religious belief in INDIA .

    SHEKHARJI WHY IS THE FREE MEDIA AFRAID TO SAY INDIA CAN ONLY BE SAFE IF IT DOESN’T DENY HOW CONGRESS ASSIDUOUSLY KEPT INDIA WEAK ON THE MILITARY FRONT AND IT WILL TAKE YEARS IF NOT DECADES TO RECTIFY THE DAMAGE.

    • Shaileshji why aren’t you asking Shekharji why did the UP govt burn a Hindu girls body without her family’s permission? Or was she not Hindu enough for you?

  44. When you remember Modiji hosting the Chinese Premier in Mahabalipuram and Gujarat, you might have thought that Modiji did not perceive China as a threat. Or maybe he didn’t want China as a threat as his immediate goals were to saffronise the nation and other such nation building activities.

    And since his personal charm didn’t work with Xi Jinping, he has cosied up with the Quad members as he had no other option.

    Which tells you that Modiji has not achieved much in his foreign affairs. For some reason, our neighbours and quite a few countries either don’t respect Modiji’s politics or Indian diplomacy as such.

    We need to wonder why keeping aside our thinking that we are closer to USA than before because right now that has accelerated only because of China.

    • Everything you have written on Modi’s delsuions is correct.

      The only thing is Modi does not know what benefit there is in US-Quad. Those countries do not have borders with China and they are not going to put sanctions if China makes incursions. He is lining up with Quad because India is not a self sufficient power, it has made many enemies, and Modi has nowhere to go.

      Basically, Modi does not how to make the economy grow, and manage healthcare and security. He is only good at inciting against minorities, and winning elections thereby. But Hindus are content with that.

      • Who the hell are you. In all your bigoted comments you solely target Hindus as a community instead of engaging in rational debate. Personally I do not agree with BJ and am a TMC suppoter, But people like you are as harmful and poisonous as andh bhakts.

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