Global Pulse: The Syrian war might trigger direct conflict between the US and Russia

Heightened tensions

“Far from winding down, Syria’s civil war is threatening to trigger direct conflicts between the United States and Turkey, Israel and Iran, and even the United States and Russia,” editorializes the Washington Post. The only way to defuse the situation is through carefully executed diplomacy, which the Trump administration seems to lack at the moment, especially with Putin trying to establish Russia as a dominant force in the Middle East.

“Though U.S. forces appear able to tactically defend the pieces of eastern and southern Syria their allies control, the Trump administration lacks the leverage to pursue its stated goals in the country, which are to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State, stop Iran from entrenching its forces there and promote a new political order that excludes the Assad regime. Israel, too, is failing to achieve its strategic objective, which is to drive out Iranian forces. On the contrary, Russia, Iran and Turkey are betting they can eventually push the United States out of Syria, allowing Turkey to overrun the Kurds, the Assad regime to regain full political control and Iran to dig in on Israel’s northern border. Unless the Trump administration is prepared to make a larger military and diplomatic commitment, that is the most likely outcome,” the Washington Post writes.

Another explosion in Gaza

Gaza, which has been entrenched in constant conflict, is now dealing with another crisis: a financial one. “At the heart of the crisis — and its most immediate cause — is a crushing financial squeeze, the result of a tense standoff between Hamas, the militant Islamist group that rules Gaza, and Fatah, the secular party entrenched on the West Bank. Fatah controls the Palestinian Authority but was driven out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007,” explains David M. Halbfinger in the New York Times. 

“United Nations officials warn that Gaza is nearing total collapse, with medical supplies dwindling, clinics closing and 12-hour power failures threatening hospitals. The water is almost entirely undrinkable, and raw sewage is befouling beaches and fishing grounds. Israeli officials and aid workers are bracing for a cholera outbreak any day.” Israel placed a blockade on Gaza over a decade ago, restricting the flow of goods and people.

“For Hamas, the deteriorating situation is leaving it with few options. The one it has resorted to three times — going to war with Israel, in hopes of generating international sympathy and relief in the aftermath — suddenly seems least attractive,” Halbfinger writes.

A Chinese backfire

“These days the worry among policymakers is not that babies are too numerous, but that Chinese born in the 1980s and 1990s are procreating too little,” writes the Economist. 

“The reason is that as China grows wealthier—and after years of being told that one child is ideal—the population’s desire for larger families has waned. Would-be parents frequently tell pollsters that they balk at the cost of raising children.”

More education and increased opportunities are pushing up the average age of marriage, which is now a global trend.

“Without a clear strategy, efforts to push procreation will remain piecemeal and ineffectual,” the Economist stresses. However, each strategy might have dangerous repercussions if not handled properly.

“One big concern is that officials may end up trying to nudge busy and ambitious women into accepting more domestic roles. Leta Hong Fincher, an author and academic, argues that state media have helped popularise the concept of “leftover women”—a pejorative term for unmarried females in their mid-20s and later—in an effort to panic educated, urban Chinese into settling down sooner than they otherwise would. She thinks such propaganda is growing more aggressive. If that is indeed the kind of solution that is gestating within the bureaucracy, the hoped-for baby boom will be stillborn.”