New Delhi: Barring some forward locations in Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, the Chinese presence in Ladakh has only grown since May this year with the deployment of additional equipment and defensive structures such as trenches and berms at existing encampments, satellite imagery experts have revealed.
This is despite multiple diplomatic and military talks between the two countries, including four corps commander level talks, and discussion between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Defence sources have told ThePrint that there has not been any movement from the Chinese positions since the last corps commander level talks between 14 corps commander Lt Gen. Harinder Singh and his Chinese counterpart Major General Lin Liu on 14 July.
After the last talks, the Army had said that both sides have agreed to discuss “complete disengagement” in Ladakh, but had added that the disengagement process at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) would be intricate and require complete verification.
Talking to ThePrint, Sim Tack, a Belgium-based military analyst with Force Analysis and Statfor said that a continuous growth of the Chinese presence in Ladakh has been observed over the past months.
“This means that we have seen the deployment of additional equipment and new encampments, as well as additional defensive structures such as trenches and berms at existing encampments,” he told ThePrint.
He added that China is also still working rapidly to upgrade the roads connecting these positions, which will facilitate future deployments.
“The only locations where we have seen a reversal in this trend have been the forward positions at Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, where mutual withdrawals have led China to remove its encampments within several kilometers of the Line of Actual Control,” he added.
Some military experts, however, said such Chinese build-up might be “posturing” and a display of their equipment, while some suspect it could be “deception”.
Also read: Chinese deception at LAC is just like Pakistan in Kargil — former Ladakh corps commander
‘Satellite images could well be used for display’
Some military experts felt that such images might as much be for display by the Chinese to be captured by commercial grade satellites for psychological operations.
Former 14 Corps Commander Lt Gen. P.J.S. Pannu told ThePrint in an interview that when considering satellite images for analysis, multiple factors have to be taken into account.
“For example, even at one metre resolution for a satellite, you cannot recognise if there is a soldier standing there or some other object or a stone,” he said.
“Also the fact that these satellites are crossing over and they are taking pictures when they are going over the area and may not even have the same angle when passing over the area,” he added.
Pannu said that for a professional military like the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the way these pictures were displayed on TV, it seemed they were more to show (their display of equipment) than to hide.
“In normal warfare, one is conscious in the military that satellites should not be able to detect where they are. So if the PLA is trying to put in the open lot of tanks, tents and trucks, it was more of a posturing … We don’t know how many are real and how many are dummy,” he said.
The Chinese, he said, are masters in creating tunnels, and hiding their intentions and military forces.
“Why would they want to show it? So, I would like to look at those things, which are not picked up by the satellites, instead of those, which have been so easily available in the commercial grade satellites,” he added.
Lt Gen. Vinod Bhatia (retired), former director-general of Military Operations, said satellite imagery could surely give inputs, but they needed to be confirmed by other intelligence sources.
“As far as China is concerned, it could be a judicious mix of actual build-up and posturing,” he told ThePrint.
He explained that day-time military movements were not common, and camouflaged concealment were not so easily picked up by satellites.
“But in this case, it possibly wants to show things to be picked up by commercial satellites,” he added.
Also read: The Indian Right cares about national security, except when China tip-toes near our territory
‘Tents, vehicles, infrastructural equipment look to be in use’
However, other experts believe that such large-scale deception may be difficult to pull off.
An anonymous satellite imagery analyst, who uses Twitter under the handle @detresfa, said deception is regularly observed in static environments such as airbases, research and development facilities, among others.
“However, in most of the data we have seen of Chinese positions in Aksai Chin, the various tents, vehicles and infrastructural equipment all look to be occupied and in use,” he added.
Military grade satellites, he said, can be answered on the basis of the country.
“For example, with the United States, President Trump’s tweet of the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran back in 2019 showed the sophistication of US spy satellites in orbit that not many people knew about,” he said.
Tack said that the commercial satellite imagery is very accurate, and they have relied on various different sources of imagery (such as Planet, Maxar, and Airbus) that provide up to 30 cm resolution to study these particular deployments.
“The potential for deceptions is definitely real, and this is something that we try to uncover in our analysis of satellite imagery by applying our analytical expertise relating to doctrines and procedures of the Chinese military, as well as ‘pattern of life’ analysis, where we see constant activity and movement of vehicles and equipment at these positions,” he said.
Tack added that a lot of the Chinese camouflage nets have a red hue indeed, which could be meant to stand out in satellite images.
He said that while there are limitations to satellite imagery analysis, deception can never be truly ruled out. “But in the current situation in Ladakh, we believe that the levels of activity observed, indicate this is not a large-scale deception effort.”
‘Inadequacies’ in assessing satellite images
Sources in the defence establishment said that commercial data as is available today has varying levels of resolution and accuracy, some of which are much better in terms of spatial resolution, radiometry and location accuracy.
“However, there are inadequacies of assessment of these satellite imageries due to lack of understanding military image interpretation as well as actual alignment of LAC,” a source in the defence establishment said.
The source, who deals with satellite imagery, added that satellite image interpretation is a specialised activity with niche skills gathered over years of experience.
Also read: India, China disengagement at LAC could take until winter, de-escalation will happen first
Rahul Gandhi of Indian national Congress is more like a joker who fishes on troubled water of Indian politics. The track record of Indian National Congress is to loot national wealth rampantly when in power as dreaded dacoits by keeping Indian public involved in dirty politics of caste, religion, sectarianism. Glaring example for rise of regional political parties is the result of congress gross mismanagement & looting.
I recommend to all educated nationals to uproot this venomous seed of British Empire once for all as Congress today is symbol to Nehru family dynasty hell bent to devour India. Let’s join together to operate this cancerous wound from Indian heart for our survival.
Absolutely right 👍
I’m often suprised why most of our people fail to think futuristic, I mean, think three four decades ahead
India cannot afford China as an enemy like Pakistan. Correct me if I’m wrong. Moving closer to USA simply triggers China because that’s directly threatening Chinese
Modi did well with informal summits with Chinese President but fell for the Trump’s trap which triggered China
Even if China is destroyed, USA will come after India sooner or later unless we are willing to act as American puppets
Considering these crystal clear facts the best way to India is avoid fights and grow silently. A war in Indian soil will destroy the whole nation and it wouldn’t matter if China is dead or alive when we’re dead
Now everyone can attack me for commenting the truth. Afterall that’s what we are best at
I agree with N V KOTIAN 100%. We have no other alternative. Delay may result in we losing valuable soldiers. Liberation of Tibet also must be our priority.
I fully agree with the first comment of Mr KV Kotian
China will make all efforts to win by just bleeding India economically, by making our force spend heavily on maintaining huge forces at the so called LAC.
And to keep the Indian Army on its toes they will create fake attacks.
And in the unlikely eventuality of war, india cannot sustain a fight beyond 15 to 20 days.
Deception or otherwise, India should embark on liberation of Akshay Chin first and then POK before venturing liberation of Tibet with the help of friendly nations. CCP China is a criminal organization and should be paid by the same coin. Now the time is ripe and suitable. Strike the iron while it is still hot.
There should be no revival and renewal of economic ties unless and until our land occupied by the CCP China is fully liberated.
Very true. India should start action against China immediately. It is not understood the reasons of delay in attacking China . POK and Aksai chin should be liberated . This is high time.
This article is the best example of how readers are deceived….it takes us nowhere and the person writing only vague assumptions ….what the article highlights is concern on our abilities to assess the situation and resultant preparedness to ward of actions from enemy but people in the authority also seem to be dong their routine 9 to 5 desk jobs
What a silly article…………….the whole world knows now that Modi will dare not fight China……….He cant even utter the word ‘China’ in last two moths ….so the question of posturing become irrelevant !!!!
THE PURP OSE BEHIND CHINESE AGGRESSION IS ECONOMICALLY WEAKEN INDIA. ALREADY WE ARE FEELING THE PINCH OF IT. WE HAVE TO NECESSARILY SPEND SIZABLE AMOUNT TO DEFENCE.
SO WELFARE EXPENSES ARE CURTAILED. SO THEY HAVE ACHIEVED THEIR PURPOSE. NOW WE
HAVE TO DEPEND ON U.S.A. ULTIMATELY INDIA SHALL BE U.S.A. COLONY REPLACING HARD EARNED INDEPENDENCE. CAN WE SAY IT IS FAILURE OF DEPLOMACY.
Why do you say “we”? you are obviously a Pakistani.
Gentlemen with 60 years of rulling by one party alredy 60 sq miles been lost ,,don’t you remember or eles,you don’t want to mention the party which has responsible for all this mess …. with out diplomatic support form this government india would have been pinched by China again luckily government sitting in center is strong and stable to counter china miscalculated adventure……don’t worry we will fuck this Woolf or Batman…
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