Having the former Congress leader Narayan Rane on board could help the BJP edge out the Shiv Sena and Congress in some parts of the state, say political analysts.
Despite his declining political clout, former Maharashtra chief minister Narayan Rane, who decided to align his newly-formed political outfit with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), may spell some immediate political benefits for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Having Rane on board not only helps the BJP in aggregating support, but also gives it a tool to edge out the Congress and the Shiv Sena, political analysts said.
“Rane is seeking political asylum, while the BJP is trying to aggregate support at a time when there is severe farm distress and rural discontent,” said Prakash Bal, a Mumbai-based political commentator.
“Although Rane has minimal political capital at this point, he has the power to be of nuisance value to both the Shiv Sena and the Congress,” he said.
Rane was originally with the Shiv Sena, working with the party over four decades right from a shakha pramukh (area chief) to chief minister in 1999. He walked out in 2005, switching to the Congress along with 12 Sena legislators after friction with the Sena’s political heir Uddhav Thackeray. Relations between Rane and the Thackerays have been extremely bitter since then.
Rane has quit Congress after a 12-year stint, strongly criticising the party and its leaders, and later announced the launch of his own political outfit, the Maharashtra Swabhiman Paksha. Earlier this week, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis met Rane and invited him to the NDA fold. The leader is also likely to get a state cabinet berth.
Rane has a history of dominance and friction with his own allies, having picked fights with Sena and Congress leaders.
However, analysts say this won’t matter for the BJP for now as between Rane and the Shiv Sena, the latter is more capable of causing trouble.
“Although people criticise the Shiv Sena for double standards, it is successfully painting a negative image of the BJP in the minds of the public,” said Deepak Pawar, who teaches civics and politics at Mumbai University.
“For the Sena, Rane is a barking dog. He may not be able to bite, but ultimately a barking dog can also cause nuisance,” he said.
Moreover, Rane’s role as industries minister in the erstwhile Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) government is under the scanner in an inquiry that Fadnavis ordered into allegations against Shiv Sena Minister Subhash Desai for irregularities in the denotification of industrial land.
The bellicose leader who hails from coastal Sindhudurg had significant influence in the Konkan belt, a region that the BJP has been unable to get a foothold in. Although Rane’s grip on the region has loosened with the leader having lost his constituency to the Shiv Sena in the 2014 polls, analysts say his support may still help create space for the BJP there by chipping at the Congress’ base.
Presently, his association with the BJP may help the party gain control of a handful of gram panchayats in the Sindhudurg district in the two-phase gram panchayat polls across 34 districts this month.
“An alliance with Rane will give the Congress a jolt. BJP has decided to have a Congress-free Maharashtra so we are taking a step in that direction,” said a senior BJP minister, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The Shiv Sena may not like our move, but why should we think about a party that does not think for a single moment before criticising us?”
However, over the past one year, the BJP in Maharashtra has been battling the perception of being an outfit that aligns with politicians with criminal backgrounds or graft taints for electoral benefits. The decision of Rane, who has braced allegations of money laundering, to align with the NDA may only strengthen this perception.
“What is problematic for the BJP is the perception of taking in whoever is willing to come in,” said Pawar. “It may not be of immediate concern to the party, but in 2019, if the BJP tries to prop up its image as a clean party once again, there will be a backlash. Manpower management is one thing but after a point you can’t win a perception battle.”
The fight against corrupt parties and leaders will be one of the themes for the Gujarat election, according to a leading columnist. That message could be dented if Mr Narayan Rane is inducted into the state government next door.