RBI has retained its inflation projection at 5.4% for the current year. Uncertainties in food prices and volatility in global crude oil prices continue to keep 4% target out of reach.
Geopolitical conflicts & new cold war have upended oil, various food and commodity markets. Climate-change issues will impose other costs. So, prices will rise even if demand is weak.
Findings are of relevance for RBI, which has followed inflation targeting policies since 2016 but had to write to govt in December 2022 explaining why inflation had overshot target.
Many experts argued against retaining 4% plus-minus 2% target, while some wanted to scrap the framework altogether. But it provides stability, can help growth.
Year-on-year method misses trends in prices, so month-to-month seasonal adjustment should be used. According to this, May-December avg inflation was 4.05%.
RBI must work towards better transmission mechanism, for which India needs deep & liquid bond market, competitive banking sector & regulatory framework.
Recent data does not support any dramatic shift away from the dollar. As per IMF, the share of international transactions conducted in dollars has declined from 56.90% to 56.77%.
Increase in employment subsidy, Rs 500 crore for estate revamp, new townships in pipeline—but land cost, power breakdowns and inspector raj top among key worries for industry leaders.
CDS Anil Chauhan says future space capability will not be built by government agencies alone. ‘It will be co-developed with industry, start-ups, and technology innovators’.
American objectives are unmet. They neither have muscle nor motivation to resume the war. As for Iran, the regime didn’t just survive, it’s now led by more radical individuals.
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