Today’s keenly-watched election results won’t tell us what 2019 will look like

An election officer puts an indelible ink mark on the finger of a voter (representational image) | PTI

Results of 5 assembly elections could reflect voter mood but will come with limitations that will prevent these polls from being a semi-final to 2019.

New Delhi: Tuesday’s results, whichever direction they lean towards, will not be a reflection of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls even though they will have an important bearing on both the BJP and the Congress as well as on the larger political dynamics.

The verdict of perhaps the most awaited set of assembly elections held in five states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram — may reflect voter mood across regions, but will come with many limitations and riders which will prevent these polls from being a semi-final to the big 2019 final.

The Modi versus Gandhi contest

The one significant difference between the state elections and the Lok Sabha polls is the leadership factor. For the BJP, the incumbent chief ministers — Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan’s Vasundhara Raje and Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh — are the key faces of the party, the dominant factors for or against whom the voters will cast their vote, and not Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

This is unlike other state elections in the recent past — Uttar Pradesh and Tripura most notably — when the party has fought entirely in Modi’s name.

In the current polls, Modi has had to play second fiddle simply because the respective regional leader had a far more powerful presence in his/her state, for good or for the worse. The 2019 polls, however, will be designed entirely around Modi, with him being an overwhelming part of BJP’s campaign.

Similarly, for the Congress, these elections have revolved around their state leaderships and how well they have been able to build ground support for the party and run the campaign — most significantly in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Party president Rahul Gandhi has been a mere accessory and not really the leader the Congress is trying to use as a rallying force.

Lok Sabha, however, will be projected — at least by the BJP — as a direct Modi versus Gandhi battle, vastly distinct from these state elections.

Anti-incumbency factor

For the BJP, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are tough battles owing to a three-term anti-incumbency sentiment. In Rajasthan, Raje’s widespread unpopularity has meant the party is pushed to a corner. In all three states, the Congress has played on the anti-incumbency factor and used that as its main weapon.

The question, therefore, is if the anti-incumbency sentiment against Modi will be as high and give the Congress as effective a platform to operate on. Whether the Congress is able to offer an alternative vision instead of merely being anti-Modi will to a great extent determine how it fares at the hustings, and how much the BJP is damaged.

The alliance question

A motley group of opposition parties have been trying to come together to forge a mega alliance to counter Modi in 2019, but cracks appear in these efforts ever-so-often. In these state polls, for instance, Congress failed to get the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party on board, as a result of which the BSP might dent it in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh to some extent.

In Telangana, the Congress did manage a coalition with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Left, but the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is fighting on its own and by most estimates, seems to have a clear edge.

The BJP, meanwhile could not play its cards right in the state. Estranged from its ally TDP, the BJP had grand plans of making inroads in the state by enhancing its own numbers, while also finding itself more lucrative allies. It never quite managed to find a friend in the state.

These state polls, therefore, are about half-baked marriages — a factor that could change in 2019. Which side manages its alliances right and how effectively the opposition can come together will be a significant determinant of what the general election will look like.